Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ayrshire_blue said:
Saw Devi Sridhar's opinion earlier this morning that this will be more like Measles than flu. If vaccines are successful it will be largely eliminated but for flare ups in rich countries with a continued struggle for the poor. She's followed that opinion up by suggesting if the vaccine trials on kids are successful then that's where we're headed.
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This is a reason why I am still not happy with the continued distrust of the AZ vaccine. Or indeed the Russian Sputnik. For entirely different reasons. Regardless of the different basis for such distrust.

I see South Africa now being reportedly spooked into getting shut of their AZ supplies as not being good enough to fight their variant. This is bound to hit confidence everywhere.

I am happy with the data and reviews I have seen and had no qualms taking that vaccine but the bigger issues here are the economic war that is coming. Many companies are investing their futures in selling large stocks of their 'virus killer' and the temptation to do down rivals when any credible hitch appears will grow.

Oxford and Sputnik are very cheap compared with the others and the probability of the third world going for them at the expense of potentially slightly more efficacious but far les affordable commercially created vaccines is going to slow down the ability of the third world to get this under control if there is a do down the cheap stuff and persuade to pay more for the better ones perception created.

Not only will this mean millions more will die needlessly but it means the risk of more mutations happening is ever present and normality will never return to the world unless the world has this under control.

If you want to eradicate and seal yourself off from everywhere else then it might be a good policy. But nobody can or will so it is not at all sensible.

We need to expedite the eradication (as far as that is possible) globally not just nationally and we need to do that as a global unit and agree terms and protocols pronto on how.

We should be doing that now rather than waiting for this vaccine national interest to create problems as it will if we let it.

A global leader ready and willing to see the bigger picture here needs to step up.

Who will it be?
 
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Healdplace said:
This is a reason why I am still not happy with the continued distrust of the AZ vaccine. Or indeed the Russian Sputnik. For entirely different reasons. Regardless of the different basis for such distrust.

I see South Africa now being reportedly spooked into getting shut of their AZ supplies as not being good enough to fight their variant. This is bound to hit confidence everywhere.

I am happy with the data and reviews I have seen and had no qualms taking that vaccine but the bigger issues here are the economic war that is coming. Many companies are investing their futures in selling large stocks of their 'virus killer' and the temptation to do down rivals when any credible hitch appears will grow.

Oxford and Sputnik are very cheap compared with the others and the probability of the third world going for them at the expense of potentially slightly more efficacious but far les affordable commercially created vaccines is going to slow down the ability of the third world to get this under control if there is a do down the cheap stuff and persuade to pay more for the better ones perception created.

Not only will this mean millions more will die needlessly but it means the risk of more mutations happening is ever present and normality will never return to the world unless the world has this under control.

If you want to eradicate and seal yourself off from everywhere else then it might be a good policy. But nobody can or will so it is not at all sensible.

We need to expedite the eradication (as far as that is possible) globally not just nationally and we need to do that as a global unit and agree terms and protocols pronto on how.

We should be doing that now rather than waiting for this vaccine national interest to create problems as it will if we let it.

A global leader ready and willing to see the bigger picture here needs to step up.

Who will it be?
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Absolutely agree. Hopefully the WHO recommendations on all countries using the AZ on all age groups may improve the confidence going forward. The headlines on it not preventing mild illness should NOT be taking precedence over headlines that it prevents severe disease and death (as I'm led to believe this to be the case?) as well as having a positive effect in reducing transmission. This is it's intended purpose, is it not? If this was the only vaccine available in the entire world, it would be celebrated globally. Countries and their media seemingly being picky given everything that's being experienced is beyond belief.
 
Healdplace said:
This is a reason why I am still not happy with the continued distrust of the AZ vaccine. Or indeed the Russian Sputnik. For entirely different reasons. Regardless of the different basis for such distrust.

I see South Africa now being reportedly spooked into getting shut of their AZ supplies as not being good enough to fight their variant. This is bound to hit confidence everywhere.

I am happy with the data and reviews I have seen and had no qualms taking that vaccine but the bigger issues here are the economic war that is coming. Many companies are investing their futures in selling large stocks of their 'virus killer' and the temptation to do down rivals when any credible hitch appears will grow.

Oxford and Sputnik are very cheap compared with the others and the probability of the third world going for them at the expense of potentially slightly more efficacious but far les affordable commercially created vaccines is going to slow down the ability of the third world to get this under control if there is a do down the cheap stuff and persuade to pay more for the better ones perception created.

Not only will this mean millions more will die needlessly but it means the risk of more mutations happening is ever present and normality will never return to the world unless the world has this under control.

If you want to eradicate and seal yourself off from everywhere else then it might be a good policy. But nobody can or will so it is not at all sensible.

We need to expedite the eradication (as far as that is possible) globally not just nationally and we need to do that as a global unit and agree terms and protocols pronto on how.

We should be doing that now rather than waiting for this vaccine national interest to create problems as it will if we let it.

A global leader ready and willing to see the bigger picture here needs to step up.

Who will it be?
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I do really think there has been a PR war against the AZ vaccine

I don't know if it's because it's non for profit so certain Pharma and Healthcare providers want against it, or because it's so tied to the UK that other countries have come out against it.

Then certain media outlets in the UK putting it down to reduce faith in the Gov.

But it's pretty shocking.

That SA study that's slated the AZ vaccine, when compared to the one that hailed the Pfizer vaccine is basically a smear.

Edit: For developing and producing it at cost they should be getting the nobel prize
 
Scotland data:

45 deaths - was 48 last week

908 cases - was 895 last week.

4.9% positive - was 5.9% last week

1449 patients (down 23) - was 1729 last week

110 ventilated (down 5) - was 117 last week

33 long term ventilated - up 3
 
Scotland vaccination update:

1, 173, 445 first doses given - 59, 820 yesterday - was 64, 878 day before

14, 009 second doses given - 443 given yesterday - was 371 day before
 
England hospital deaths

By region

96 Midlands, 79 South East, 69 London, 61 East. 56 North West. 55 NE & Yorkshire, 20 South West


By age group:

20 - 39 (2) 0.4%

40 - 59 (28) 6.4%

60 - 79 (193) 44.3%

80 PLUS (213) 48.9%

The under 60s lowest in a while but the gap between the two older age groups closest I can ever recall.

And yet again (5th time this last week or so after hardly ever before) the over 80s sub 50%

This is very clear now that the over 80s are not dying in the same proportion as they used to do.

I do think vaccination of that age group starting longest ago is reasonably clear as to one factor why.

We should now see this become more obvious and quite possibly that group to fall below the 60 - 79s as these are only now starting to become immunised in large numbers so their obvious vaccine impact in these figures will still be some weeks away yet.
 
Del_Bosque said:
I do really think there has been a PR war against the AZ vaccine

I don't know if it's because it's non for profit so certain Pharma and Healthcare providers want against it, or because it's so tied to the UK that other countries have come out against it.

Then certain media outlets in the UK putting it down to reduce faith in the Gov.

But it's pretty shocking.

That SA study that's slated the AZ vaccine, when compared to the one that hailed the Pfizer vaccine is basically a smear.

Edit: For developing and producing it at cost they should be getting the nobel prize
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The testing was poor ( no over 55s), the marketing was poor implying it had a higher efficacy than the initial 62%,described as an 'intriguing' possibility ( not a scientific term). The 'apparently'poor effectiveness against the SA vaccine was not really it's fault but didn't help it's cause.
Despite all this it could be the vaccine most beneficial to the world.
We'll see.
 
Len Rum said:
The testing was poor ( no over 55s), the marketing was poor implying it had a higher efficacy than the initial 62%,described as an 'intriguing' possibility ( not a scientific term). The 'apparently'poor effectiveness against the SA vaccine was not really it's fault but didn't help it's cause.
Despite all this it could be the vaccine most beneficial to the world.
We'll see.
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Disagree on testing being poor.

Oxford Uni initially ran the tests on under 65's as they were unsure on the safety at the start, Pfizer and Moderna went with older groups straight off the bat. It was an ethical decision, AZ said they would have run it on older to start with but Oxford were in charge.

Once proved safe they added older groups and worked out their antibody response compared to those in the younger cohorts and it was similar.

The initial findings were to get emergency approval, there are on going clinical trials in the US which will provide more data on the over 65's.

They could have waited for the US results to come in, but why wait unless you want a stagnant roll out like the EU?

On it being intriguing I'd say it was not far off the correct term, as when they got more data it turns out it wasn't the 0.5 then full dose regimen that improved efficacy, it was the spacing between doses.

And with the South African variant the Pfizer and J&J vaccines have been hailed for their T Cell response and protection against "severe disease", where as the AZ vaccines been put down for not protecting against mild and moderate disease when it highly likely still does the things Pfizer and J&J are being lauded for.
 
Healdplace said:
England hospital deaths

By region

96 Midlands, 79 South East, 69 London, 61 East. 56 North West. 55 NE & Yorkshire, 20 South West


By age group:

20 - 39 (2) 0.4%

40 - 59 (28) 6.4%

60 - 79 (193) 44.3%

80 PLUS (213) 48.9%

The under 60s lowest in a while but the gap between the two older age groups closest I can ever recall.

And yet again (5th time this last week or so after hardly ever before) the over 80s sub 50%

This is very clear now that the over 80s are not dying in the same proportion as they used to do.

I do think vaccination of that age group starting longest ago is reasonably clear as to one factor why.

We should now see this become more obvious and quite possibly that group to fall below the 60 - 79s as these are only now starting to become immunised in large numbers so their obvious vaccine impact in these figures will still be some weeks away yet.
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very well described that mate, i think 'just my opinion' get the 60+ bracket and any others below who are at risk double vaccinated and its good to ease out of lockdown, the media putting pressure on the government is not helping with this the same media who were putting pressure on them to lock down,things are looking good,thanks for the post
 
NeilYoungIsBack said:
UK vaccinations: 544,603 1st doses delivered yesterday, compared to 494,163 on the same day last week

Cumulative 1st doses: just over 14.556 million
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Brilliant!!!

The 15 million target by the 15th will have been achieved when today's figures are announced tomorrow. Incredible effort by everyone involved.
 
Quick summary before match - more later.

North West unfortunately back to the most cases - rising by 198 to 1960.

Other regions:

Yorkshire up 42 to 1263

North East down 75 to 673

East Midlands down 248 to 1411

West Midlands down 81 to 1585.

East down 580 to 1091

London down 312 to 1495

South East down 284 to 1491

South West down 50 to 830



So North West the highest of all and struggling to get much lower but not disastrous as it would always be one of the highest relative to population. Just not falling as much as it was.

Greater Manchester in all of this rose by 71 to 807. 71 of the 198 NW increase was low enough to reduce the GM % of the total a little again to 41.2%. Still slightly over par.

In GM Bolton had a poor day - up over 100 again along with Manchester.

Everywhere else up slightly on yesterday but sub 100 and most down week to week again.

Trafford chomped another big chunk off the overall Pop Score deficit and looks certain to overtake Stockport in the next couple of days and officially hold all the leading numbers in GM.

Unless VAR intervenes - as in some rather unlikely Very Alarming Ratings (in Trafford.

But the week to week drops mean the trend is down and that is really the only thing that matters.
 
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Del_Bosque said:
Disagree on testing being poor.

Oxford Uni initially ran the tests on under 65's as they were unsure on the safety at the start, Pfizer and Moderna went with older groups straight off the bat. It was an ethical decision, AZ said they would have run it on older to start with but Oxford were in charge.

Once proved safe they added older groups and worked out their antibody response compared to those in the younger cohorts and it was similar.

The initial findings were to get emergency approval, there are on going clinical trials in the US which will provide more data on the over 65's.

They could have waited for the US results to come in, but why wait unless you want a stagnant roll out like the EU?

On it being intriguing I'd say it was not far off the correct term, as when they got more data it turns out it wasn't the 0.5 then full dose regimen that improved efficacy, it was the spacing between doses.

And with the South African variant the Pfizer and J&J vaccines have been hailed for their T Cell response and protection against "severe disease", where as the AZ vaccines been put down for not protecting against mild and moderate disease when it highly likely still does the things Pfizer and J&J are being lauded for.
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Thanks for that important detail.
I agree with you.
I was just giving 'reasons' rather than 'justifications' for the bad ( but unjustified) PR that the AZ vaccine has received.
 
blue for life said:
1st jab today. Very quick and smooth process
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Quite a few on here saying they were vaccinated today or yesterday.

I wonder if there will be a big jump in data tomorrow or just that it illustrates the Bluemoon demographic :)
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
Brilliant!!!

The 15 million target by the 15th will have been achieved when today's figures are announced tomorrow. Incredible effort by everyone involved.
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It's understandable but I think there's possibly some confusion about the target.

The Delivery Plan aimed to offer the vaccine to approx. 15million people in Priority Groups 1-4. I read somewhere that the take up rate among the over 75s in England has been 93%, so this suggests that a lot of these offers have actually been taken up.

But the 14.556 million vaccinated so far probably includes an increasing number of those outside Priority groups 1-4, firstly to ensure that vaccine wasn't wasted and second as the 65-69s (group 5) are now starting to be offered vaccinations as well.

Notwithstanding the last point, it's obviously an outstanding effort and it hopefully means that an easing of restrictive measures will be announced soon.
 
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