US Politics Thread

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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
LIke I said - time to enroll in Russian speaking classes.

European nations might need to ultimately commit ground troops to the war to thwart Russia - but you won't.

And when Russia shortly deploys short-range nuclear weapons - the outcry from Europe will be deafening, matched only by the lack of appropriate action.

Ukraine is dead. It's going to be a part of Russia. And in about 4 or 5 years, Poland will be invaded.
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I think you are wrong. Territorial gains by Russia (eastern Ukraine and crimea) will likely remain as is while we find a way for all sides to dress this up as victory.
We will then keep our arms industry and economies healthy by building up a cold war type military presence along Ukraines western borders with a more discreet presence in Ukraine.
I think trump is serious about Americans not underwriting European defence anymore and NATO members shouldering their share according to GDP. The US will not withdraw though - too much money to be made from cold war 2.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I think you are wrong. Territorial gains by Russia (eastern Ukraine and crimea) will likely remain as is while we find a way for all sides to dress this up as victory.
We will then keep our arms industry and economies healthy by building up a cold war type military presence along Ukraines western borders with a more discreet presence in Ukraine.
I think trump is serious about Americans not underwriting European defence anymore and NATO members shouldering their share according to GDP. The US will not withdraw though - too much money to be made from cold war 2.
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If you think for a moment that:
1) Russia will stop once it gains some or all of Ukraine - you're dead wrong;
2) The USA won't withdraw from NATO within the next 4 years - you're dead wrong. Trump is an isolationist and, as a wanna-be dictator, admires Putin. There's no way in hell that the USA is still a member of NATO for much longer.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I disagree.
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Good for you!
But if you look at the recent history of Russia under Putin, Russia has invaded neighbor after neighbor. Once Ukraine is part of Russia, history makes clear that Poland is next.

Why do you think that an isolationist, dictator-admiring Trump, won't withdraw from NATO? His base wants this. He wants this. He has both houses of congress and the courts. The USA is going to withdraw from NATO - probably within the next 2 years.

No, wait - on point 2 you're right. Pete Hegseth will forcefully oppose our withdrawal from NATO and Trump will reluctantly go along.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Good for you!
But if you look at the recent history of Russia under Putin, Russia has invaded neighbor after neighbor. Once Ukraine is part of Russia, history makes clear that Poland is next.

Why do you think that an isolationist, dictator-admiring Trump, won't withdraw from NATO? His base wants this. He wants this. He has both houses of congress and the courts. The USA is going to withdraw from NATO - probably within the next 2 years.

No, wait - on point 2 you're right. Pete Hegseth will forcefully oppose our withdrawal from NATO and Trump will reluctantly go along.
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Isolationist or not the US is obsessed with playing world police, they waited for the European empires to bankrupt themselves over 2 world wars and then swooped in as top dog I just don't see them giving up that kind of power/alliance it would be a foolish move by them when faced with their number 1 threat China.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Good for you!
But if you look at the recent history of Russia under Putin, Russia has invaded neighbor after neighbor. Once Ukraine is part of Russia, history makes clear that Poland is next.

Why do you think that an isolationist, dictator-admiring Trump, won't withdraw from NATO? His base wants this. He wants this. He has both houses of congress and the courts. The USA is going to withdraw from NATO - probably within the next 2 years.

No, wait - on point 2 you're right. Pete Hegseth will forcefully oppose our withdrawal from NATO and Trump will reluctantly go along.
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As I said. I don't agree with you and think the outcomes will be different.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
As I said. I don't agree with you and think the outcomes will be different.
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thehill.com

Bolton: Odds that Trump would withdraw from NATO very high

Former White House national security adviser John Bolton warned that former President Trump is likely to withdraw from NATO if reelected in November. Bolton, citing past threats from Trump about NA…
thehill.com thehill.com



History is a very good predictor of future events. You've plugged into the Fox faux-news narrative once more and it's affecting your ability to reason, especially wrt Russian aggression (I think there's some scope for Trump not to withdraw from NATO, but I think that withdrawal is more likely than not; I think there's zero chance that Russia will stop at Ukraine).
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
thehill.com

Bolton: Odds that Trump would withdraw from NATO very high

Former White House national security adviser John Bolton warned that former President Trump is likely to withdraw from NATO if reelected in November. Bolton, citing past threats from Trump about NA…
thehill.com thehill.com
\
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I wouldn't blame the US for withdrawing from NATO. It has been an anachronism since 1989 that has allowed European nations to shirk their individual and collective responsibility to defence at the expense of the US taxpayer.
Having said that what trump has done and will continue to do is pressure Europe to step up in this respect and pay it's share. I don't see complete US withdrawal happening as the arms industry has too many good times ahead in Europe.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
If you think for a moment that:
1) Russia will stop once it gains some or all of Ukraine - you're dead wrong;
2) The USA won't withdraw from NATO within the next 4 years - you're dead wrong. Trump is an isolationist and, as a wanna-be dictator, admires Putin. There's no way in hell that the USA is still a member of NATO for much longer.
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Russia can't even take Ukraine with their meagre defence, what is it now 3 years? and very little land taken. They have neither the wealth nor hardware to extend into other NATO countries.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I wouldn't blame the US for withdrawing from NATO. It has been an anachronism since 1989 that has allowed European nations to shirk their individual and collective responsibility to defence at the expense of the US taxpayer.
Having said that what trump has done and will continue to do is pressure Europe to step up in this respect and pay it's share. I don't see complete US withdrawal happening as the arms industry has too many good times ahead in Europe.
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Do you find your vision of where this will go as scary as the alternatives being presented to you?
I haven’t delved into it in any depth but regardless of the route taken I fear the destination may well be the same.

I could be totally wrong, so you can all jump on me if you please but the argument of doing exactly what he said he would is partly true, whatever the consequences may finally be. But I don’t remember pre election campaigning for invading Panama and or Greenland or Canada for that matter.

Withdrawal from NATO could well be first steps to an expansionist agenda, wherever that may lead.
Fanciful? Every bit as possible as an ideal for this crowd.

Next two years will be surprise after surprise.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I wouldn't blame the US for withdrawing from NATO. It has been an anachronism since 1989 that has allowed European nations to shirk their individual and collective responsibility to defence at the expense of the US taxpayer.
Having said that what trump has done and will continue to do is pressure Europe to step up in this respect and pay it's share. I don't see complete US withdrawal happening as the arms industry has too many good times ahead in Europe.
Click to expand...
Not blaming the USA for withdrawing from NATO - should it occur - misses the point of NATO entirely: it's in the West's interest and of every Democratic nation, to ensure that aggressor nations will not invade free societies. Without NATO, the risk is that all Democratic nations will fall, one by one, to aggressor nations - worst case - or - best case - some terrible war breaks out causing millions and millions of deaths.

So go ahead - don't blame the USA if it withdraws from NATO for "financial reasons" - I, on the other hand, will blame the USA for any wars that consequently result.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Not blaming the USA for withdrawing from NATO - should it occur - misses the point of NATO entirely: it's in the West's interest and of every Democratic nation, to ensure that aggressor nations will not invade free societies. Without NATO, the risk is that all Democratic nations will fall, one by one, to aggressor nations - worst case - or - best case - some terrible war breaks out causing millions and millions of deaths.

So go ahead - don't blame the USA if it withdraws from NATO for "financial reasons" - I, on the other hand, will blame the USA for any wars that consequently result.
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See my response above. US withdrawal from NATO could well be that he/they don’t want to miss out on the land grab.

As I said, fanciful?
Would you put it past the 2025 MAGA aspirations.
 
Elbow beards said:
Russia can't even take Ukraine with their meagre defence, what is it now 3 years? and very little land taken. They have neither the wealth nor hardware to extend into other NATO countries.
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Russia is currently bogged down yes.

My honest prediction is that Russia is going to deploy tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine if it gets much worse for them. Now that Trump is in office, they'll be emboldened to do so. The USA won't do anything about this. Will Europe? I hope so, but Putin is probably going to find out.
 
Elbow beards said:
Russia can't even take Ukraine with their meagre defence, what is it now 3 years? and very little land taken. They have neither the wealth nor hardware to extend into other NATO countries.
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Russia are that evil monster that wants to take over East Europe, even though they peacefully withdrew 20 years back, nothing to do with NATO moving East.

Simultaneously, Russia are this pathetic weakling who are being soundly beaten by much smaller, de-industrialised, military weak Ukraine.

Somehow both are true. It's a modern are thing, for instance, just like Schrödinger's feminism.
 
Elbow beards said:
Not a cat in hells chance, China have already warned them that that's a no no.
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We'll see.

Only it's not going to be done, straight out.

It's going to be "Ukrainian terrorists" that set off a nuclear device in an attempt to blame it on Russia.

Unless Russia's war gains momentum, I'm pretty sure that a "Ukrainian terrorist" event will occur to test the waters.

Several Russian generals have advocated for use of tactical nukes - so there's no want of advice for Putin to do so.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Not blaming the USA for withdrawing from NATO - should it occur - misses the point of NATO entirely: it's in the West's interest and of every Democratic nation, to ensure that aggressor nations will not invade free societies. Without NATO, the risk is that all Democratic nations will fall, one by one, to aggressor nations - worst case - or - best case - some terrible war breaks out causing millions and millions of deaths.

So go ahead - don't blame the USA if it withdraws from NATO for "financial reasons" - I, on the other hand, will blame the USA for any wars that consequently result.
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Fantasy - since the formation of NATO we can probably count on one hand the number of places Russia has invaded, whereas the US and UK have been invading countless countries. Maybe the reason Russia has been contained is because NATO has been so effective, but UK (US) foreign policy generally seems to operate according to the Scouse always offended, never ashamed mantra. To some extent Russia have played us at our own game by citing combatting terrorism and protecting freedom and democracy as reasons for going into Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine.
 
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