Arsenal Thread 2013/14

[bleed.blue]

Statistically Arsenal's start doesn't look quite so impressive when comparing their results against the same teams last year. They have basically only played games they won last year and have therefore dropped 5 points !

Shamelessly stolen from Rawk

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=307955.0;attach=247664;image

You will notice that City ate actually 1 point better off !

I never understood these comparisons, teams changed over the summer. It's also highly dependent on when the club plays these teams. Before and after big CL games you'll see different results than when you play some on a regular weekend. You can't compare how injuries affected both teams at the time and it's also important if they played early or late in the season, what goals are still there for the teams, how is the motivation, determination at the time. It might even depend on the weather. The first game of the season is totally different to the last of last season, even when both times Arsenal play the same team.

It's just a bit of fun but with some interesting points

Yes teams change but fundamentally results stay quite similar.

This points to the fact that Arse have had a very easy start ! When they start winning/drawing games they drew/lost last season they will statistically become more of a threat for the PL Title.

Arsenal are trying to graduate from fighting for the 4th place to the 1st place. These comparisons will be made. They have to cover a huge gap to win the title and this comparison shows that so far they haven't really done much to cover that gap.
Their problems last year were beating the top half sides and unless they show that they can improve on that, talks of their title chances are pre mature.

 

[afc16]

Statistically Arsenal's start doesn't look quite so impressive when comparing their results against the same teams last year. They have basically only played games they won last year and have therefore dropped 5 points !

Shamelessly stolen from Rawk

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=307955.0;attach=247664;image

You will notice that City ate actually 1 point better off !

I never understood these comparisons, teams changed over the summer. It's also highly dependent on when the club plays these teams. Before and after big CL games you'll see different results than when you play some on a regular weekend. You can't compare how injuries affected both teams at the time and it's also important if they played early or late in the season, what goals are still there for the teams, how is the motivation, determination at the time. It might even depend on the weather. The first game of the season is totally different to the last of last season, even when both times Arsenal play the same team.

i was about to respond to the comparism but you beat me to it and i 100% agree.

apart from a bit of fun, i think its meaningless for the reasons you stated.

you are just as likely to get 6 points against norwich 1 season then only 3 the following season. it means nothing that you beat those teams the previous season.

what should be more important is what is our points total up to now compared to last season? that is a more telling indicator.

yes the big games will matter but people are placing way more on them then there actually is.

put it this way, if we keep doing what we're doing now (blowing the small teams away) and have a ok-ish record against the top 4, chances are we would win the league (so would any other team that does likewise). im not that worried about records against top 4, as long as we aren't loosing every games against them obviously.

and people are also making more of our record then it is, the reality is our record at home against top 4/5 is very good, in last 2 seasons we have beaten city, beaten utd, beaten spurs and beaten chelsea at home.

 

[Matty]

Statistically Arsenal's start doesn't look quite so impressive when comparing their results against the same teams last year. They have basically only played games they won last year and have therefore dropped 5 points !

Shamelessly stolen from Rawk

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=307955.0;attach=247664;image

You will notice that City ate actually 1 point better off !

I never understood these comparisons, teams changed over the summer. It's also highly dependent on when the club plays these teams. Before and after big CL games you'll see different results than when you play some on a regular weekend. You can't compare how injuries affected both teams at the time and it's also important if they played early or late in the season, what goals are still there for the teams, how is the motivation, determination at the time. It might even depend on the weather. The first game of the season is totally different to the last of last season, even when both times Arsenal play the same team.

i was about to respond to the comparism but you beat me to it and i 100% agree.

apart from a bit of fun, i think its meaningless for the reasons you stated.

you are just as likely to get 6 points against norwich 1 season then only 3 the following season. it means nothing that you beat those teams the previous season.

what should be more important is what is our points total up to now compared to last season? that is a more telling indicator.

yes the big games will matter but people are placing way more on them then there actually is.

put it this way, if we keep doing what we're doing now (blowing the small teams away) and have a ok-ish record against the top 4, chances are we would win the league (so would any other team that does likewise). im not that worried about records against top 4, as long as we aren't loosing every games against them obviously.

and people are also making more of our record then it is, the reality is our record at home against top 4/5 is very good, in last 2 seasons we have beaten city, beaten utd, beaten spurs and beaten chelsea at home.

Maybe a better measure would be to see what you thought you'd achieve from each of the games you've played in the League this season, and then see what you have actually achieved.

For example, I thought City would have Won 5 and Drawn 3 so far this season, we've actually Won 5, Drawn 1 and Lost 2, so were actually 2 points worse off than I thought we'd be.

I correctly predicted wins against Newcastle, Hull and West Ham, and a draw against Stoke. However I thought we'd beat both Cardiff and Villa (we lost) but, conversely, I thought we'd draw with both United and Everton (we beat them both).

So, given the sides you've played, what did you actually, realistically, expect, from the first 8 games? How much better off are you, if at all?

Personally, I had Arsenal as follows after the initial 8 games:-

Villa (H) - WIN
Fulham (A) - WIN
Spurs (H) - DRAW
Sunderland (A) - WIN
Stoke (H) - WIN
Swansea (A) - DRAW
West Brom (A) - WIN
Norwich (H) - WIN

So, that's 6 wins, 2 draws, a total of 20 points. Arsenal have actually Won 6 Drawn 1 and Lost 1 so, by my own reckoning, they're actually 1 point worse off than I thought they would be. Given I don't really view Arsenal as legitimate title contenders, the fact I thought they'd only drop 4 points after 8 games just indicates how relatively easy your games have been thus far, both on paper and, in reality.

 

[afc16]

I never understood these comparisons, teams changed over the summer. It's also highly dependent on when the club plays these teams. Before and after big CL games you'll see different results than when you play some on a regular weekend. You can't compare how injuries affected both teams at the time and it's also important if they played early or late in the season, what goals are still there for the teams, how is the motivation, determination at the time. It might even depend on the weather. The first game of the season is totally different to the last of last season, even when both times Arsenal play the same team.

i was about to respond to the comparism but you beat me to it and i 100% agree.

apart from a bit of fun, i think its meaningless for the reasons you stated.

you are just as likely to get 6 points against norwich 1 season then only 3 the following season. it means nothing that you beat those teams the previous season.

what should be more important is what is our points total up to now compared to last season? that is a more telling indicator.

yes the big games will matter but people are placing way more on them then there actually is.

put it this way, if we keep doing what we're doing now (blowing the small teams away) and have a ok-ish record against the top 4, chances are we would win the league (so would any other team that does likewise). im not that worried about records against top 4, as long as we aren't loosing every games against them obviously.

and people are also making more of our record then it is, the reality is our record at home against top 4/5 is very good, in last 2 seasons we have beaten city, beaten utd, beaten spurs and beaten chelsea at home.

Maybe a better measure would be to see what you thought you'd achieve from each of the games you've played in the League this season, and then see what you have actually achieved.

For example, I thought City would have Won 5 and Drawn 3 so far this season, we've actually Won 5, Drawn 1 and Lost 2, so were actually 2 points worse off than I thought we'd be.

I correctly predicted wins against Newcastle, Hull and West Ham, and a draw against Stoke. However I thought we'd beat both Cardiff and Villa (we lost) but, conversely, I thought we'd draw with both United and Everton (we beat them both).

So, given the sides you've played, what did you actually, realistically, expect, from the first 8 games? How much better off are you, if at all?

Personally, I had Arsenal as follows after the initial 8 games:-

Villa (H) - WIN
Fulham (A) - WIN
Spurs (H) - DRAW
Sunderland (A) - WIN
Stoke (H) - WIN
Swansea (A) - DRAW
West Brom (A) - WIN
Norwich (H) - WIN

So, that's 6 wins, 2 draws, a total of 20 points. Arsenal have actually Won 6 Drawn 1 and Lost 1 so, by my own reckoning, they're actually 1 point worse off than I thought they would be. Given I don't really view Arsenal as legitimate title contenders, the fact I thought they'd only drop 4 points after 8 games just indicates how relatively easy your games have been thus far, both on paper and, in reality.

the problem as has been said hundreds of times before is that games are not played on paper.

its all very well predicting but apart from doing it as a bet or accumulator, theres very little meaning in it and results always prove its fruitless and not insightful at all.

for example who thought we'd loose to villa at home? utd to west brom? or draw against southampton?

spurs getting hammered at home to west ham?

i've honestly never bothered with predicting results to work out how well we will do, as the actual results hardly ever turn out like that.

and once again another person saying how easy our games have been yet very funny how your own teams don't manage to win these very easy games....<br /><br />-- Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:20 pm --<br /><br />no games are easy in the pl and winning against west brom or southampton or swansea can sometimes be just as hard as winning against city/utd chelsea etc.

 

[GunnerGer]

I can fully understand the reasons why fellow Arsenal fans are more optimistic this season, I just wish they could reign it in a wee bit, at least for another few weeks.

Despite what some people think, the games against Liverpool and Utd coming up will tell us a lot. We struggled last times to impose our game on our our main rivals, whether that be standard of player, form etc, but I tend to think it was mostly to do with mentality.

I don't think we believed last season at times that we were the better team, and ended up starting slowly in a lot of big games, making silly mistakes and going behind against City, United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Bayern etc before we actually started playing and by then it was too late.

Hopefully we can impose our game on these teams, results like the Man City game pre season, the Napoli game etc will hopefully give them confidence to do so, but we must wait and see.

A more quiet confidence is what this Gooner will express.

 

[dave_blue12]

no games are easy in the pl and winning against west brom or southampton or swansea can sometimes be just as hard as winning against city/utd chelsea etc.

Statistically it is clearly more difficult to win points against the top teams than against the bottom teams. Arsenal have thus far largely played bottom teams.

You Gooners can carry on kidding yourselves and you may turn out to be the real deal but your fixtures thus far prove nothing.

 

[bleed.blue]

i was about to respond to the comparism but you beat me to it and i 100% agree.

apart from a bit of fun, i think its meaningless for the reasons you stated.

you are just as likely to get 6 points against norwich 1 season then only 3 the following season. it means nothing that you beat those teams the previous season.

what should be more important is what is our points total up to now compared to last season? that is a more telling indicator.

yes the big games will matter but people are placing way more on them then there actually is.

put it this way, if we keep doing what we're doing now (blowing the small teams away) and have a ok-ish record against the top 4, chances are we would win the league (so would any other team that does likewise). im not that worried about records against top 4, as long as we aren't loosing every games against them obviously.

and people are also making more of our record then it is, the reality is our record at home against top 4/5 is very good, in last 2 seasons we have beaten city, beaten utd, beaten spurs and beaten chelsea at home.

These are the sort of arguments THFC6061 used to put forward in the spurs thread last year.
I sincerely hope you stick around long enough for when reality kicks in and the natural order is restored.
One top 10 opponent you have played so far and you just nicked that game by the thinnest of margin vs Spurs.

 

[afc16]

no games are easy in the pl and winning against west brom or southampton or swansea can sometimes be just as hard as winning against city/utd chelsea etc.

Statistically it is clearly more difficult to win points against the top teams than against the bottom teams. Arsenal have thus far largely played bottom teams.

You Gooners can carry on kidding yourselves and you may turn out to be the real deal but your fixtures thus far prove nothing.

of course its harder but what i mean is that in reality how the league is theres just as much chance of a southampton beating you as there is a city.

all the top teams have had seasons where theyve done well against the big teams and not as well against the smaller ones and vice versa.

going by your logic utd would have expected to beat west brom and southampton at home but they didn't, yet they might well beat city liverpool arsenal at home.

 

[afc16]

i was about to respond to the comparism but you beat me to it and i 100% agree.

apart from a bit of fun, i think its meaningless for the reasons you stated.

you are just as likely to get 6 points against norwich 1 season then only 3 the following season. it means nothing that you beat those teams the previous season.

what should be more important is what is our points total up to now compared to last season? that is a more telling indicator.

yes the big games will matter but people are placing way more on them then there actually is.

put it this way, if we keep doing what we're doing now (blowing the small teams away) and have a ok-ish record against the top 4, chances are we would win the league (so would any other team that does likewise). im not that worried about records against top 4, as long as we aren't loosing every games against them obviously.

and people are also making more of our record then it is, the reality is our record at home against top 4/5 is very good, in last 2 seasons we have beaten city, beaten utd, beaten spurs and beaten chelsea at home.

These are the sort of arguments THFC6061 used to put forward in the spurs thread last year.
I sincerely hope you stick around long enough for when reality kicks in and the natural order is restored.
One top 10 opponent you have played so far and you just nicked that game by the thinnest of margin vs Spurs.

you talk of natural order but in actual fact the natural order for the majority of even just the last 10 years has been for arsenal to finish above city. you seriously can't say after finishing above us a handful of times that that is the 'natural order'?

talk about natural order when you've been finished above us for 10/20 years, as thats how long it has to realistically be before its considered a natural order.

 

[carlos tevez is a blue]

somebody asked for a gif of wilsheres goal earlier couldn't be bothered to go back and find who it was but here goes

<a class="postlink" href="http://abload.de/img/arsenal-yrj6rfkydb.gif" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://abload.de/img/arsenal-yrj6rfkydb.gif</a>

It was me. Superb goal. I feel dirty because I could watch that all day.