The perfect fumble
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 3 Jun 2012
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The split between Lloyd George and Asquith was the big reason the liberals declined so fast. The second split in 1931 because of disputes about free trade and whether to join the national unity government was another major setback.The Liberals formed governments prior to universal franchise. It was structural change not party incompetence etc that forced their decline.
There is no space for them to replace the Conservatives as a party of goverment.
They may be able to attract the Tory wets but that isn't a big enough demographic.
They wouldn't be able to coherently pivot rightwards and scoop up racist grannies and protofascists attracted to Reform etc and keep socially liberal middle class voters within their tent.
The Tories could be destroyed but the Libdems are not ever likely to command a majority needed to form a goverment. Not whilst Labour exists.
But even with the Lloyd George/Asquith split and extension of the franchise the Liberals scored reasonable numbers:
26.4% and 163 seats in 1918.
28.8% and 115 seats in 1922.
29.7% and 158 seats in 1923.
There was a second big mistake in 1923-1924: letting Labour govern with a minority government, with the idea of allowing the people to see how incompetent they were. They could've done a real coalition government with them or even the conservatives.
Propping up Labour finished them off. That's when the Telegraph started supporting the Tories, and many of the free market zealots/Libertarians moved over as well.
After that they scored:
17.8% and 40 seats in 1924
23.6% and 59 seats in 1929.
Still fairly big on % but a lot smaller in seats.
After the second big split they scored:
10.6% and 72 seats it you combine the three liberal groups in 1931.
10.7% and 58 seats if you combine the three groups in 1935.
Post War politics polarised around the two main parties, with blips in the late 70's early 80's and again 2010 to 2015 but the political zeitgeist now doesn't feel like either of those periods. No poll is showing a major liberal revival, all the volatility is on the right.