Coronavirus (2021) thread

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England Hospital Deaths

Four of the last 5 days have registered ZERO deaths on the day before.

No day for which deaths have been ascribed to the actual date currently totals higher than 9 in the past 8 days.

Last time that happened was the first week in September.
 
Manchester33 said:
Very very interesting!

Perhaps we had a spike in Europe in 2019 prior to the major spike in March/April 2020?
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Maybe it was a less virulent variant that became more deadly after a mutation?
I believe deaths weren't noticeably above 5 year averages in 2019 so it seems unlikely it was the same strain as the one that ravaged Italy in Feb/Mar 2020 and that triggered the pandemic across Europe.
 
west didsblue said:
Maybe it was a less virulent variant that became more deadly after a mutation?
I believe deaths weren't noticeably above 5 year averages in 2019 so it seems unlikely it was the same strain as the one that ravaged Italy in Feb/Mar 2020 and that triggered the pandemic across Europe.
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I have mentioned before my friend who was in hospital very ill with an unknown disease they never fully clarified in mid December 2019 when nobody was thinking Covid.

It left her with breathing difficulties and put her on the shielding list from day one of Covid when it arrived three months later.

Must say it would not surprise me if a few cases from that winter were undiagnosed or misdiagnosed. Including some deaths maybe ascribed to other things.

But it seems hard to imagine something as virulent as Covid not being obvious for months as something new. Unless as suggested its first version mutated quickly to become more contagious.

We had chatted about the possibility she had Covid. She will be very interested in this story.

But I will keep an open mind until we see more evidence.
 
Healdplace said:
Btw the person who works on the Gov UK website publishing data has been explaining how his bank holiday was ruined yesterday and why it was hours late appearing.

He cited the way Wales had created confusion by changing the data and not releasing clear consistent information as one of several problems they had to clarify before reporting.

Today Wales are more specific about what today's data shows - which they had not been over the weekend. We were left guessing. So was Gov UK it appears.

Though there were other things going on that were the main issue it seems.

Here is what he posted - as I am not sure I fully understand what the problem was but he means they had issues over England death numbers too. Best I quote him directly:-

QUOTE

We identified an inconsistency during QA. Took a while to find the problem (England deaths), report + consult w/ source & decide on action. Then remove 2mil deaths figures & reload from yesterday. Not how I was planning to spend my bank holiday Monday.
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The guy in charge of the England data (and probably compiling the U.K. figures) had been reporting directly to Sir Simon Stevens. That’s less of an issue now I guess.
 
There have been various studies looking at COVID in late 2019.

Detected in sewerage samples
www.sciencedirect.com

SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating in northern Italy since December 2019: Evidence from environmental monitoring

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a public health emergency worldwide,…
www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com

Detected in cancer screening samples

SAGE Journals: Your gateway to world-class research journals

Subscription and open access journals from SAGE Publishing, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com

etc

As @west didsblue says, it's very hard to reconcile widespread prevalence as early as September with no noticeable hospitalisation/death spike or indeed no worldwide spread at that point.

No idea what conclusions should be taken from all this.
 
Healdplace said:
I have mentioned before my friend who was in hospital very ill with an unknown disease they never fully clarified in mid December 2019 when nobody was thinking Covid.

It left her with breathing difficulties and put her on the shielding list from day one of Covid when it arrived three months later.

Must say it would not surprise me if a few cases from that winter were undiagnosed or misdiagnosed. Including some deaths maybe ascribed to other things.

But it seems hard to imagine something as virulent as Covid not being obvious for months as something new. Unless as suggested its first version mutated quickly to become more contagious.

We had chatted about the possibility she had Covid. She will be very interested in this story.

But I will keep an open mind until we see more evidence.
Click to expand...

There are many respiratory diseases with similar symptoms to COVID.

I've had two recently: One about three years ago which left me struggling for several months. I could sleep for weeks due to coughing. I had an opinion it was para-influenza, but no definitive diagnosis.

I visited Shanghai Oct 2019 and went down with a very nasy respiratory bug shortly afterwards, similar symptoms to COVID. I think it's highly unlikely it was, simply because a COVID epidemic didn't spread across the UK immediately (doubling time 3 days for the original variant!).
 
Scotland data:

0 deaths - was 1 last week

139 cases - was 133 last week

1.1% positivity - was 1.0% last week

58 patients - down 9 on last report - was 81 last week

11 ventilated icu - up 2 on last report - was 11 last week
 
roubaixtuesday said:
There have been various studies looking at COVID in late 2019.

Detected in sewerage samples
www.sciencedirect.com

SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating in northern Italy since December 2019: Evidence from environmental monitoring

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a public health emergency worldwide,…
www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com

Detected in cancer screening samples

SAGE Journals: Your gateway to world-class research journals

Subscription and open access journals from SAGE Publishing, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com

etc

As @west didsblue says, it's very hard to reconcile widespread prevalence as early as September with no noticeable hospitalisation/death spike or indeed no worldwide spread at that point.

No idea what conclusions should be taken from all this.
Click to expand...
Just been having a look on the web. This story was widely reported in mid-November 2020 and appears to be based on a non-peer reviewed paper and was subsequently investigated by the WHO. I can't find any update with WHO findings but I'm quite sceptical that it was Covid as we know it.
 
Northern Ireland data

0 deaths - was 0 last week

83 cases - was 109 last week

5.2% positivity - was 4.8% last week

7 day weekly cases 632 - was 653 at last report and 670 last week

5 Care Home Outbreaks - was 4 at last report and last week.

62 patients - up 2 on last report - was 62 last week

5 ventilated - up 1 on last report - up 2 on last week


The hospital data seems to have risen a little and so did ventilators in Scotland. Though patients down there.

Often happens over a weekend.

Will wait and see how this week pans out from here. And what happened in England over the last 4 days too before thinking it means anything.
 
So the deaths from the four nations with any of the old cases in England eliminated to come: - 8

Wk to wk: 38 v 39 v 29 v 8 TODAY



And three nation cases with England to add: - 287

Wk to wk:- 402 v 355 v 339 v 287 TODAY
 
feelymcfeel said:
Agreed mate. The boozers i went in over last summer were really strict with the rules and cleanliness. There were probably very few places that you'd be less likely to catch anything.
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Spot on. I go to a lot of different pubs (300 between July and November) and pubs and customers were putting in the extra effort to be safe, and the spike in Covid cases in mid September was clearly more due to schools and Universities returning.

That said, I'm happy that the road map for pub re-opening makes sense with 5 weeks between steps to collect and asses data.
 
Greater Manchester did not have a terrible day but not a good one either.

Bolton still top but at least not rising. Salford and Stockport up a bit after their good day yesterday (and Stockport up week to week to likely cost it the Pop Score lead).

Manchester up most day to day but down week to week.

Trafford though had a much better day and actually lost zero overall pop score points to Stockport today for first time in a while.

So a bit up and down but not an especially good day even within the North West Which fell week to week by 92 - a really good drop.

But GM only managed to fall by 17 of those - well under expectation of around 45/50 based on population.

Though Liverpool had its worst day in a while too. Up to 10 - double past 2 days and triple the few days before then - though still pretty low.

Maybe that concert at the weekend? Or is it too early.

If so maybe the Blossoms and their followers brought it back home to Stockport too!
 
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Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East UP 4 to 158 v 267

London up 23 to 216 v 401 (London big fall week to week now)

South East UP 12 to 194 v 302

South West UP 61 to 127 v 151 (double yesterday and biggest rise today)


All southern regions fall week to week again.




MIDLANDS

East down 12 to 169 v 189

West UP 15 to 152 v 220 (Good fall week to week here)




NORTH

North East UP 19 to 84 v 129 (Easily lowest region in England).

Yorkshire UP 45 to 295 v 361 (Remains largest region but doing much better).




NORTH WEST UP 24 to 248 v 340.

Best fall week to week. Second highest region behind Yorkshire.



GREATER MANCHESTER

Up 13 day to day (out of 24 rise - about on par) and sown 17 week to week (out of fall of 92 - well under expectations) .
 
Mike Brock said:
I stayed in Milan for the Atalanta game and also spent some time in Bergamo. A couple of weeks or so after I got home my wife was as poorly as I’ve ever seen her and the doctors didn’t know what it was. From her symptoms I’m pretty sure it was Covid
Click to expand...

Also stayed in Milan for the Atlanta game (and also spent a day in Bergamo).
Thankfully the only illness was my mate spewing his guts up after cocktails in Nottingham Forest bar was washed down with pints in one of the places that was designated as a City friendly pub (name escapes me but begins with B I think, not the New York City bar)

Various reports did the rounds a while back that suggested Covid might have been present in Italy back in autumn 2019.

COVID-19 circulating in Italy as early as September 2019, scientists claim | World News | Sky News
 
Greater Manchester Cases


153 cases today - up 13 on yesterday.

But down 17 from 170 last Tuesday. Which is much lower than it should be from the NW wk to wk fall of 92.






Bolton - had another bad day to stay top of the tree but on 44 - that is at least down 1 on the day but up 9 week to week.



Manchester rose from its new low yesterday by16 to 30 - though that is down 5 from last week.

Salford up by 11 to 15 which is identical to last wk.

Stockport - up by 5 to 14 which is up 4 week to week and highest here in 9 days.

Trafford down 6 on 11 - but a huge drop of 12 wk to wk. Trafford finally did not lose points to Stockport in the overall Pop Score lead as these numbers are equivalent factoring in population. A mixture of better day for Trafford and a worse one for Stockport.

Bury up 3 to 10 - which is level with last week


All other 4 boroughs managed single figures today:




Rochdale down 4 on 9 - which is down 3 week to week.

Wigan on 8 is down 4 on the day but up 1 wk to wk.

And two share top spot:-

Oldham down 5 to 6 on the day - also down 5 wk to wk

Tameside down 2 on 6 which is down 6 from last week.



Weekly total cases:-




Bury 45, Tameside 48, Oldham 66, Stockport 67, Rochdale 79, Wigan 80, Salford 92, Trafford 107, Manchester 186, Bolton 242.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 84 / 54 / UP 30 Testing positive 9.2%

Trafford 45 / 41 / UP 4 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 36 / 38 / DOWN 2 Testing positive 9.0%

Rochdale 35 / 31 / UP 4 Testing positive 9.6%

Manchester 33 / 42 / DOWN 9 Testing positive 9.6%

Oldham 28 / 37 DOWN 9 Testing positive 9.8%

Wigan 24 / 21 / UP 3 Testing positive 8.9%

Bury 24 / 22 / UP 2 Testing positive 9.1%

Stockport 23 / 23 / LEVEL Testing positive 7.2%

Tameside 21 / 29 DOWN 8 Testing positive 8.1%



Bolton pulling way ahead of the rest now. Tameside go top And half the boroughs in the 20s.
 
HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:

THIS COVERS FOUR DAYS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


Numbers fell on Friday but have risen since a little in England. But the overall drop across the four days is modest. Sadly the North West is the reason it is not better. As this area is the one that has struggled most in the pat few days - quite possibly due to the Chorley/Bolton spike that the media have missed.

Let us hope this turns around in the next few days.

So the UK now has under 1300 in hospital and just 180 on ventilators.

The numbers that follow are shown as up/down versus last Friday (across the weekend) and v last Tuesday wk to wk.

England numbers generally fell Friday to Saturday and then over the weekend rose by 2 and then 14 whilst today falling by just 3. So in total are 13 up today on Saturday but 68 down on Friday.

Unfortunately the NW fared the worst in the past weekend and are largely the reason for the above. There are now MORE patients (just) in the NW now than a week ago as they have risen by 31 in the past 48 hours.

Yorkshire rose very slightly over the weekend though they are still down week to week. Though Yorkshire ventilators up (by 1) whilst North West fell (by 2).

Neither are a disaster. Just something to watch as all the other data shows these two northern regions are driving the England case numbers.


UK total:




Patients down to 1275 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 37, 973 in 106 days) :- lowest since 18 September

Ventilators down to 180 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3897 in 100 days) : lowest since 20 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

92 Covid admissions following 68, 82, 81, 89, 128, 108, 107 in the week before.

As you see some of the lowest daily Covid admissions in England for months under 100 a day over the Bank Holiday - not too surprisingly.

But the North West admissions were up quite a bit and dented the other figures.


PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 68 to 1093 v 1310 last week :- lowest since 19 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 243 in 106 days)

Ventilators: down 8 to 162 v 196 last week :- lowest since 21 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3574 in 100 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 29 to 92 v 140 // down 2 to 8 v 14

London down 23 to 292 v 368 // down 2 to 69 v 80

Midlands down 4 to 214 v 237// down 5 to 25 v 34

NE & Yorks UP 1 to 171 v 194 // UP 2 to 22 v 27

North West UP 15 to 203 v 202 // down 1 to 24 v 27

South East down 23 to 82 v 120 // down 2 to 9 v 11

South West down 5 to 39 v 49 // UP 2 to 5 v 3

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ctwrd said:
Cases up by 13. 3rd wave oncoming. Lock yourselves up guys.
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Day to day tells you little. Trends matter most. 4 deaths today are equally misleading. They will likely be up tomorrow and that would be equally wrong to consider significant.

But again like with the cases the trends are in the right direction over the past week or so. That is the thing to watch.
 
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