COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Christ knows. We’re locking 100 year old people up, who just want to see their families, as they know they’re on their way out, so they can be ‘saved’.
Meanwhile, the Mental Health of Children and Young People in England, 2020 report found one-in-six children aged 5-16 years old, had a probable mental disorder in July 2020, compared to one-in-nine in 2017. Brilliant....
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-inf...young-people-in-england/2020-wave-1-follow-up
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hospital beds are filling up and not enough ICU. Unfortunately that is taking priority over everything else.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
So are you saying there wasn’t the collateral damage you were posting about the other day?
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Absolutely not and a lot of that is stored up and yet to be realised. Not only that but, truth be told, a lot of elderly people who would been on the ’death line’, for want of a better phrase, went earlier in the year via Covid-19, than they might otherwise have done.
The collateral damage meant there was no huge under-performance on ‘normal deaths‘ which you would have expected, given the massive hump in April and May.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
hospital beds are filling up and not enough ICU. Unfortunately that is taking priority over everything else.
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6000 covid patients out of 113000 beds and 571 on ICU out of 4200 ICU beds. That isn’t the catastrophe of March and April when there were over 18000 patients in beds and nearly 3000 in ventilated beds.
 
Looking at the restaraunts, gastro pubs and bistros that closed last night inlcuding places the gasworks, slug n lettuce etc, even ones that could get away with staying open as eateries don't think it is economically viable.

Though kudos to independant places like the Piccadilly tap converting itself into a pizza place to try and survive.
 
I hope the number of cases are dropping but I’ve noticed that temporary testing centres have been removed from some of the student areas that had high prevalence. I hear Whitty reckons we have between 50k and 90k of people acquiring the virus at the moment.

Well done Andy Burnham on helping to secure more support for businesses across the Country. I know all the Southerners on this thread won’t see it that way. They are probably the same people who were whining that we didn’t sell Garcia for 50p.
 
it's interesting trying to toe a steady middle ground, these are the two camps ive got shouting in my ear recently

1: there's a virus but the response is overengineered to ensure drug companies get their massive pay day, to ensure the gov continue to appropriate public money to their own companies. The government massages stats and ensures they find cases to keep people on edge (etc.). (this can stray into cashless societies and government control)

2: a self-interested Tory government would relish a return to a society making money, not sat about, and they would love to crow on about how the UK was the first western nation to get out of it, about how they defeated it etc etc.


The truth is definitely not in either of those camps is it.
 
cleavers said:
I know we are split with how we deal with this, and many think our government is making a complete horlicks of it all, but a look around Europe doesn't offer much advice in doing a better job.

2 weeks ago Italy was around 2500 cases per day, over 16000 today.

Belgium more than 13000 today, as % of population that would be around 80000 cases here.

France not far from 42000 cases today.

Spain as % of population, would by around 30000 here.

Germany in 2 weeks have gone from around 2000 to 12500 today (new record). Unlike here Germany track "active cases" and that is now more than in March at nearly 80000, so that is those who are currently infected.

Poland a new record at over 12000 today.

Switzerland % would be around 40000 here.

Even Cyprus where it's considered to be very low, would have the equivalent of 12000, mutiplied up to our population number. (I've colleagues working there, and new staff going out have to quarantine for 2 weeks before they can go to work, and now we can't get staff back because people are not volunteering to go.)
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We could have locked down earlier and harder and for longer in the Summer and might have saved 30,000 lives in the Summer. But we could have just lost those 30,000 lives in the Winter in a bigger second wave instead. Other countries and other viruses in the past have shown that being hit harder the first time around might actually decrease the severity of second and third waves. Others haven’t. Some viruses show that even with a vaccine, some years, the virus is untameable and tens of thousands still die.

The Conservatives have certainly been haphazard, unplanned, inconsistent and amateur in their responses to the situation. But other countries showed that not locking down at all works, and others that track+trace makes no odds if you have it or not. So people pinning these things on them are simply using it because it’s something to throw at them because they aren’t the party they vote for and they completely miss the point of the whole thing - this is a virus!

No matter what they and anyone else would/could have done, there’d be huge downsides to any actions with this as there’s no real winning situation.

And people would still be moaning even if they’d done everything right. Because there’s no telling if they’d done everything most demanded of them from the start that we wouldn’t still be in the same situation with the same number of deaths and the same economic problems by the time the vaccine (that may work some years and absolutely won’t in others) finally comes around.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Apart from a small blip in August, we haven't seen excess deaths since June.
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ICU capacity in Greater Manchester is at something like 80% and the News this week has been making issues of this, making us think this is really bad, but then Richard Lees added on Monday “this is about the normal figure for this time of year”.
 
Great film on the The Christie on Breakfast Tv. It was followed by an interview with the National Director for Cancer Care. Treatment is back to close to normal levels and 80% of clinical trials are taking place. The take home message is that more people need to come forward for help because there’s is likely to be worse outcomes for people who don’t.
 
cleavers said:
I know we are split with how we deal with this, and many think our government is making a complete horlicks of it all, but a look around Europe doesn't offer much advice in doing a better job.

2 weeks ago Italy was around 2500 cases per day, over 16000 today.

Belgium more than 13000 today, as % of population that would be around 80000 cases here.

France not far from 42000 cases today.

Spain as % of population, would by around 30000 here.

Germany in 2 weeks have gone from around 2000 to 12500 today (new record). Unlike here Germany track "active cases" and that is now more than in March at nearly 80000, so that is those who are currently infected.

Poland a new record at over 12000 today.

Switzerland % would be around 40000 here.

Even Cyprus where it's considered to be very low, would have the equivalent of 12000, mutiplied up to our population number. (I've colleagues working there, and new staff going out have to quarantine for 2 weeks before they can go to work, and now we can't get staff back because people are not volunteering to go.)
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I appreciate what you are saying there, and is shows that no government has a solution. But it also really worrying, that no government seem to have a solution!
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
We could have locked down earlier and harder and for longer in the Summer and might have saved 30,000 lives in the Summer. But we could have just lost those 30,000 lives in the Winter in a bigger second wave instead. Other countries and other viruses in the past have shown that being hit harder the first time around might actually decrease the severity of second and third waves. Others haven’t. Some viruses show that even with a vaccine, some years, the virus is untameable and tens of thousands still die.

The Conservatives have certainly been haphazard, unplanned, inconsistent and amateur in their responses to the situation. But other countries showed that not locking down at all works, and others that track+trace makes no odds if you have it or not. So people pinning these things on them are simply using it because it’s something to throw at them because they aren’t the party they vote for and they completely miss the point of the whole thing - this is a virus!

No matter what they and anyone else would/could have done, there’d be huge downsides to any actions with this as there’s no real winning situation.

And people would still be moaning even if they’d done everything right. Because there’s no telling if they’d done everything most demanded of them from the start that we wouldn’t still be in the same situation with the same number of deaths and the same economic problems by the time the vaccine (that may work some years and absolutely won’t in others) finally comes around.
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Good post PC. You only have to look around the world at the response by other countries. NZ aside most haven't contained the virus.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Trouble is mate people seem to think ‘science‘ is some sort of universal truth and ‘the science’ is the most truthful, which it isn’t. I readily accept that this is a terrible disease for a small minority of people who become infected with it and is particularly bad for the elderly and those with multiple things already wrong with them. However this is true not only of Covid but of most illnesses in life. All we have to rely on is the data and, most of the data I look at and post is just trying to bring a little balance into some of the hysteria that seems to have overcome some people.

The WHO use a measure for disease called Years of life lost, which is because numbers of deaths are not the overriding issue but how many years will be lost. By the time this is finished, the non=Covid pile of years of life lost will look like Everest next to the molehill of the Covid years lost pile.
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That’s why the Cancer Director on the TV this morning was so keen for people with concerns about their health to come forward. There’s not much any health service can do if people stay away. Likewise, it can be important for neighbours, family and friends to support each other whether that be over the phone, Skype etc.

My comment in the earlier post was a bit tongue in cheek. It’s good that there are differences of opinions. That said, we can’t really expect to operate close to how we used to until the virus is under control. The opening of the Nightingale shows the increased problems the virus is creating and we know high case numbers knock on to significant numbers of seriously ill people as well as a damaged economy.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
ICU capacity in Greater Manchester is at something like 80% and the News this week has been making issues of this, making us think this is really bad, but then Richard Lees added on Monday “this is about the normal figure for this time of year”.
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80% is indeed the normal figure. That said it may have escaped your attention that we now have umpteen times the number of ICU beds that we had last year. There is now a half way house to ICU (still in ICU) where patients are given oxygen and monitored 24x7.
 
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