Coronavirus (2021) thread

[unicorn]

I’ve been going back to the rugby league and once you are in the stand or seated you can take off your mask and get behind the team. You can obviously take off your mask to have a pre or half time drink on designated concourses. It’s quite relaxed

Interesting, and good to hear. At the Sheffield Crucible it was "masks on except when drinking", so Mrs RM made her large glass last 90 minutes !

You see a real mix of distancing and mask wearing on the TV games, don't you ?

 

[M18CTID]

Well, it's certainly clearly happening regardless of what any of us think. Buckle in. This will be interesting. Bit nerve-wracking tbh. Part of me thinks we'll see a huge rise that will mercifully quickly fizzle out given we'll reach that HIT quickly, another part thinks it could end up being surprisingly bad. Heh. Fingers crossed.

Purely guesswork on my part but I think it will be the former - a further spike in cases, but it will settle down soon enough thanks mainly to the ever increasing numbers who have had the jab.

 

[BlueAnorak]

.


You sure about that? What's your basis? A quick google reveals

View attachment 20669

Where do you think Delta will peak? Very likely to be worse than any of these flu seasons by hospital admission (right hand scale) , I think, and a fair chance of being twice as bad.

Already worse peak than 2016/17. Not sure what you define as a "normal" flu season.

[this assumes I've interpreted that correctly, I may well not have. From here https://assets.publishing.service.g...tory_viruses_in_the_UK_2019_to_2020_FINAL.pdf ]

You love just looking at admissions and are ignoring discharges.

Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

www.england.nhs.uk

In the "All Beds Covid" tab, hospital bed occupancy for Covid from 11th June to 1st of July in Englansd is...
146, 152, 171, 170, 187, 192, 197, 210, 203, 196, 212, 229, 227, 240, 238, 236.244, 256

That means discharge rates are nearly as high as admissions. We are going to get nowhere near January's occupancy rate even with a case explosion.

Oh and there's this graph too.

UK: Daily new hospital admissions for COVID-19

Hospital data is available for individual UK nations, and English data by NHS Region. Figures are not comparable between nations as Wales includes suspected COVID-19 patients while the other nations only include confirmed cases.

ourworldindata.org

Hospital oxygen is the only thing we need to guarantee and measures have been taken to secure that over the next few months.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[Del_Bosque]

That's quite the drop tbh and put HI threshold even further away.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

On a small, admittedly not that important personal level, i've got no idea if my wedding will happen now lol. It's scheduled for the third week in August. I'm wondering if things could spiral out of control and they bottle it and lockdown again and i've got to cancel it all over again ha. Fuck knows.

Best wishes with that, must be a nightmare. Hopefully on the downslope by then.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Not really. 3 weeks is the point at which antibodies reach there peak after vaccination and its less than half the max number at two weeks.

 

[True_Blue69]

OK, so you don't agree it's "no worse than a normal flu season".

What does "can cope" mean? I mean, the NHS "coped" in January, but I certainly wouldn't advocate deliberately choosing to go back there.

I think we should be honest about the impacts and risks. Gung-ho rhetoric avoids that.

I didn’t say it was, just jumping in mid topic. If the scientists and medical experts say it’s safe to open upfully, then that’s good enough for me. Just like it was good enough for you when they delayed it by a month. I know you want restrictions to continue as long as possible, but you can’t have it both ways when using the expert opinions to back up your point.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

That's quite the drop tbh and put HI threshold even further away.

Indeed. Though this part was again reassuring:

"Both the Oxford–AstraZeneca and Pfizer–BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines were effective in reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation in people with the Delta VOC, but these effects on infection appeared to be diminished when compared to those with the Alpha VOC."

Also found this sentence interesting:

"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups"

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I know you want restrictions to continue as long as possible

Give it a rest with the complete bollocks. I think lifting further restrictions whilst cases continue to double every 10 days is unwise. If cases weren't doing that, I'd be all for it. I do think that if we lift restrictions, we should be honest about the risks. I don't see that happening.

you can’t have it both ways when using the expert opinions to back up your point.

Expert opinion seems quite diverse at the moment, reflecting the great uncertainty in what will happen.

Just for instance

 

[west didsblue]

Purely guesswork on my part but I think it will be the former - a further spike in cases, but it will settle down soon enough thanks mainly to the ever increasing numbers who have had the jab.

I tend to agree.
The main concern is a vaccine beating variant becoming more likely if Delta is more widespread.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

THIS IS TWO DAYS DATA - SAT & SUN - AS USUAL.....BUT.....

2 deaths - was 0 last week

1256 cases - was 670 last week


Like everywhere doubling now in 7 days.

 

[west didsblue]

Wales data:

THIS IS TWO DAYS DATA - SAT & SUN - AS USUAL.....BUT.....

2 deaths - was 0 last week

1256 cases - was 670 last week


Like everywhere doubling now in 7 days.

According to Worldometer it's up 68% in the last week across the UK, but deaths haven't moved. Other countries with similar vaccination stats are broadly the same.

 

[M18CTID]

I tend to agree.
The main concern is a vaccine beating variant becoming more likely if Delta is more widespread.

Totally agree that that is a concern but I don't see much point in worrying about it unless it actually happens of course.

 

[west didsblue]

Totally agree that that is a concern but I don't see much point in worrying about it unless it actually happens of course.

Just my opinion, but if a vaccine beating variant becomes widespread and double jabbed people start catching it in big numbers, I suspect that the vaccine will still reduce the symptoms and make it less deadly. That seems to be what has happened so far with Delta and people with a single jab. Of course I might be talking out of my arse.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Just my opinion, but if a vaccine beating variant becomes widespread and double jabbed people start catching it in big numbers, I suspect that the vaccine will still reduce the symptoms and make it less deadly. That seems to be what has happened so far with Delta and people with a single jab. Of course I might be talking out of my arse.

I don't think you are. I think the consensus seems to be that variants which impact vaccines will do so on a gradual and incremental manner, and very very unlikely to simply be a variant out of nowhere which makes vaccines completely ineffective or as good as in every sense.

It's way out of my expertise but that's my understanding. Infact I've read that a brand new pandemic with something totally different is just as if not more so likely than a complete vaccine escape covid variant at this point.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I don't think you are. I think the consensus seems to be that variants which impact vaccines will do so on a gradual and incremental manner, and very very unlikely to simply be a variant out of nowhere which makes vaccines completely ineffective or as good as in every sense.

It's way out of my expertise but that's my understanding. Infact I've read that a brand new pandemic with something totally different is just as if not more so likely than a complete vaccine escape covid variant at this point.

That does seem to be the concensus of expert opinion and it certainly applies to the Alpha and Delta variants that the vacines were not created to beat.

 

[mrbelfry]

I've had 2 kids off from school this past week. One went back today and the other was meant to go back tomorrow. Had a call from the third kids school - she has a stomach ache, we all have to isolate until she gets a negative test. BUT stomach aches aren't a symptom on the website where you book tests, neither is "book a test because school said so". So tell a little white lie - no tests available unless I do a 100 mile round trip to Wales. Ordered a home test. Might be able to leave the house again Thursday if I'm lucky.


Of course if the test comes back positive then well done school!

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Reading all these posts about schools and all the shite hoops people are having to jump through makes me really, really glad me and mrs marrsbarres don’t have kids.

I’ve got a colleague who’s a single mum with three kids having to deal with all this shit at the moment. I don’t know how you parents cope.

 

[Healdplace]

According to Worldometer it's up 68% in the last week across the UK, but deaths haven't moved. Other countries with similar vaccination stats are broadly the same.

There is a bit of a rise in deaths but not at all as yet a big one. Though recall that deaths lag cases by several weeks and so the impact of this big rise in the rest of the UK is yet to be seen. Up to recently it was only the impact of the NW and Scotland we were seeing,

This is why I post a daily update of the hospital data here every evening, And the UK deaths every afternoon. And as much as we get on age ranges of cases.~

These are the key patterns we need to watch now.

They WILL rise but it is evident from NW and Scotland when the rest of the UK ticks up likely only by 2 or 3 times where we have got with them. 100 deaths and 50,000 cases and 3000 in hospital very possible at some point, But I hope not more than these upper limits.

But nobody really knows the impact of the opening up Boris is to announce at 5 pm today in a press conference on live TV. But it is obviously necessary we do tip toe into the new dawn.