Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Zoe App data is not good today.

They have had to create an even darker red to put Scotland and North West into. And NE and Yorkshire has now moved up into the darker pink.

Now predicting 13, 621 cases today - up 1715

And ongoing symptomatic cases up 21, 228 to 138, 930

It was a tenth of that about 5 weeks ago. This is just how fast this variant is spreading.

I guess the good news of that being it might be over faster as at this rate all those susceptible must be well on the way to having caught it in past month.

Possibly what happened in India.
 
Healdplace said:
Zoe App data is not good today.

They have had to create an even darker red to put Scotland and North West into. And NE and Yorkshire has now moved up into the darker pink.

Now predicting 13, 621 cases today - up 1715

And ongoing symptomatic cases up 21, 228 to 138, 930

It was a tenth of that about 5 weeks ago. This is just how fast this variant is spreading.

I guess the good news of that being it might be over faster as at this rate all those susceptible must be well on the way to having caught it in past month.

Possibly what happened in India.
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And Bolton (obviously on a much smaller scale to India)
 
I am not going to update the Zoe numbers as it would take all day.

Pretty much the whole UK is now a sea of some shade of pink, dark pink or red - even a lot of Wales now sadly.

Most of the South East in a swathe from Reading, Oxford and Basingstoke across much of London to north Kent and the Thames Estuary are going pink.

And in Greater Manchester the top half boroughs are all now in dark pink with big rises showing everywhere.

The North West and North Wales is almost blanketed from Cheshire up to the Lake District and in order Salford, Manchester, Trafford, Bury and Stockport are up in high watches (over 5000). With Cheshire East and Tameside a zone below in the 3000s. Wigan and Oldham though are much lower.

As for Scotland from what was a few pockets of red to what is now a four corners of the map red spread.

These are mostly as you would expect population centres and there are large rural areas unimpacted.

But in effect where there are collections of people mixing Delta has sought them out and infected them in droves it would seem.
 
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M18CTID said:
And Bolton (obviously on a much smaller scale to India)
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Yes, but the worrying thing about Bolton is that it has fallen and is clearly no longer even in the top 2 or 3 in Greater Manchester let alone the NW but the case numbers are still 3 figures daily and have only been falling modestly amd slowly despite all the attention it has had.

This does not look like it will be over in a couple of weeks even in Greater Manchester let alone the UK - as GM is clearly ahead of the curve here and will likely fall when other regions are still heading the other way. And now has many boroughs still going up not down like Bolton.

How rapidly we vaccinate the younger ages in coming weeks will be a factor but not sure how deep into the Summer this will go. It was much simpler when localised to the NW. It is a long way from being that now and this is why cases have started to escalate so much recently. It no longer IS just the NW driving them up.
 
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Bolton's cases in past 6 weeks:

Wk 1 (30 April - 6 May) 29 - 32 - 41 - 45 - 44 - 57 - 61

Wk 2 (7 - 13 May) 75 - 68 - 91 - 89 - 116 - 124 - 189

Wk 3 (14 - 20 May) 135 - 79 - 145 - 153 - 138 - 183 - 280

Wk 4 (21 - 27 May) 186 - 220 - 151 - 106 - 117 - 144 - 203

Wk 5 (28 May - 3 Jun) 241 - 127 - 113 - 151 - 98 - 149 - 117

Wk 6 (4 - 10 Jun) 135 - 171 - 120 - 114 - 127 - 133 - 103


So , yes, there is undeniable stability and improvement here but we need to see numbers like those in week 1 before we can really become hopeful.

Especially as Bolton is at the moment the only GM borough clearly going the right way.
 
Sadly, half the people in Manchester infirmary critical care with Covid are actually pregnant.

It's not a huge number but a doctor friend of mine says they are having to keep a close eye on the correlations.

There is a real concern even their previously blood cell/antibodies can be lessened by the new variant.
 
Here is Bury's six week cases track on the same basis as Bolton above (30 April to 10 June_:

Wk 1 5 - 2 - 8 - 7 - 10 - 4 - 6

Wk 2 4 - 3 - 11 - 4 - 7 - 5 - 11

Wk 3 18 - 11 - 12 - 15 - (-3) - 13 - 28

Wk 4 20 - 20 - 9 - 24 - 14 - 23 - 33

Wk 5 45 - 33 - 49 - 39 - 42 - 39 - 55

Wk 6 64 - 58 - 68 - 59 - 50 - 83 - 68
 
And Manchester:

Wk 1 37 - 19 - 28 - 14 - 47 - 39 - 25

Wk 2 (-31) - 42 - 38 - 60 - 38 - 47 - 42

Wk 3 31 - 39 - 23 - 57 - (-7) - 49 - 77

Wk 4 41 - 68 - 61 - 45 - 55 - 74 - 104

Wk 5 154 - 59 - 97 - 165 - 97 - 163 - 220

Wk 6 199 - 210 - 193 - 173 - 214 - 290 - 223
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
Sadly, half the people in Manchester infirmary critical care with Covid are actually pregnant.

It's not a huge number but a doctor friend of mine says they are having to keep a close eye on the correlations.

There is a real concern even their previously blood cell/antibodies can be lessened by the new variant.
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If true this is worrying but when you say it’s not a big number, is it 1 out of 2 that have it and are pregnant? There has been no mention of this anywhere so surprised if it’s a thing.
 
True_Blue69 said:
If true this is worrying but when you say it’s not a big number, is it 1 out of 2 that have it and are pregnant? There has been no mention of this anywhere so surprised if it’s a thing.
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This is a problem when discussing small numbers. 3/6 could suggest bad luck - members of the same neo-natal group or something. 50/100 would suggest a trend.
 
So it spreads rapidly here but in India with such a crazy population number they are now down to 91k cases a day. Doesn't add up. Even with a super strict lockdown it was running rife to the point you can't control it.
 
Scotland data:

0 deaths - was 2 last week

1104 cases - was 992 last week

4.1% positivity - was 3.9% last week

132 patients - up 8 on yesterday and 16 on last week

13 ventilated - down 1 on yesterday and up 5 on last week



NB: There was a lab processing error yesterday and about 150 - 200 of these should have been part of the 735 reported then. So it seems 900/950 both days maybe and so not a big daily rise or increase on last week as it looks.
 
grunge said:
they are telling us everything we need to know. the Indian variant is 60% more transmissible and single shot vaccine is no where near as efficient as double.

therefore need to get more people double dosed!

From Sky news.
View attachment 18837

As for Jobs etc, there is a reason the Furlough scheme is in place till September!.
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I get it but it doesn't mean people have to like it
 
Healdplace said:
Bolton's cases in past 6 weeks:

Wk 1 (30 April - 6 May) 29 - 32 - 41 - 45 - 44 - 57 - 61

Wk 2 (7 - 13 May) 75 - 68 - 91 - 89 - 116 - 124 - 189

Wk 3 (14 - 20 May) 135 - 79 - 145 - 153 - 138 - 183 - 280

Wk 4 (21 - 27 May) 186 - 220 - 151 - 106 - 117 - 144 - 203

Wk 5 (28 May - 3 Jun) 241 - 127 - 113 - 151 - 98 - 149 - 117

Wk 6 (4 - 10 Jun) 135 - 171 - 120 - 114 - 127 - 133 - 103


So , yes, there is undeniable stability and improvement here but we need to see numbers like those in week 1 before we can really become hopeful.

Especially as Bolton is at the moment the only GM borough clearly going the right way.
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And more than a month after the accelerating cases in Bolton, when we ought to see spikes in hospital admissions, they're still at levels that the NHS ought to be able to cope with. And hardly any deaths at all.
1623416962811.png
 
unicorn said:
And more than a month after the accelerating cases in Bolton, when we ought to see spikes in hospital admissions, they're still at levels that the NHS ought to be able to cope with. And hardly any deaths at all.
View attachment 18847
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The maths says this will happen and continue to happen everywhere until a variant that doesn't react to the vaccine comes along. This variant might never happen so no point in worrying about it
 
Northern Ireland data:

1 death - was 0 last week. This death was in a care home.

121 cases - was 73 last week - cases starting to rise here now too

6.0% positivity - was 4.6% last week

2 care home outbreaks - was 2 yesterday & last week

Rolling 7 cases 636 - was 604 yesterday and 495 last week

18 patients - down 1 on yesterday and last week

Ventilated 0 - same as yesterday and last week


AGES OF THE 636 TESTING POSITIVE IN PAST WEEK

0- 19 (224) 35.2%

20 - 39 (288) 45.3%

40 - 59 (98) 15.4%

60 - 79 (23) 3.6%

80 PLUS (3) 0.5%


These numbers are incredible really as they have moved almost daily in the same direction.

80.5% testing positive under 40 and only 4.1% over 60.

This is why cases are rising but in the young and healthy and mostly unvaccinated.

The difference between this wave and the one in Dec/Jan is gigantic because of this in terms of stress on the NHS and the human cost.
 
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