Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

The first 5 groups account for 94-99% of deaths

But only 40% ish of ICU admissions.

 

[Indaparkside]

But only 40% ish of ICU admissions.

And that is the point the government are not arsed about the deaths it’s about the nhs getting over run

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

Can someone explain please if a new variant of the virus comes along what happens to all the people who have already been vaccinated surely they will still be compromised as the jab they have had will not be effective against the new strain is this correct.

The vaccine they had will probably give them some immunity, but it is possible that the virus could mutate in such a way as to make the vaccine efficacy too low, say below 50%. That's what the scientists are keeping an eye on.

 

[domalino]

But only 40% ish of ICU admissions.

Yes, but they take up a much bigger proportion of ICU bed time.

A study of French hospitals found that the average person who died of covid 19 spent 43.7 days in ICU, while the average of someone who went to ICU and survived was 27.5 days.

So for 100 patients in ICU, the 40 who make up the 99% of deaths takes up 1748 bed days, and the 60% make up 1650

Take away the 40% and your ICU capacity to treat people more than doubles.

 

[blueparrot]

I don't know who is driving the misconception, government, media, or those businesses with vested interests?

Probably all three!

As you say, our entire mindset needs to change.

It happened after 9/11 when everyone had to accept the way we jumped on and off airplanes through customs was changed forever.

Nobody likes waiting in queues but it was the new reality.

The new reality, here and now, is things might never be the same again, and far too many people might not be willing to accept that.

Think a lot of the misconception is just some peoples thinking.We met a couple in their eighties while out walking yesterday and asked if they’d been vaccinated ,they hadn’t but their first question was what can they do when they’ve had it. They were shocked when my answer was nothing, except feel safer.That they had to carry on as if they hadn’t been vaccinated for now, came as a surprise.

 

[Del_Bosque]

I'd imagine most of the country will be in Tier 1/2 about 3 weeks after all over 60's been offered a vaccination, so end of April?

There's really not any justification for keeping people locked up over summer if 90% of hospitalizations and 99% of deaths have been prevented.

I think we'll be out of the tier system completely by June, the G7 has been arranged for Cornwall mid June so the Gov must be planning on things being much more normal by then

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Yes, but they take up a much bigger proportion of ICU bed time.

A study of French hospitals found that the average person who died of covid 19 spent 43.7 days in ICU, while the average of someone who went to ICU and survived was 27.5 days.

So for 100 patients in ICU, the 40 who make up the 99% of deaths takes up 1748 bed days, and the 60% make up 1650

Take away the 40% and your ICU capacity to treat people more than doubles.

So, is half the current rate of ICU occupancy OK?

Is it going back up to current levels as the disease surges through younger age groups OK?

Obviously, I think a resounding "no" on both counts. Personally, I don't fancy it, and society-wide it sounds terrible.

 

[domalino]

So, is half the current rate of ICU occupancy OK?

Is it going back up to current levels as the disease surges through younger age groups OK?

Obviously, I think a resounding "no" on both counts. Personally, I don't fancy it, and society-wide it sounds terrible.

You might not fancy it, but you're living in a complete dream land if you think we're going to be in lockdown with deaths <20 a day. We came out of lockdown 1 at 350 deaths/day.

 

[shemnel]

But only 40% ish of ICU admissions.

Yes, but they take up a much bigger proportion of ICU bed time.

A study of French hospitals found that the average person who died of covid 19 spent 43.7 days in ICU, while the average of someone who went to ICU and survived was 27.5 days.

So for 100 patients in ICU, the 40 who make up the 99% of deaths takes up 1748 bed days, and the 60% make up 1650

Take away the 40% and your ICU capacity to treat people more than doubles.

yes there is a point in this - whilst over/under 60 roughly marks the 50/50 line for ICU admissions, the folks who die in ICU in the UK are in there for about 5 days longer, on average. In the spring wave we actually found that survivors were in for longer, but i'm guessing treatment has driven this to be the opposite in this wave.

remove those most susceptible to death from covid and the burden on ICU decreases AND the mean stay in ICU decreases. No, it's not a great idea to whack up the caseload again but by March you have to consider 12m+ will have some level of vaccination and 20m (?) may have had it. The R number will be looking to decrease then as well. Sadly political pressure will drive things more.

further, as IFR and ICU admission rate is much lower amongst younger people, it would take much larger case loads to re-enact the current ICU admissions, if the over 70s were all vaccinated.

 

[BlueHammer85]

my bro in law (nhs worker) who has already had covid last year, has had the first jab, has again tested positive.