Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ayrshire_blue said:
*I realise people protected through immunity from prior infection will also assist. To what extent, I don't know.
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We could probably do some very crude statistical work to look into it.

In January 2021, in England, according to the government, there were c32,000, of which 253, or 0.7% were below the age of 50. There were a reported 1m cases that month too, indicating a 3.2% overall mortality rate - pretty similar to scotland per that tweet.

This is before vaccinations

Over 20m people in England over the age of 50 have had at least 1 dose of a vaccine.

Assume the mortality rate according to the CDC calculated a few posts above of around 0.0002% in the vaccinated, which i'm going to assume is similar to those previously infected naturally, is accurate.

I'm not smart enough to come up with a model to measure an outcome, but even just looking at those figures tells me that there's probably not a great deal to worry about and we just need to continue delivering the vaccinations, and if Prof Christina Pagel is as worried every single day as her tweets suggest, she's probably more likely to end up in hospital herself through stress than what she's worrying about coming true.
 
feelymcfeel said:
We could probably do some very crude statistical work to look into it.

In January 2021, in England, according to the government, there were c32,000, of which 253, or 0.7% were below the age of 50. There were a reported 1m cases that month too, indicating a 3.2% overall mortality rate - pretty similar to scotland per that tweet.

This is before vaccinations

Over 20m people in England over the age of 50 have had at least 1 dose of a vaccine.

Assume the mortality rate according to the CDC calculated a few posts above of around 0.0002% in the vaccinated, which i'm going to assume is similar to those previously infected naturally, is accurate.

I'm not smart enough to come up with a model to measure an outcome, but even just looking at those figures tells me that there's probably not a great deal to worry about and we just need to continue delivering the vaccinations, and if Prof Christina Pagel is as worried every single day as her tweets suggest, she's probably more likely to end up in hospital herself through stress than what she's worrying about coming true.
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You have to factor in though that even with the scenario that many people have and will require hospital treatment but utlitmately won't die, its still hospital beds being taken up and so other illnesses and appointments are still at risk of going untreated/undiagnosed if hospitals fill up too quickly at the one time.

It's so important that the vaccine programme keeps accelerating and those first doses are just as important as the second, but for different reasons.
 
Sorry I am struggling to keep up. My pubisher seem to think posting in here is less important than me updting a book about serial killers.

So I am having to juggle stats and deaths on Covid with mass murderers in my head day after day.

Great fun. Not.

Still at least I am getting paid for doing this update on one of my very old books (if 20 years is very old!)

Will take a break to catch up on data.

THose Scotland cases are certainly going up.

98 in hospital btw - up 1 on yesterday and 6 on ventilators - same as yesterday.
 
Northern Ireland Data

STILL GOING WELL HERE

0 deaths - was 0 last week

66 cases - was 107 last week

2.9% positivity - wa 4% last week

540 rolling seven day cases - was 583 yesterday & 614 last week

4 care home outbreaks - sa me as yesterday & last week

28 patients - down 1 on yesterday - was 38 last week

1 ventilted - same as yesterday - wa 3 last week
 
9 all settings deaths

3180 cases

First time over 3000 in a while

was 2696 last week and 2284 week before

England cases 2540 - up 459 on yesterday and 389 on last week

Testing only 727, 489 too - about 7 K up on last Wednesday
 
ayrshire_blue said:
You have to factor in though that even with the scenario that many people have and will require hospital treatment but utlitmately won't die, its still hospital beds being taken up and so other illnesses and appointments are still at risk of going untreated/undiagnosed if hospitals fill up too quickly at the one time.

It's so important that the vaccine programme keeps accelerating and those first doses are just as important as the second, but for different reasons.
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According to the CDC amongst the 101m vaccinated, there have so far been less than 1,000 that have needed to be hospitalised as a result of reinfection. Tha'st still remarkably low.

roubaixtuesday said:
Yet you're quite happy to dismiss those, like Pagel, who are...
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That particular tweet and subsequent thread didn't contain any modelling, just a report of statistics and an opinion. Show me the model and results that led to this worry and i'll happily look through it. The raw data that is available relating age, vaccination status, infection rates, hospitalisation rates, and mortality rates, to me simply isn't worrying.

Cases don't appear to be turning into hospitalisations in rates even close to those earlier in the pandemic, and those now, according to the data, more likely to be infected are of age groups where serious illness is far, far less likely than those older.

What have I said there that you disagree with, or you deem to be wrong?
 
feelymcfeel said:
According to the CDC amongst the 101m vaccinated, there have so far been less than 1,000 that have needed to be hospitalised as a result of reinfection. Tha'st still remarkably low.
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But add it to the thousands more in the younger age groups who are about to become infected is my point. Most of them won't need paracetamol never mind hospital treatment but even the small % who do could still go on to equate to a big enough raw number. Then add the small % of breakthrough or reinfections in the elderly groups, and you've got the sound of drums banging about hospital beds still being filled up at a pretty quick rate.
 
England hospital deaths 6 - with 2 in NW - one in Tameside and 1 in Bolton - the two top GM areas according to Zoe.

Last week 6 with 1, week before 11 with 2 and week before 25 with 1

FIVE of the six though happened on 24 May (the other was two weeks ago)

24 May is on 6 after 2 day - highest since 11 May.
 
Even Wales btw - doing so well have DOUBLED their ventilated patients today from 2 to 4. It was just 1 a couple of days ago.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
But add it to the thousands more in the younger age groups who are about to become infected is my point. Most of them won't need paracetamol never mind hospital treatment but even the small % who do could still go on to equate to a big enough raw number. Then add the small % of breakthrough or reinfections in the elderly groups, and you've got the sound of drums banging about hospital beds still being filled up at a pretty quick rate.
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You do, but not nearly at the rate or with the absolute number from back in January, say, or December, purely because more than half the population is vaccinated. That number is only going to increase too, so those numbers you speak of can only go up at ever slower rates.

If I'm wrong please tell me, but it only seems logical to me if the people who are unvaccinated are those who satistically are less likely to be seriously ill, and those who are vaccinated are, by the very nature of vaccinations, also significantly less likely to be seriously ill, there simply cannot be a repeat of the problem from earlier in the year.
 
North West UP almost 300 week to week (when Bolton fell week to week as I just noted above)

At what I think is the highest ever in months - 745 cases - which is way ahead now of everywhere else.

Yorkshire which pre Bolton 2 weeks ago was well ahead of NW at 335 today is over 400 behind now. And they are the only other region even above the 200s.

These cases in the NW and Scotland are rising faster than I hoped
 
ayrshire_blue said:
But add it to the thousands more in the younger age groups who are about to become infected is my point. Most of them won't need paracetamol never mind hospital treatment but even the small % who do could still go on to equate to a big enough raw number. Then add the small % of breakthrough or reinfections in the elderly groups, and you've got the sound of drums banging about hospital beds still being filled up at a pretty quick rate.
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There is much less that 1 person per hospital with covid spread across the Uk at the moment. Puts it into perspective.
 
feelymcfeel said:
What have I said there that you disagree with, or you deem to be wrong?
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I don't disagree with any of that.

It's far too soon to know if it will hold true into the medium term.

The scenario to be concerned about is:

(1) Large outbreak in unvaccinated youth
(2) Exposes large number of vaccinated old, a small proportion of whom are still susceptible, and
(3) The smaller number of unvaccinated old, all of whom are still susceptible.

There is clearly potential for (1) from what we've seen in Bolton. This could spread nationwide very quickly, with doubling times of little more than a week observed.

We don't yet know how significant (2) and (3) will be.

I don't understand how disparaging experts like Pagel helps anything.
 
Cases going up, Hospital numbers going up. I think we are safe to assume this is what happens when selfish people come back from amber countries with new variants and don't follow the rules combined with the government not acting soon enough and putting countries on a red list. Where is the evidence of numbers and variants coming from India, What advice was given and when. If found to have acted incompetently people need to be sacked immediately. Its just not good enough any more. Lockdown these areas hard, shut everything non essential for three weeks, bring the army and police patrol the streets and knock on doors make sure people are self isolating. No vaccination no problem but you pay for your own hospital care if you catch covid. I am sure peoples mind set will soon change when they realise its them that are accountable for their own actions and not the rest of us. Depressing stuff all round.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I don't disagree with any of that.

It's far too soon to know if it will hold true into the medium term.

The scenario to be concerned about is:

(1) Large outbreak in unvaccinated youth
(2) Exposes large number of vaccinated old, a small proportion of whom are still susceptible, and
(3) The smaller number of unvaccinated old, all of whom are still susceptible.

There is clearly potential for (1) from what we've seen in Bolton. This could spread nationwide very quickly, with doubling times of little more than a week observed.

We don't yet know how significant (2) and (3) will be.

I don't understand how disparaging experts like Pagel helps anything.
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Bolton cases have dropped over 20% last Weds, not doubled. We have seen nothing at all in Boltom that we should be worried about.
 
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