COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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twosips said:
Spot on. There have been thousands of mutations already. This is likely nothing new or noteworthy at all, and yet another unnecessary headline. I honestly think it's a scare tactic.
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and there's no indication of the danger if the strain. If it spreads fast but is less lethal, it is a very different matter.
 
A suggestion not to assume the "new mutation" piece is of particular significance. As others have pointed out, many mutations of the virus are already out there. I'll be awaiting some more meaningful info.

Someone upthread asked if the different vaccines might respond differently?

My understanding: All three have the same fundamental mode of action - they take the piece if generic material (RNA) which codes for the virus spike protein and release it inside our cells, which then make the protein, triggering an immune response. They differ by the means of transporting the RNA into the cells. The sequence coding for the spike protein could be taken from any mutation of the virus, but all were developed early in the pandemic; I would guess (but don't know) they all have identical sequences so are all equally (un)likely to be affected by mutations.

I think it's also right to say that mutations to date have no or minimal effect on spike protein.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
and there's no indication of the danger if the strain. If it spreads fast but is less lethal, it is a very different matter.
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I guess if it spreads faster but is a lot less lethal, that's actually potentially a good thing (more immune, less dead).

OTOH if it spreads faster and is of similar but less lethality, that's bad.

I'd be sceptical of a huge difference in virus fundamentals - we've seen radically different growth rates in different parts of the country before without any known difference in the prevalent mutations at the time.

All things are possible, but we don't know right now. It's certainly a useful shield for Hancock in defending moving places to tier 3 (which I support, don't get me wrong, )
 
I am hoping that the cold weather in January and February may mean more people stay indoors instead of mixing.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
A suggestion not to assume the "new mutation" piece is of particular significance. As others have pointed out, many mutations of the virus are already out there. I'll be awaiting some more meaningful info.

Someone upthread asked if the different vaccines might respond differently?

My understanding: All three have the same fundamental mode of action - they take the piece if generic material (RNA) which codes for the virus spike protein and release it inside our cells, which then make the protein, triggering an immune response. They differ by the means of transporting the RNA into the cells. The sequence coding for the spike protein could be taken from any mutation of the virus, but all were developed early in the pandemic; I would guess (but don't know) they all have identical sequences so are all equally (un)likely to be affected by mutations.

I think it's also right to say that mutations to date have no or minimal effect on spike protein.
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That’s absolutely my understanding also, for what little it’s worth.
 
NeilYoungIsBack said:
I am not sure I understand your data. According to PHW the last time Wales had as few as 2-3 deaths per day was early October. The average since mid October has been around 25/day, with it reaching the low 30s on a couple of occasions.
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Sunday data is always low. Because deaths are not registered that day. I say it in my reports most weeks. Same is true in every other nation. England has around half the cases today (Sunday data) as it likely will have the next two days.

Obviously people die on Sunday at no different rate than other days and they all get allocated to the actual date of death eventually. But it can take a week or so for those to be registered and then allocated to the correct date.

The daily figures reported by every nation that add up to the number you see each day on the news or in the next day's paper are a total of deaths from many days sometimes up to 6 months ago added together. Only a small number of them actually died ON the previous day to the number being posted.

Both numbers are available but for obvious reasons the one that gets reported is what is literally the number of new deaths REPORTED today or tomorrow. But that number will not in any way be the actual number who died the day before. And it may be week or months before we actually know that number and certainly a week or so before we have a close approximation of what it will be.
 
andyhinch said:
It’s all just a juggling act I’m definitely on the lucky side, retired and with my daughter out of education.
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That's the whole point though isn't it. I'm in a "safe" job and my lad is also grown up but if someone has both a job to worry about and kids being sent home and really struggling (as some undoubtedly are), then life must be pretty bloody stressful at the moment.
 
SWP's back said:
The vaccines work on the spike protein which so far hasn’t changed in any mutation/new strain so that’s probably why he’s (rightly) saying that.

Though that’s probably bad news for some of the depressive twats on here that love a good bad news story.
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Not quite true. the 1st major mutation that happened back in feb ( the S/L strains ) changed the spike receptor and made it more "stikcy" allowing faster spread.

However i'll wait for some scientific evidence before jumping into anything about it.

does make me wonder if this is the Denmark Mink strain though
 
Manc in London said:
I severely doubt it. If it did happen, then it would only identify the genuinely stupid.

Once again, please list the benefits Londoners have had that others in all other regions have not. Of course, if you are going to refer to data, then maybe you should highlight positive cases per 100,000 for the elderly and other info relating to the other criteria that were used to decide the tiers.
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As my quote said, "If London escape going into Tier 3"

At least the Government have done the right thing, it was obvious that this had to happen, if it didn't thats when i could have seen trouble.
 
Healdplace said:
Sunday data is always low. Because deaths are not registered that day. I say it in my reports most weeks. Same is true in every other nation. England has around half the cases today (Sunday data) as it likely will have the next two days.

Obviously people die on Sunday at no different rate than other days and they all get allocated to the actual date of death eventually. But it can take a week or so for those to be registered and then allocated to the correct date.

The daily figures reported by every nation that add up to the number you see each day on the news or in the next day's paper are a total of deaths from many days sometimes up to 6 months ago added together. Only a small number of them actually died ON the previous day to the number being posted.

Both numbers are available but for obvious reasons the one that gets reported is what is literally the number of new deaths REPORTED today or tomorrow. But that number will not in any way be the actual number who died the day before. And it may be week or months before we actually know that number and certainly a week or so before we have a close approximation of what it will be.
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Thanks for taking time to respond. I get that Sunday data is a bit hit and miss in terms of coverage, and is especially susceptible to subsequent updating.

The link below provides a good source of daily data. I find the slide-y scale thing useful for focusing on particular time periods.

Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public - Public Health Wales Health Protection | Tableau Public
 
Tim of the Oak said:
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From the scientist he's basing that on:



Also note earlier tweet highlighting that mutations in that area have been observed many times before.

I don't think Hancock announcing this in parliament has helped anything, unless there's something more to come.
 
grunge said:
Not quite true. the 1st major mutation that happened back in feb ( the S/L strains ) changed the spike receptor and made it more "stikcy" allowing faster spread.

However i'll wait for some scientific evidence before jumping into anything about it.

does make me wonder if this is the Denmark Mink strain though
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whilst “stickier”, it didn’t change it in any way that would render a vaccine ineffective. But it’s good the scientists are checking it to be sure.
 
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