right, BM virus control group - what happens if we're vaccine-less in the spring and there's no realistic outlook for one? discuss
This is the hardest question.
We do now seem to have a strategy, if unwritten and unclear, it being "Muddle along without killing too many people until a vaccine arrives"
I'm no epidemiologist, or public health expert, but it seems to me that we can't carry on forever if that vaccine doesn't arrive. I'd propose "Very gradually open up and take the awful consequences"
Here goes.
Right now there is a good but not certain prospect of a vaccine being proven effective (not necessarily rolled out) in the next six months. So, we should suppress the virus to as low levels as possible, primarily through huge investment in local test, track and trace (this is actually far cheaper than the economic hit of current mini-lockdowns, and allows a better quality of life).
*If* there is a succession of negative vaccine trial readouts, then we need to accept we can't control the virus in the short term, and gradually open up whilst attempting to limit the damage. Noting that this will kill perhaps a quarter of a million people, so require something like 10 months of deaths at 1000 per day, equivalent to the peak of the first wave (best estimates of herd immunity levels and fatality rates), it is is a very far from trivial challenge. I guess you can envisage a gradual relaxing of restrictions one at a time, perhaps along the lines of
- all remaining educational restrictions lifted
- household mixing relaxed say from 6 to 20 or something
- weddings, funerals relaxed from 15 to 50
- hospitality opening restrictions lifted, but COVID safe measures remain (eg no ordering at bars, limiting occupancy)
etc etc etc until back to close to normal - obviously needs to be thought through properly and prioritised right. Events which put vulnerable at risk need to be the last to be opened up - we want immunity as high as possible in the rest of the population.
Alongside this, you'd need a big testing programme so spikes can be averted, though as immunity levels rise, the likelihood of sudden big outbreaks falls.
I fear that mass stadium events are towards the very bottom of the list, given just how fast the spread could be at a full Etihad.
This herd immunity strategy will not eliminate the virus, just as smallpox was not eliminated before vaccines became available. Infection can be expected to grumble along with sporadic outbreaks. So, some restrictions will likely stay in place for a very long time, or even forever, given just how lethal it is to older and vulnerable groups, and how contagious it is. Eg ongoing very regular testing of care home staff, residents and visitors (IIRC half of our deaths have been from care homes).
Meanwhile, hopefully treatments will improve and bring more options for control eg prophylactic monoclonal antibodies for very vulnerable.
I think the govt should be undertaking this sort of thinking, and doing it publicly, to help build understanding of what is possible and what the consequences of different choices in these circumstances are. It would also help build support for the current approach, by educating as to the implications of other approaches.
As I write this, I realise just how difficult it will be. So fingers crossed for that vaccine.
Whaddaya think? Is there a better way?
