BlueNirvana
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COVID-19 — Coronavirus
- Thread starter urban genie
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I agree. Just wanted to point out that the latest projections are encouraging, and we can all join together in hoping the number of deaths is at the lower end of the scale. There’ll be plenty of time for me to criticise the government if it turns out they got this wrong, let’s hope I don’t have to.Personally I'm going to wait until there's evidence he made the right calls before I offer my gratitude and praise. Would love nothing more to do so down the line. As it stands I think we are way too early into this to call it one way or another.
kevin horlocks wand
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I agree. Just wanted to point out that the latest projections are encouraging, and we can all join together in hoping the number of deaths is at the lower end of the scale. They’ll be plenty of time for me to criticise the government if it turns out they got this wrong, let’s hope I don’t have to.
I think we can all agree that we can point the finger at the WHO now , we don’t have to wait until this is over to point a Big finger at those bell ends.
this could have been mitigated and contained into parts of the world where it originated and initially spread to, if those tools had not given the completely wrong advice that global travel was still ok and flights in and out of affected areas is perfectly fine, carry on nothing to see here......
goatersnipple
Well-Known Member
If it keeps going as it is do people think the lockdown could be just for 3 weeks.I agree. Just wanted to point out that the latest projections are encouraging, and we can all join together in hoping the number of deaths is at the lower end of the scale. There’ll be plenty of time for me to criticise the government if it turns out they got this wrong, let’s hope I don’t have to.
I hope so
Raw numbers need context. Dont disagree that our reaction was slower, but scale is important. Basic supply side economics.What has the size of population got to do with it? They were quicker to lock down, quicker to get supplies in and have been testing 2000 people a day and going for double that this weekend whereas we have only just starting to test 1700 people this weekend.
See my previous reply. I was not commenting on policy, but on raw numbers with no context.Pop of UK 67m
Pop of Germany 83m
Population size is irrelevant. Having the capacity within our respective systems to cope is relevant. Germany is heading towards testing 500,000 a week thereby copying the South Korean model of identifying carriers and quarantining them as quickly as possible. There were no excuses about size of population limiting what can be done.
purplenose
Well-Known Member
I agree. Just wanted to point out that the latest projections are encouraging, and we can all join together in hoping the number of deaths is at the lower end of the scale. They’ll be plenty of time for me to criticise the government if it turns out they got this wrong, let’s hope I don’t have to.
Exactly this.
Whether Boris has backed the right horses will come out in due course.
As it stands my gut feeling is that our government has done as well as any other. Yes maybe the shut down should have been earlier in my far from expert opinion. Apart from that and of course an alarming amount of suggestions that vital gear is not getting to the Drs and nurses must be of concern. Seems most other countries are in the same boat there other than the likes of China, Japan, S Korea.
I am amazed that I find myself defending anything Tory but the mad thing is they are fucked either way. If the deaths are low then rather than praise the government they will get ripped to shreds for over reacting and destroying the economy for nothing.
If we get hit hard then they will be screwed for not moving fast enough and causing 10s of thousands of deaths.
Not a chance in my opinion. End of April minimum would be my guess and that’s being optimistic.If it keeps going as it is do people think the lockdown could be just for 3 weeks.
I hope so
kevin horlocks wand
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Not a chance in my opinion. End of April minimum would be my guess and that’s being optimistic.
agree that’s my thoughts ( but also hope ) and I think it will be qualified with still washing hands and social distancing and if you don’t follow the rules they will shut it down again and probably have to.
The joys of leadership eh mate? No-one forced Boris to go for the top job. Looking on the bright side, if he comes through this Brexit will be a piece of piss ;)Exactly this.
Whether Boris has backed the right horses will come out in due course.
As it stands my gut feeling is that our government has done as well as any other. Yes maybe the shut down should have been earlier in my far from expert opinion. Apart from that and of course an alarming amount of suggestions that vital gear is not getting to the Drs and nurses must be of concern. Seems most other countries are in the same boat there other than the likes of China, Japan, S Korea.
I am amazed that I find myself defending anything Tory but the mad thing is they are fucked either way. If the deaths are low then rather than praise the government they will get ripped to shreds for over reacting and destroying the economy for nothing.
If we get hit hard then they will be screwed for not moving fast enough and causing 10s of thousands of deaths.
The Light Was Yellow Sir
Well-Known Member
Fair enough. What you’re looking at though is what is called ‘excess mortality’ due to influenza. Public Health England take the average number of deaths between December and March and compares them to the rest of the year and comes up with an excess winter death figure, of which influenza is deemed to be the main cause.I’m not going to argue the point with you as I don’t collect the stats.
However I looked them up on the ONS website and that’s what it worked out at.
What is undoubtedly true is that based on current evidence, Covid-19 has the potential to kill more people and definitely will cause more hospitalisations than seasonal flu, hence the pressure the NHS is under.
What is also true, is that the vast majority of people, with many underlying health problems, ultimately die due to some sort of infection, which is what is happening with the Covid-19 patients.
gordondaviesmoustache
Well-Known Member
A number of reasons in my view.US deaths currently stand at 1,704. Why should their epidemic be any different to China, Italy, UK, Spain etc in general form?
Firstly, their healthcare system, whilst of a generally very high standard, is disjointed and lacks any form of cohesion. I also think the absence of a culture of healthcare being free at the point of delivery is likely to present very real challenges in dealing with this.
Secondly, because of poor and ineffectual leadership. Their head of state is clinically insane in my view. At the very least, he is providing little or no meaningful leadership or vision. He also underestimated this far more significantly than any other western leader, mocking its likely effects only a few weeks ago. They are woefully unprepared and lack effective decision making where it matters.
Thirdly, the size of the country will make this harder to manage and contain, than in European countries. It’s also correct to say that the amount of people that previously travelled around within its borders will have greatly accentuated this challenge in all but the most isolated northern states.
Fourthly, the numbers of people with underlying health conditions will be greater than any developed country, both numerically and proportionally; especially the clinically obese.
Fifthly, is the prevailing culture of recalcitrance and distrust of big government, especially within the more rural states. This will make operating and enforcing any policy around this pandemic (Federal or State) far more challenging and make the likelihood of social disorder far greater. This characteristic renders any comparison with China to be nugatory.
Sixthly, and this follows on from five, is the proliferation of firearms within the general population, which will present a range of challenges of their own which won’t subsist to anything like the same extent in European countries.
I could probably come up with a few more if I applied my mind more rigorously to the issue.
Rammy Blue
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There are some great words in there mate, ones I’ve never heard of and pretty sure never will see again. Exemplary, even for you.A number of reasons in my view.
Firstly, their healthcare system, whilst of a generally very high standard, is disjointed and lacks any form of cohesion. I also think the absence of a culture of healthcare being free at the point of delivery is likely to present very real challenges in dealing with this.
Secondly, because of poor and ineffectual leadership. Their head of state is clinically insane in my view. At the very least, he is providing little or no meaningful leadership or vision. He also underestimated this far more significantly than any other western leader, mocking its likely effects only a few weeks ago. They are woefully unprepared and lack effective decision making where it matters.
Thirdly, the size of the country will make this harder to manage and contain, than in European countries. It’s also correct to say that the amount of people that previously travelled around within its borders will have greatly accentuated this challenge in all but the most isolated northern states.
Fourthly, the numbers of people with underlying health conditions will be greater than any developed country, both numerically and proportionally; especially the clinically obese.
Fifthly, is the prevailing culture of recalcitrance and distrust of big government, especially within the more rural states. This will make operating and enforcing any policy around this pandemic (Federal or State) far more challenging and make the likelihood of social disorder far greater. This characteristic renders any comparison with China to be nugatory.
Sixthly, and this follows on from five, is the proliferation of firearms within the general population, which will present a range of challenges of their own which won’t subsist to anything like the same extent in European countries.
I could probably come up with a few more if I applied my mind more rigorously to the issue.
gordondaviesmoustache
Well-Known Member
It’s my job tbf xThere are some great words in there mate, ones I’ve never heard of and pretty sure never will see again. Exemplary, even for you.
jimharri
Moderator
Someone's chopping onions again!
Saddleworth2
Well-Known Member
those probably do the job pretty adequately.A number of reasons in my view.
Firstly, their healthcare system, whilst of a generally very high standard, is disjointed and lacks any form of cohesion. I also think the absence of a culture of healthcare being free at the point of delivery is likely to present very real challenges in dealing with this.
Secondly, because of poor and ineffectual leadership. Their head of state is clinically insane in my view. At the very least, he is providing little or no meaningful leadership or vision. He also underestimated this far more significantly than any other western leader, mocking its likely effects only a few weeks ago. They are woefully unprepared and lack effective decision making where it matters.
Thirdly, the size of the country will make this harder to manage and contain, than in European countries. It’s also correct to say that the amount of people that previously travelled around within its borders will have greatly accentuated this challenge in all but the most isolated northern states.
Fourthly, the numbers of people with underlying health conditions will be greater than any developed country, both numerically and proportionally; especially the clinically obese.
Fifthly, is the prevailing culture of recalcitrance and distrust of big government, especially within the more rural states. This will make operating and enforcing any policy around this pandemic (Federal or State) far more challenging and make the likelihood of social disorder far greater. This characteristic renders any comparison with China to be nugatory.
Sixthly, and this follows on from five, is the proliferation of firearms within the general population, which will present a range of challenges of their own which won’t subsist to anything like the same extent in European countries.
I could probably come up with a few more if I applied my mind more rigorously to the issue.
goat boy
Well-Known Member
If it helps anyone, weve been using an electrolysed water spray to disinfect everything in our house as it comes through the door, including all foods, plus me the toddler and the dog. Safe on food as technically you can drink it, but also kills 99.99% of lurgies on contact. The weirdest thing about is the idea that it doesnt smell perfumed and/or acrid like bleach etc and just looks like water so theres a bit of a leap of faith to it. Ours is coming from a firm in Dundee
Apparently bleach is only effective in cold water. According to the wife. I didn't know that.
Apparently bleach is only effective in cold water. According to the wife. I didn't know that.
Rammy Blue
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Let’s hope so, I’ll take no joy in being right.Neil Ferguson, the head epidemiologist who wrote the models half the world are following said we will now get much fewer than 20,000 deaths.
Hes got access to a lot more data than the public like number of people currently in hospital, on ICU wards etc. And hes come across as very reluctant to be positive before so I think he is probably right.
Someone's chopping onions again!
Just brilliant. Spanish onions here.
Gaylord du Bois
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FFS.You could've said to reduce temperature for fan ovens. I've just gone and fucking baked my new bank card !Another thing worth mentioning:
I have just put the post and the newspaper in the oven for 30 minutes. Apparently Coronaviruses are rendered non-infectious by 30 minutes at 75C, so I am giving it 30 minutes at 90C to be safe.
Provided you don't have a gas oven and you keep your post/newspaper well away from any heating element, this might seem like an easy and worthwhile precaution. 75C isn't going to set fire to anything.
The survival abilities on the surfaces of eight different materials and in water were quite comparable, revealing reduction of infectivity after 72 to 96 h exposure. Viruses stayed stable at 4 degrees C, at room temperature (20 degrees C) and at 37 degrees C for at least 2 h without remarkable change in the infectious ability in cells, but were converted to be non-infectious after 90-, 60- and 30-min exposure at 56 degrees C, at 67 degrees C and at 75 degrees C, respectively.
https://europepmc.org/article/med/14631830
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