COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[BosnianBlue]

The Czech Republic has as well (though not just us but I think around 18 countries).

The news over here yesterday said we're up to introduce 14 day isolation for anyone enterii

I would be pleasantly surprised if they have one ready before the end of the year.

I wouldn't. As someone pointed, they will probably live test it in the way it wouldn't be possible in the West.

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

It’s looking like a reasonable figure to expect, no? They have announced today we need at least 60% to get it for herd immunity. We are looking at 400k-550k deaths if the rate is around 1%. Obviously that rate may change over the coming weeks and months, but it won’t be far off.

They have said this is coming back every single year from now on as a seasonal disease, so we need herd immunity. So yes, they are sacrificing some of the elderly now to protect more in the long run.

No. The death rate is much higher for the vulnerable but they will need protecting, herd immunity or not. The 60% will be predominantly from the less vulnerable sections first but even then we'll still need to protect the vulnerable. The number of deaths will NOT be 1/2 million more doing this.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Was going to post the same, exactly. Johnson picks his experts because they will agree with his stance, not because they are correct. Pretty much the entire health community is saying the gov's response to this has been complete shite.

I think that is an unlikely representation, at least as I understand it.

More likely:
Collect data => run various models => identify possible options => select one.

I don't think it is likely that Johnson has picked 'experts who agree with him' - I think it more likely that the government have selected one of several possible approaches (for whatever reason, we don't know) that the CMO thinks is supported by the science and modelling.

 

[Blue Hefner]

What I observed watching Johnson yesterday imo, was a man who looked shell shocked and who had been briefed and told of the 'real' numbers and potential impact on the UK as a whole. We are all without doubt forever suspicious of our politicians, this guy more than any for me, but as I watched him it felt like to me and yes have a dig if you wish, he was a rabbit in the headlights, there was something more he didn't or wouldn't say along with the scientist and head of PHE. I hope to god I'm wrong.

I didn’t see it yesterday but I watched the first one in full. Apart from my thought at the end of ‘well, is that it. Just wash our hands’. He looked worried, very worried. Now is that because he knows what’s really going on, is worried he’s out of his depth and/or that it will look bad for him and him Premiership

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

The 'nonsense' is all around...when a PM comes on TV backed by his 'experts' tells the nation to be prepared for the loss of loved ones...he and they have not much of an idea of how to deal with the thing that is in our midst that would save individual lives. That the only thing to do and what they've decided upon is to allow the virus to make it's hit where it does, in the hope that lots will survive and thus create a band of immunity for the future. The greater good theory...sacrifice the few for the sake of the many and just pay lip service to everything else. But if you think that's 'nonsense' of course, then that's your opinion and you are quite entitled to it, as I think I have too, whatever the 'nonsense' I may base it upon.

'This nonsense is all around'! Really. Give me a link to these figures that isn't a newspaper .. go on.

 

[Chippy_boy]

As I’ve said, I think all strategies will lead to health services being fucked and the majority of the population being infected.

Theyre damned if they do and damned if they don’t and the idea that a lockdown now will result in people not obeying it at the crucial time, makes sense.

What about SIngapore, Hong Kong, South Korea?

I put it to you that this is what we should be trying to achieve:



Not this:

 

[TCIB]

The news over here yesterday said we're up to introduce 14 day isolation for anyone enterii


I wouldn't. As someone pointed, they will probably live test it in the way it wouldn't be possible in the West.

That is a good point.

 

[Marvin]

This is what I don't get with folk, our scientist can't be questioned they are right 100% and we should back them, Where as near enough most other countries scientists are doing the opposite.

It's not as straightforward as that.

South Korea and China were forced into a total lockdown. Italy too. They were ascending the peak. A strategic choice was taken out of their hands.

The Chief Scientific Adviser to the government was very honest yesterday.

There are two choices. You do what South Korea and China have done or you immunise the population by controlling the infection to last as long as possible at a reduced rate of transmission.

If you suppress something very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back at the wrong time so our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not to suppress it completely. So because most people get a mild illness, to build up some degree of herd immunity as well, so that more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same we protect those who are most vulnerable.

However, China's strategy seems to have worked. It has not yet bounced back.

It is very tempting to see that evidence and just say shut social contact down for a month, and then emerge into a Covid19 free world. Of course it will still be there in tiny numbers but I think with every day that passes, and China improves, then this really seems like the way to go. We will probably be forced into it soon. When you go from 500 to 1000, then 2000, 4000 you really have little choice anyway. That's what happened in Italy. they were forced to respond and had no alternative. The same thing will happen here.

 

[TCIB]

It has hit Ghana, Africa was always going to suffer badly from the virus and this news sadly may mark the beginning of that.

 

[BosnianBlue]

It's not as straightforward as that.

South Korea and China were forced into a total lockdown. Italy too. They were ascending the peak. A strategic choice was taken out of their hands.

The Chief Scientific Adviser to the government was very honest yesterday.

There are two choices. You do what South Korea and China have done or you immunise the population by controlling the infection to last as long as possible at a reduced rate of transmission.

If you suppress something very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back at the wrong time so our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not to suppress it completely. So because most people get a mild illness, to build up some degree of herd immunity as well, so that more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same we protect those who are most vulnerable.

However, China's strategy seems to have worked. It has not yet bounced back.

It is very tempting to see that evidence and just say shut social contact down for a month, and then emerge into a Covid19 free world. Of course it will still be there in tiny numbers but I think with every day that passes, and China improves, then this really seems like the way to go. We will probably be forced into it soon. When you go from 500 to 1000, then 2000, 4000 you really have little choice anyway. That's what happened in Italy. they were forced to respond and had no alternative. The same thing will happen here.

But that is the main issue here - how do you control anything if you say the football matches with fans are fine; people coming from italy or wherever are fine; schools are fine... you're not controlling anything, you're giving it a free ride and doing quite opposite of what they are talking about.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

What about SIngapore, Hong Kong, South Korea?

I put it to you that this is what we should be trying to achieve:



Not this:

It’s a bloody tough call either way. Our government is taking the approach that when other countries relax their lockdowns it’s just going to happen again and they still won’t have immunity.

For the UK, it is our outright plan to get most people infected, to protect us when it comes back next year and the year after.

No idea if we are going to be proven right or proven spectacularly wrong. Only time will tell. It’s all very overwhelming, thinking about what’s going to happen.

 

[PragueBlue]

However, China's strategy seems to have worked. It has not yet bounced back.

I suspect it will bounce back when they relax their measures, unless there is a vaccine by then.

 

[Marvin]

What about SIngapore, Hong Kong, South Korea?

I put it to you that this is what we should be trying to achieve:



Not this:

The British government argument is that society needs the immunity from infections otherwise we will get repeated infections.

They say this explicitly. It's logical, but falls if a society locks down and then survives free of infection.

Logically though in a connected world what is to stop repeated infections? Nothing. And yet China remains effectively Covid19 free. The most populous place on the world. It can be done. Or maybe we should wait some more.

 

[Ban-jani]

Pick your expert though.

I have. The ones specifically tasked with evaluating our country and that are leading the government policy.

What’s the point in having these measures and not following them?

 

[PragueBlue]

Logically though in a connected world what is to stop repeated infections? Nothing. And yet China remains effectively Covid19 free. The most populous place on the world. It can be done. Or maybe we should wait some more.

Definitely wait some more. Wait until China is considered safe and people start going there again, some of which will no doubt have the virus and it will start up again.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

The British government argument is that society needs the immunity from infections otherwise we will get repeated infections.

They say this explicitly. It's logical, but falls if a society locks down and then survives free of infection.

Logically though in a connected world what is to stop repeated infections? Nothing. And yet China remains effectively Covid19 free. The most populous place on the world. It can be done. Or maybe we should wait some more.

Are they not still in lockdown though? We can’t make conclusions on that until they relax the restrictions. Once they start moving around again, travelling to and from other countries, then we can say whether it worked. They may be back at square one.

 

[Ban-jani]

You're doing exactly the same though. Experts all over the world have chosen the other approach, but you lined up with your BoJo and his experts. Where is the difference?

Because they’re specific to our country - the public and the health service.

 

[meltonblue]

It’s an important point as it proves some people only believe the experts when it suits.

Some do. What should happen though is listen to as many experts as possible and then you can see the overall balance of opinion.

That would be (ironically) the scientific approach.

 

[shemnel]

just one thing to note as this moves forward;

many countries are now NOT testing those who self-isolate and only those who are hospital admissions, meaning case detection stats in those countries are not a reflection of the spread throughout a population, only the hospitalisation rate.

this will make things more difficult to interpret whether certain strategies have worked or not.

 

[Ban-jani]

Whereas ýou only believe the experts you want to believe.

The guy you dismissed on QT is also an expert. There are many experts expressing disbelief at our Government's approach.

Speaking for myself, I do not trust this Government but they may be right in their approach, I am not qualified to judge, time will tell.

However, for the Government course to be the correct one a lot of experts are going to be wrong.

You don’t because you have your agenda against the government. There’s nothing they could do that would please you and you’ll no doubt blame every single negative aspect of this on them.

The QT guy is the only guy being trotted out, he’s also been in the Guardian attacking them.

Why is it just him being repeatedly given the platform? Where are these other experts?