Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Gaylord du Bois]

That's amazing. Add in those with immunity via infection - surely that's at very, very least 15% of the population too? Either way, it's running out of places to go now.

Going by that data it suggests 60% will have had both doses by the beginning of July and quite possibly 100% of those willing or able to have the first dose.

 

[Manc in London]

Anyone heard what the plan is for the 40-50 year olds in England now? Supposedly vaccination from now to first week of May, but heard that all nhs being told not to offer to this group proactively unless have additional conditions.

I guess it will depend on the area. I am still registered in Haringey, even though I have not lived there for 15 years. They are lagging behind somewhat and are still vaccinating the over 50s. While next door in Enfield, they are already giving vaccines to people in their mid 30s. They are also down to people in their early 40s in Hertfordshire.

 

[BlueAnorak]

But she is suggesting exactly using a model - her own model!

Any imaginary model with realistic assumptions is better than the drivel that SAGE served up.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Any imaginary model with realistic assumptions is better than the drivel that SAGE served up.

You just don't like the conclusions.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:


Back to normal data now everywhere after the Easter two day reports


0 deaths - was 1 last week

82 cases - was 60 last week

1.5% positivity - was 1.3% last week

 

[Healdplace]

Wales vaccination update:

1, 502, 641 first doses given - 9449 today - was 2820 yesterday & 13, 473 last week

475, 570 second doses given - 6319 today - 1568 yesterday & 13, 921 last week

So over double yesterday but about half of where we were last week.

The April shortages warned about do seem to be biting. Yet second doses are not shooting up in the way we were told might occur as these take priority when due at 12 weeks in April over new first doses.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe app predicted cases drop below 2000 from 2100 to 1922. Fall of 178 in day.

And self reported ongoing symptomatic cases drop big once again (even now Easter is over) by a whopping 2922 on the day to go below 50, 000 in the UK at just 47, 222.

That is a fall in just 7 days from 66,666 last Wednesday! A giant one third fall in a week.

Every region has fallen again in the range of predicted cases by reports to the app.

The list now is (numbers are case range in the region per million people)

SCOTLAND 0 - 123

NE & YORKSHIRE 29 - 134

LONDON 16 - 70

NORTH WEST 11 - 73

WALES 0 - 67

SOUTH EAST 12 - 45

MIDLANDS 5 - 70

SOUTH WEST 7 - 50

EAST 5 - 46

NORTHERN IRELAND 0 - 415


Must admit I do not fully understand the placements on this table from these numbers - how is Scotland 'worst; and N Ireland 'best' ?

Either way every region is miles below where it was and North West is doing much like Greater Manchester when you see that as akin to the range of Weekly Pop Scores in the area - as in effect this is a version of to some degree.

GM would in that basis be as of last night 43 - 70 - the range of lowest (Trafford at 43) to highest (Rochdale at 70) on Weekly Pop scores.

But not identical as that is per 100,000 NOT a million.

Someone who understands maths better than I do might explain better as I am lost on what Zoe actually is measuring.

 

[Healdplace]

Joint press briefing at 3 PM from UK medical authorities and vaccine regulator in UK on the AZ situation.

Will be on TV and involve Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, Dr June Raine, Sir Munir Pirmohamed and Professor Wein Shen.

This will occur at the same time as the EU give a press conference on the vaccine - presumably on purpose!

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Joint press briefing at 3 PM from UK medical authorities and vaccine regulator in UK on the AZ situation.

It's also been reported EMA may be making a statement today too.

 

[Healdplace]

It's also been reported EMA may be making a statement today too.

At the same time - see edit above.

You would have hoped this is on purpose and sees some degree of cooperation.