Middle East Conflict

KPXBLN said:
I think it's a bit more complicated than that actually, and there is more possibility for peace than you allow in what you write here. Hamas revised their charter in 2017, indicating an openness to a Palestinian state with the 1967 borders. The exact phrase they used is:

Without compromising its rejection of the Zionist entity and without relinquishing any Palestinian rights, Hamas considers the establishment of a fully sovereign and independent Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as its capital along the lines of the 4th of June 1967, with the return of the refugees and the displaced to their homes from which they were expelled, to be a formula of national consensus.

Obviously, they're trying to have it both ways with that statement, but it indicates more openness to a political solution than Israel wants us to believe is possible. Interesting, albeit very long, podcast on the history of Hamas from a Palestinian scholar here: https://thedigradio.com/podcast/hamas-w-tareq-baconi/

The other thing that's important to remember is that Hamas isn't the Palestinian people. You can't be like "Hamas doesn't want peace" and think that's the end of the matter. There are other political and civil society organisations that Israel could be talking to if it wanted to. The trouble is it deliberately and systematically marginalised them over decades.
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Look you have to view it this way. Israel is not going to fight for a Palestinian state, it just isn't. Right now as far as Israel is concerned it was attacked on 7th October and anything it does is therefore justified. We all know that the level of their response is completely unjustified but I honestly don't know how we can change that?

Russia and Iran are currently the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world and they haven't changed tact at all. We can halt the flow of arms but actually the only country that is important in terms of arms is the US and the US isn't going to fudge its arms industry for a state that it doesn't even recognise. The UK and Europe export an irrelevant number of arms to Israel compared to the US so our influence is actually zero in comparison.

A Palestinian state has to be negotiated and brokered because if it was that simple then why would there need to be a negotiation? Israel will always oppose a Palestinian state which potentially infringes upon its security and Hamas represents exactly that. So until Hamas surrenders then what is going to change?

Regurgitated criticism of Israel doesn't change the fact that Israel is a modern nuclear armed state and it isn't going to lose this war, so why doesn't Hamas surrender? The only curve ball I can see coming soon is if Iran and others become involved and then all bets are off.

I feel the policy of the west right now given what's happening in Ukraine is basically how the hell do we avoid WW3...
 
inbetween said:
Look you have to view it this way. Israel is not going to fight for a Palestinian state, it just isn't. Right now as far as Israel is concerned it was attacked on 7th October and anything it does is therefore justified. We all know that the level of their response is completely unjustified but I honestly don't know how we can change that?

Russia and Iran are currently the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world and they haven't changed tact at all. We can halt the flow of arms but actually the only country that is important in terms of arms is the US and the US isn't going to fudge its arms industry for a state that it doesn't even recognise. The UK and Europe export an irrelevant number of arms to Israel compared to the US so our influence is actually zero in comparison.

A Palestinian state has to be negotiated and brokered because if it was that simple then why would there need to be a negotiation? Israel will always oppose a Palestinian state which potentially infringes upon its security and Hamas represents exactly that. So until Hamas surrenders then what is going to change?

Regurgitated criticism of Israel doesn't change the fact that Israel is a modern nuclear armed state and it isn't going to lose this war, so why doesn't Hamas surrender? The only curve ball I can see coming soon is if Iran and others become involved and then all bets are off.

I feel the policy of the west right now given what's happening in Ukraine is basically how the hell do we avoid WW3...
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I agree that Israel won't fight for a Palestinian state, that much is obvious; if anything it's spent most of the last 75 years fighting against that prospect. My point is that Israel's hostility to Hamas, or Hamas's stance on Israel, aren't the most important limiting factors on longterm peace - it's the refusal of Israel's allies, especially the USA, to apply any pressure at all on Israel to negotiate. (Europe isn't irrelevant though - Germany supplies about a quarter of Israel's arms.) But obviously, the prospect of western countries cutting Israel off is, for now, sadly extremely remote.
 
inbetween said:
Look you have to view it this way. Israel is not going to fight for a Palestinian state, it just isn't. Right now as far as Israel is concerned it was attacked on 7th October and anything it does is therefore justified. We all know that the level of their response is completely unjustified but I honestly don't know how we can change that?

Russia and Iran are currently the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world and they haven't changed tact at all. We can halt the flow of arms but actually the only country that is important in terms of arms is the US and the US isn't going to fudge its arms industry for a state that it doesn't even recognise. The UK and Europe export an irrelevant number of arms to Israel compared to the US so our influence is actually zero in comparison.

A Palestinian state has to be negotiated and brokered because if it was that simple then why would there need to be a negotiation? Israel will always oppose a Palestinian state which potentially infringes upon its security and Hamas represents exactly that. So until Hamas surrenders then what is going to change?

Regurgitated criticism of Israel doesn't change the fact that Israel is a modern nuclear armed state and it isn't going to lose this war, so why doesn't Hamas surrender? The only curve ball I can see coming soon is if Iran and others become involved and then all bets are off.

I feel the policy of the west right now given what's happening in Ukraine is basically how the hell do we avoid WW3...
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I get why Israeli’s don’t want a Palestinian state but I don’t know how their approach improves their security. Whether a Palestinian state exists or not they will still have to deal with the neighbors and the ripples the Palestinian issue causes in the region. It’s one of the chief reasons Hezbollah exists. Being a nuclear state means nothing if your targets are your immediate neighbors on top of the M.A.D that nukes present. End of the day Israel will need to make true peace with its regional states cause I don’t see Iran, Syria, or Lebanon going anywhere and the Palestinian issue leaves Israel’s enemies useful proxies to undermine Israeli peace and security.
 
BayernMan said:
The PLO has recognized Israel’s right to exist and publicly denounced terrorism so much so that they are dubbed as security subcontractors for the IDF. Why didn’t the Israeli government come to a final settlement with the PLO in the West Bank? Just cause Hamas exists in Gaza I don’t see why the Israeli government didn’t just go ahead and discuss a truce with Palestinians under the PLO. One could argue that doing so would further disempower Hamas by showing the world but most importantly Palestinians that Israel and Palestinians can coexist while rogue actors such as Hamas are the obstacle. Instead we see rising violence in the West Bank and a growing pro Hamas sentiment in the West Bank…
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They have always wanted it all. Just the world was fooled and they and their media darlings cover up the new holocaust.
 
ChicagoBlue said:
Keeping it real?
Don't bring that kind of shit to Bluemoon!

Israel is willing to trade Palestinians for Israelis at a rate of 10:1, and the UN just said that Hamas has been shown to have raped (been raping) hostages, and Hamas won’t tell them who and how many are still alive…while Israeli is demanding ALL of them back (shock horror!).

Colour me crazy, but the end seems a fairly straightforward construct, doesn’t it?
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When Israel can take hostages (sorry, detain people) at will, the rate of exchange isn't particularly relevant.
 
There are 15.7 million Jews in the world, 0.2% of the 8 billion world population. In the last century they have been massacred and murdered by the far left in Russia, massacred and murdered by the far right in Europe, massacred and murdered by extreme Islamists in the middle East. If what is being said by Jews then they are not safe in London! I think, not surprisingly, that the Jews decided that if no one in the world wants them then perhaps they need to find some land and look after themselves. Now it seems that many want to hound them out of Israel! Where the fuck can they live without the far left, the far right or the maddest part of Islam objecting?
 
Palerider said:
There are 15.7 million Jews in the world, 0.2% of the 8 billion world population. In the last century they have been massacred and murdered by the far left in Russia, massacred and murdered by the far right in Europe, massacred and murdered by extreme Islamists in the middle East. If what is being said by Jews then they are not safe in London! I think, not surprisingly, that the Jews decided that if no one in the world wants them then perhaps they need to find some land and look after themselves. Now it seems that many want to hound them out of Israel! Where the fuck can they live without the far left, the far right or the maddest part of Islam objecting?
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You forgot the part that when they were in our territory in the early 1900s, they (they as in Irgun) were attacking us front left and centre, because we did not pander to their demand of wanting the Israel state as their homeland.

Winston Churchill called Irgun terrorists. Even pacifist early zionist Albert Einstein called Irgun terrorists. On the other hand, the Israel makeshift government called Irgun their underground organisation.

Don’t forget that they attacked us more than 60 separate events before Israel came to be. And killed hundreds of our soldiers.
 
BayernMan said:
I get why Israeli’s don’t want a Palestinian state but I don’t know how their approach improves their security. Whether a Palestinian state exists or not they will still have to deal with the neighbors and the ripples the Palestinian issue causes in the region. It’s one of the chief reasons Hezbollah exists. Being a nuclear state means nothing if your targets are your immediate neighbors on top of the M.A.D that nukes present. End of the day Israel will need to make true peace with its regional states cause I don’t see Iran, Syria, or Lebanon going anywhere and the Palestinian issue leaves Israel’s enemies useful proxies to undermine Israeli peace and security.
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The Israeli approach to security is damage limitation because in truth it isn't really threatened by threats such as Hamas or Hezbollah but state supporters such as Iran are a massive threat. I mean christ, Iran has tried to acquire nuclear weapons so that it can destroy Israel with them. Support from the west is therefore critical if Israel is going to defend itself and continue to exist.

I see a strange hypocrisy on here all the time where people say that Palestine should be recognised by the west and a two-state solution etc but what about recognition of Israel? Will peace and recognition of Israel be part of that conversation? If there was a two-state solution then would Iran come to make peace and finally recognise Israel? I won't hold my breath.

No supporter of Palestine gives a damn about the Israeli security situation elsewhere, they couldn't give a damn if Israel was destroyed tomorrow by Iran and this is actually where they forfit their right to argue for peace. The fact though is there will never be a peaceful solution where Palestine exists and lives happily whilst Israel continues to be subjected to violence and aggression from elsewhere.
 
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inbetween said:
The Israeli approach to security is damage limitation because in truth it isn't really threatened by threats such as Hamas or Hezbollah but state supporters such as Iran are a massive threat. I mean christ, Iran has tried to acquire nuclear weapons so that it can destroy Israel with them. Support from the west is therefore critical if Israel is going to defend itself and continue to exist.

I see a strange hypocrisy on here all the time where people say that Palestine should be recognised by the west and a two-state solution etc but what about recognition of Israel? Will peace and recognition of Israel be part of that conversation? If there was a two-state solution then would Iran come to make peace and finally recognise Israel? I won't hold my breath.

No supporter of Palestine gives a damn about the Israeli security situation elsewhere, they couldn't give a damn if Israel was destroyed tomorrow by Iran and this is actually where they forfit their right to argue for peace. The fact though is there will never be a peaceful solution where Palestine exists and lives happily whilst Israel continues to be subjected to violence and aggression from elsewhere.
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You missed my point completely. Where has this course of action taken Israel. The way Israel acts isn’t like a regional player who has long term vision for the region but an outside force causing havoc hence chaos agents like Iran take advantage. Like I said before, where do you think Hezbollah came from? I recommend doing research on it.

Israel’s current approach only empowers bad actors like Iran. As I said before, whether Israel displaces or kills every Palestinian in their region Lebanon will still exist, Syria will still exist, same as Jordan, Egypt and Iran etc. And most of these countries are their immediate neighbors. Israel will have to find a political settlement to its bad actors or they will always be creating instability and its Western allies like the US will start asking “is it worth it?”. Not to say the West will become enemies with Israel but I imagine future governments won’t always look at Israel with rose tinted glasses.

If Israel can’t find a peaceful solution then Israel will never be free of its security concerns.
 
inbetween said:
The Israeli approach to security is damage limitation because in truth it isn't really threatened by threats such as Hamas or Hezbollah but state supporters such as Iran are a massive threat. I mean christ, Iran has tried to acquire nuclear weapons so that it can destroy Israel with them. Support from the west is therefore critical if Israel is going to defend itself and continue to exist.

I see a strange hypocrisy on here all the time where people say that Palestine should be recognised by the west and a two-state solution etc but what about recognition of Israel? Will peace and recognition of Israel be part of that conversation? If there was a two-state solution then would Iran come to make peace and finally recognise Israel? I won't hold my breath.

No supporter of Palestine gives a damn about the Israeli security situation elsewhere, they couldn't give a damn if Israel was destroyed tomorrow by Iran and this is actually where they forfit their right to argue for peace. The fact though is there will never be a peaceful solution where Palestine exists and lives happily whilst Israel continues to be subjected to violence and aggression from elsewhere.
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Many people like me (for what it's worth) support a two state solution and care for the security of BOTH Israel and Palestine. Until a political solution of a two state solution happens there will never be a chance of peace and security for both. Palestine must have its own fairly allocated independent land. What there is now is unsustainable.
 
BayernMan said:
You missed my point completely. Where has this course of action taken Israel. The way Israel acts isn’t like a regional player who has long term vision for the region but an outside force causing havoc hence chaos agents like Iran take advantage. Like I said before, where do you think Hezbollah came from? I recommend doing research on it.

Israel’s current approach only empowers bad actors like Iran. As I said before, whether Israel displaces or kills every Palestinian in their region Lebanon will still exist, Syria will still exist, same as Jordan, Egypt and Iran etc. And most of these countries are their immediate neighbors. Israel will have to find a political settlement to its bad actors or they will always be creating instability and its Western allies like the US will start asking “is it worth it?”. Not to say the West will become enemies with Israel but I imagine future governments won’t always look at Israel with rose tinted glasses.

If Israel can’t find a peaceful solution then Israel will never be free of its security concerns.
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I don't know why this isn't clear. Israel does not need to find a political settlement with these bad actors because how can you negotiate peace with people who themselves do not have peace in mind? You're asking for Israel to negotiate a peaceful settlement with a government in Iran which has a stated goal of the genocide of Israel.

The only reason why Iran has not gone further to achieve its goals is because the west has seriously hampered its ability to do so. Iran almost certainly would have acquired nuclear weapons several years ago had it not been for western sanctions and the probable military actions of Mossad.

There is a very good reason why Iran is supporting Hamas and it has nothing to do with the Palestinians. So like I said before decoupling Hamas from Gaza is very important for the Palestinians but it isn't going to happen until Hamas surrenders and then the Palestinian authorities are able to organise away from geopolitical meddling.

Personally I think Israel has definitely gone way too far in Gaza and even the West Bank and they will be held accountable for that in time. However, if you're going to talk of peace then when will the likes of Iran and Yemen be held accountable for the threats against Israel? If we're only talking of peace then this cannot be ignored.
 
inbetween said:
I don't know why this isn't clear. Israel does not need to find a political settlement with these bad actors because how can you negotiate peace with people who themselves do not have peace in mind? You're asking for Israel to negotiate a peaceful settlement with a government in Iran which has a stated goal of the genocide of Israel.

The only reason why Iran has not gone further to achieve its goals is because the west has seriously hampered its ability to do so. Iran almost certainly would have acquired nuclear weapons several years ago had it not been for western sanctions and the probable military actions of Mossad.

There is a very good reason why Iran is supporting Hamas and it has nothing to do with the Palestinians. So like I said before decoupling Hamas from Gaza is very important and it isn't going to happen until Hamas surrenders and the Palestinian authorities are then able to organise away from geopolitical meddling.

Personally I think Israel has definitely gone way too far in Gaza and even the West Bank and they will be held accountable for that in time. However, if you're going to talk of peace then when will the likes of Iran and Yemen be held accountable for the threats against Israel? If we're only talking of peace then this cannot be ignored.
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As I said before, bad actors like Iran prosper when there is chaos and the Palestinian issue has been that catalyst for Iran to generate even more chaos. Please look at the history of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is as much of a creation of Israel as Hamas is. And believe it or not most times you have to make peace with bad actors especially if they are your neighbors. The idea of Palestinians giving up is a moot point. Israel has existed for 75 years and so far their is no end that Palestinians are going to “give up”, especially when regional bad actors like Iran will always be ready to arm and supply Palestinian nationalist groups. Worst of all Israel can’t even make a proper peace settlement with the Palestinians that did “give up” under the PLO which it works with, so I don’t think that is the key problem here.

Unless Israel can kill/conquer all their bad neighbors then their current coarse of action will never bring security and probably for the Middle East as a whole.
 
At some point you’d have to think someone in the USAF of joint command is going to ask why they’re spending an insane amount of money, risking lives and ageing expensive equipment airdropping aid into a country where supposedly the USA’s biggest ally controls the land borders.

If their ally started acting like an ally they could deliver 100x the aid for 1% of the cost and danger.
 
inbetween said:
Israel does not need to find a political settlement with these bad actors because how can you negotiate peace with people who themselves do not have peace in mind? You're asking for Israel to negotiate a peaceful settlement with a government in Iran which has a stated goal of the genocide of Israel.
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You keep trying to frame the issue as “peace loving Israelis kept from wonderful future by mean religiously driven Iran and Palestine” meanwhile we’ve got Likud cabinet members demanding Israel owns everything river to sea, Palestinians are driven from the land, laughing at the idea of a 2 state solution, espousing racist rhetoric and handing out weapons to illegal Israeli settlers on foreign land and it’s becoming increasingly clear to everyone else that this conflict is between 2 sets of religious extremists who have no interest in peace.

Netenyahus Israel have been pretending to be the reasonable, western friendly, peace seeking party in these disputes for 20 years when their own leaders have repeatedly expressed no interest in a peaceful solution and done everything they can to make the conflict worse, and people are waking up to it and realising that the issue here is not with 1 side.

So no, Israel doesn’t have to do anything, as long as they’re prepared to be held in the same regard as the other warmongering agitators in the region.
 
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