Coronavirus (2021) thread

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johnnymarrsbarres said:
A number of reasons (I do this for a living):

- Nobody can get insurance to cover covid and committing to non refundable production costs then having to cancel would spell financial ruin
- international travel for artists is expensive and for American acts is generally only economically viable to travel across the Atlantic for UK+European shows. Quarantine and varying levels of lockdown are making summer and autumn planning hard at the moment.
- sales and marketing windows are now too tight to turn it all around

Nobody really has much/any inside knowledge, pulling large events in 2021 is purely a pragmatic business decision.

Smaller gigs are less risky and more agile so are far easier to manage in the time frames we’ve got.
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My son had 3 booked. Only Kendal Calling left as the others cancelled. So hoping for his sake that it goes ahead.
 
artfuldodger said:
My son had 3 booked. Only Kendal Calling left as the others cancelled. So hoping for his sake that it goes ahead.
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Fingers crossed for all involved it will.

From a covid perspective everything points to outdoor events being very low risk. But as I say, things aren’t being pulled because they’re unsafe, they’re being pulled because of the potential financial risk.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
A number of reasons (I do this for a living):

- Nobody can get insurance to cover covid and committing to non refundable production costs then having to cancel would spell financial ruin
- international travel for artists is expensive and for American acts is generally only economically viable to travel across the Atlantic for UK+European shows. Quarantine and varying levels of lockdown are making summer and autumn planning hard at the moment.
- sales and marketing windows are now too tight to turn it all around

Nobody really has much/any inside knowledge, pulling large events in 2021 is purely a pragmatic business decision.

Smaller gigs are less risky and more agile so are far easier to manage in the time frames we’ve got.
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Parklife in September surely a good move..
 
Can someone explain to me how the night clubs in Durham City, that cater for the students, opened this week. Babylon & The Loft both open this week for students only.
 
It’s chuffing everywhere at the moment, my missus’ boss just tested positive, and her 2 kids, so now we just await the call from track and trace...

Shouldn't be a problem for me and her though as we are both double jabbed.
 
I hope Moderna etc are making good progress with the variant vaccines because I am not sure how long the Astrazeneca vaccine will remain effective. The B1.617.2 variant is evading some of the Astrazeneca generated antibodies. What the latest research does not take into account is cell-based immunity...they look only at antibodies but you can take the research two ways. You can be encouraged that the AZN vaccine still works if you have both doses but you can also be a little alarmed because the variants are on a path that leads to antibody evasion.
 
I was directed to someone on Twitter who has a lot more time than I do it seems. But who works like I do from the daily data not the 5 day old data.

He (his user name is andrew) has created a Weekly Pop Score table as I do for GM every day. His numbers for GM agree with mine so I know I am doing it right.

But he adds in every one of the 315 England boroughs in the NW which is great as it lets you put last nights 10 GM boroughs in context with the region. And adds the % rise over day for each borough.

He also calculates a lot , far more than I do across the week. Or more than I have the time or maths skill to do. If you want to check it out.

But here in context are the other GM boroughs in the NW so you can see GM in the regional numbers and the other number in the ranks which are out of the national list of the 315 England boroughs.



Bolton as you saw from the GM table last night I posted a few pages back were on a Pop of 411 with Manchester second on 101.

Of these Bolton's daily rise was 19.1% - high but not close to highest. Manchester up 20.4%

Only one place is on a higher Pop than Bolton in UK. That is Blackburn on 413 - and up 38.1% daily - twice Bolton.

Between Bolton and Manchester there are 4 other NW boroughs.

The worst is Rossendale on a Pop score of 302 and up 46.2% - the worst yesterday, Scary for a small borough.

But the geography of the other three tell you why as two are between there and Blackburn.

Hyndburn (Accrington) on 155 and up 40.7% and Burnley 115 up just 9%

Preston is the other one above Manchester on 111 up 26.5%

Will highlight the rest of GM below.
 
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Between Manchester in 9th and Bury (third in GM and 12 th in the NW) are South Ribble (100 - up 29.8%) and Ribble Valley (also 100 - up 8.2%)

Salford immediately below on 13th at POp 90 - up 22.4%

Before Rochdale on 15th (POP 80 and up 85%) is Chorley on 82 up 12.7%)

Pendle then comes before Wigan in 17th - Pendle 80 - up 15.2% - Wigan 74 - up just 6.7%

Fylde then intervene (POP 67 - up 9.9%) with a run of four straight GM boroughs

Oldham POP 62 - up 4.2% 24th in England list

Trafford POP 59 - up 5.5% 27th in England list

Stockport POP 54 - up 15% 31st in England list

Tameside POP 39 - up 11% 45th in England list

So ALL GM boroughs in the England top 50.


Other NW borough below the above are

Cheshire East POP 32 up 4.9% 53rd in England list

Blackpool POP 26 up 2.2% 83rd in England list

Liverpool POP 14 up 2.2% 169 in England list

Warrington POP 13 up 3.3% 180 in England list

Wirral POP 13 up 0.9% 183 in England list

Knowsley POP 12 up 2.7% 191 in England list



The Merseyside boroughs drove the last wave before Christmas but are all way down this time round.

There are actually 7 NW boroughs with single figure POP scores.

Most are in Cumbria but Halton is on just 8 and fell by 0,8%. In 254th of the 315 boroughs.

And guess what? Number 315 - best of everywhere - is in the NW too! So the region has both the best and the worst three in England.

That is (where else) but Eden! with a Pop Score of ZERO - 79% of the populatuion there have been vaccinated.
 
Incidentally the 9 boroughs with POPs in single figures in the NW have first dose vaccination % numbers that are in the top numbers of the NW.

The lowest is Halton on 70%. The highest Allerdale on 85%

Eden on zero has vaccinated 79%

This does seem to be a factor.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
It’s one thing when you’re relaxing with a glass of Sancerre in the south of France watching the world go by on a sunny afternoon, a whole other thing when all you want is a pint of Guinness and a bag of crisps at the local after work on a Thursday.
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Yeah, fair enough. I hear you there!
 
ayrshire_blue said:
583 cases in Scotland

15 aged 65+
103 aged 45-64

213 aged 25-44
246 aged 0-24
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O deaths - 2.5% positivity

Versus last Saturday 0 deaths and 413 cases at 1.6% positivity.

Cases clearly rising. If it stays at just rising cases we will get through this.

Under 3% over 65 is very hopeful the vaccines are working well.

Just as in N Ireland with lower cases the pattern is the same as to who is catching it in this latet wave and it is quite different from pre vaccination by some margin.
 
We're in for another lockdown at this rate. It's also only a matter of time before we have a vaciine evasive varient too and we truly are fucked.
Boris should have completely shut the borders. How such a small island can't stop this virus boggles the mind when you think of the likes of Australia and New Zealand have managed by doing just that, shutting the borders.
 
HolisticJim said:
We're in for another lockdown at this rate. It's also only a matter of time before we have a vaciine evasive varient too and we truly are fucked.
Boris should have completely shut the borders. How such a small island can't stop this virus boggles the mind when you think of the likes of Australia and New Zealand have managed by doing just that, shutting the borders.
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No chance. Only possibly a delay in the 21st June I reckon. Not enough hospitalisations - indeed most are people in their 20s and 30s who will survive. Also there are nowhere near enough deaths. Only 3% of Indian varriant cases are for people double vaccinated.
I suspect we need to let it rip on the 21st June to achieve better immunity across the whole population ready for the next variant (which really could be dusasterous) from which point it merely becomes an irritant like the flu dealt with by yearly vaccination.
 
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