Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Yup - and hidden in the data is the anecdotal evidence from the NHS that those that do end up in hospital this time round have been less sick and been discharged earlier

Agreed that much is clear from how modestly the numbers are rising even in the North West in the hospital data I post every evening here.

Yes they are going up and the NW is far and away the biggest problem but it is not accelerating out of all control.

Three weeks ago there were about 7400 cases in the NW and hospital patients went in that week from 173 in hospital with 21 on ventilators to 192 with 35

By the end of the next week there had been 12,700 and patients were up from 192/35 at 271 with 46 on ventilators

Up to yesterday in the past week there have been about 16,000 new cases and there are 388 in hospital and 79 on ventilators.

It is clearly going up more than any other region and the rate has increased in the past week because of this huge case load But it is not showing a very dramatic rise other than what you would expect with numbers. As there will be a lag between testing and going to hospital.

With the one exception being ventilated patient numbers which are going up more than we should like to see.

As you say a key reason numbers are not escalating upwards is that stays are shorter than they were as these are mostly younger people who recover more quickly.

NW patients went up yesterday by just 9 but 50/60/70 a day have been admitted in past week in the NW.

You can see for yourself there that a lot are going home in order to compensate for the ones going in to show a modest daily increase.

 

[ganganvince]

‘Highest infection rate in Western Europe.’ BBC website.

’2nd lowest positivity rate in Western Europe.’ Not anywhere on the BBC website.

Main reason for the high infection rate is the amount of surge testing of people with no symptoms we do that I believe nowhere else does therefore we are not comparing apples with apples only true comparisons are hospital and death rates (death rates below) which don't really show us in a worse state than anywhere else as opposed to case rates (bottom) source travelling tabby.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

163 cases - was 118 last week

66 of them were in the North Wales counties - 23 in Flintshire and 15 in Conwy

13 of the positive cases were not Welsh reidents

1.3% positivity - was 0.9% last week


Drakeford live right now making clear Delta is in Wales. Numbers are climbing. 'We are at the start of a third wave' But adds that Wales is ahead of the rest of the UK in vaccinations and behind in case numbers. So starting from 'a good place'.

To nobody's surprise he just announced the pausing of all further opening up for four weeks.

Half a million vaccinations available over those 4 weeks to improve on their current numbers that are the 'best in the UK and one of the best in the world due to our hard working teams'.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App data

Predicted cases 16, 478 - up from 15, 758 2 days ago. The rise is slower at about 300 a day now.

Ongoing symptomatic cases go over 200K at 204, 776 cases - up 6860 in the day - down from 9529 increase yesterday.

These both suggest a slow down of the increase which has been showing over the past week.

Scotland back up to the worst in UK - ranging from 288 - 1461 - a huge upper POP score there

North West only other one in the dark red zone on range 384 - 823 - also up.

In GM Manchester is the worst ()on 13,000) followed by Stockport (now in the 9000s) and Tameside. Salford has fallen again. These numbers are hard to trust as they have little direct link to the actual daily case numbers as they are of course just estimates based on an App having people there. They have never given numbers for East Lancashire - the wort part of the whole pandemic in the pat month - because ot enough people use the App there to create a trustworthy guesstimate even.

Liverpool has accelerated so fast it is now on 16,000 and ahead of everywhere in GM according to Zoe.

I will not post local numbers here like I used to as the map is full of pinks and reds and its easier to say where numbers are not going up as pretty much everwhere is now.

Just the national picture daily. Awaiting the day those numbers start to fall again.

 

[Phil1]

Potential good news here in Spain with the decision to stop the wearing of masks in outside areas from 26th as long as social distancing remains.
Will find out in next couple of days if this is given the green light.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Some encouraging case, % positive and more importantly hospital patient numbers from Scotland today. Don't know if this is a data issue or what but hopefully not.

 

[worsleyweb]

Too many unknowns:

• The extent of vaccination
• Whether we vaccinate children
• When will the next generation of vaccines be available, and how effective will they be
• What variants are circulating and what there characteristics are - to take off they have to be more contagious than the Delta variant, or have more escape mutations, which effectively makes them more contagious.
• How effective are all the Chinese vaccines? Is it possible for example that the Delta variant, or the Epsilon variant which will surely follow some time is going to break China. If it does there;s 1.5 billion himan hosts in which more variants can form.
• And linked to that last point, what do China and the USA do when they have finished their domestic vaccination? If their vaccines are effective, then huge vaccine capacity will come online. Our vaccination is held back because of supply.

I think most likely we get on top of this when we have effective boosters which I hope will be tailored to the latest variants and not just a 3rd jab of what we have had.

3 variant references in one post and One mutation - must try harder.

 

[worsleyweb]

This is the Battle of the Somme with a fixed line of trenches. This is a mobile evolving virus. We don't know how effective our immunity if going to be in the Autumn. This variant is going to sweep Europe and the USA and what is it going to spin off? And at the same time there are vaccine trials under way the first of which are scheduled to complete in the Autumn. Unknowns.

"Mobile evolving virus" - like a variant maybe?

 

[worsleyweb]

It's not irrelevant. But deprivation matters. Forming an initial that is self-sustaining is going to depend on the nature of the community that carriers return to. Bolton and Harrow are quite different at least my perceptions of them are.

You're the poverty expert with the economics degree. We have the empirical evidence, you interpret it.

It's not factually incorrect to say that this wave was triggered by travel from the Indian sub-continent hence the argument with Government ministers about whether they shut down travel soon enough. Of course now the epidemic progresses beyond the initial clusters and its character changes.

"its character changes" - you mean like a variant?

 

[True_Blue69]

Here's some data to explain.

As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test.

Of the 73 deaths:

• 34 (47%) were unvaccinated
• 10 (14%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine
• 26 (36%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.

Is the data surprising or would you expect this?

I would expect that elderly people would still be the most vulnerable even if vaccinated. A moderate illness could be fatal for someone who is vulnerable.

The true comparison to make is what is the difference between an equivalent group of vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

Best to think about this because this will come up. You wait until people absorb this data and say "The majoirty of people who are dying of COvid-19 have been vaccinated!"

I mentioned this yesterday. Yet in India where’s the variant is from and has killed thousands, it hasn’t killed one vaccinated person apparently. Someone’s lying.

 

[Healdplace]

ONS prevalence data out each Friday today shows minimal rise week to week in England - from 1 in 560 to 1 in 520.

Wales on the other hand has risen quite a bit as real life case data has been confirming daily - from 1 in 1300 to 1 in 500 - highest pro rata in UK

N Ireland up more than England too - from 1 in 700 to 1 in 610

And Scotland has actually improved - from 1 in 540 to 1 in 600. Which may fit what Ayrshire posted above.

All now pretty much of a muchness is the thing to note as the wave has in effect become UK wide and at similar rates of prevalence. Inevitable as there was not much stopping it spread fast as people have travelled the UK without retrictions for the past weeks.

If this is where the wave effectively peaks UK wide it will be OK news. Especially as Scotland was the first to really show this increase around the same time and possibly just ahead of the NW.

So if it is falling that is what we would hope to see - first in/first out.

 

[Healdplace]

PhE study on efficacy of the vaccines versus hospitalisation shows a modest reduction of this in Delta versus the older strains.

After 1 dose was 49% effective - with Delta reduced to 31%

After 2 doses was 88% effective - with Delta reduced to 80%

In other words it should stop 4 out of 5 getting sick enough to need hospital even with Delta.


This is what you have to factor into the earlier discussion about numbers with both vaccinations dying.

They will be an even smaller fraction as to the above - so you ARE going to see a few hundred double vacciated people in hospital in coming weeks. It is not a sign the vaccine is not working.

 

[uweblue]

Not a chance people comply with a lockdown when the vast majority will be double jabbed.

I’ll be seeing my family etc whatever they say.

I agree and tbh I will be one of them, no chance I am stopping seeing my parents, kids stop seeing their grandparents, lockdown are finished now.

The public won't have appetite and won't compliant in another lockdown.

Sorry lockdown lovers I think this the last one

 

[Keith Moncrieff]

Believe it or not more people die of other causes than Covid. Get your vaccinations be sensible and try to avoid hiding behind the settee

 

[Healdplace]

New PHE study today on Delta versus older vaccines has some data

Here are the Delta numbers

91% of all cases are now Delta.

As these are mostly very recent the impact on hospitalisation and deaths may only be apparent over next 2 or 3 weeks.

67% of these Delta cases are unvaccinated 7.7% in those who have had both jabs.

48% of Delta admissions to hospital unvaccinated. 8% double vaccinated

Delta case fatality rate 0.3% versus 2% in the variant in the last wave.

How much this is age related is unclrear given the younger ages catching it.

Though the data warns a slight increase in older patients is hinting at appearing.

As I mentioned yesterday in the N Ireland age numbers.

1182 women and 1351 men over 60 up to 14 June confirmed with Delta variant

Versus 17, 787 men and 15, 638 women under 30 confirmed with Delta in same period.

As you see overwhelmingly younger people catching it.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data

2 deaths - was 0 last week

950 cases - was 1104 cases last week (did include about 150 held over from data backlog - so numbers really are flat - which is not bad news)

3.5% positivity - was 4.1% - first fall in a while I think

128 patients - down 12 on yesterday - was 132 last week - first wk to wk fall in a while here

12 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 13 last week


As Ayrshire posted earlier this does look promising news.

That Scotland and GM both early adopters of Delta are seeming to be flattening off around the same time has to be promising for the time scale it will impact the other regions it is rapidly spreading into.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I mentioned this yesterday. Yet in India where’s the variant is from and has killed thousands, it hasn’t killed one vaccinated person apparently. Someone’s lying.

Don’t forget that in this country at least, a 90 year old who died with stage 4 lung cancer, Alzheimer’s and diabetes whose just had a cardiac arrest and a stroke and was double jabbed, but tested ’positive’ is a ‘Covid death‘ and a death after 2 vaccinations.
If you wanted to prolong a pandemic and prolong people’s fears, we are demonstrating to the rest of the world just how to go about it…..

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

New PHE study today on Delta versus older vaccines has some data

Here are the Delta numbers

91% of all cases are now Delta.

As these are mostly very recent the impact on hospitalisation and deaths may only be apparent over next 2 or 3 weeks.

67% of these Delta cases are unvaccinated 7.7% in those who have had both jabs.

48% of Delta admissions to hospital unvaccinated. 8% double vaccinated

Delta case fatality rate 0.3% versus 2% in the variant in the last wave.

How much this is age related is unclrear given the younger ages catching it.

Though the data warns a slight increase in older patients is hinting at appearing.

As I mentioned yesterday in the N Ireland age numbers.

1182 women and 1351 men over 60 up to 14 June confirmed with Delta variant

Versus 17, 787 men and 15, 638 women under 30 confirmed with Delta in same period.

As you see overwhelmingly younger people catching it.

Zoë COVID study shows rates slowing down for the last few days which is good news. The key is in the power of even partial vaccination and the age effects - with signs that the youth epidemic is now running out of steam. All good news although I’m sure a few graphs in a press conference with altered Y axises could paint a completely different story….

 

[ayrshire_blue]

I'd like to see a sustained week of obvious plateau or even the slightest of declines up here @Healdplace (I know- state the obvious, so would everyone), but yesterday's figures looked really bad on all fronts where today's looks quite promising, again on all fronts.

Not much of a middle ground to speak of as yet but I think this coming week will really show any trend whether it really is slowing or beginning to go the right direction or still rising at quite fast rates. For example yesterday Greater Glasgow posted a rise of about 150 odd cases iirc on the previous week where today it is a decline of 100, so quite the up and down and hard to make out what's happening.

Probably have to wait another 7 days to judge mind you, given early weekday numbers tend to be lower anyway but Thursday and Friday of next week should paint a clearer picture and hopefully it'll be one of encouragement. That there is no word today of any data issues is good news, I was expecting a caveat when I saw the figures posted earlier.

 

[Healdplace]

England Hospital Deaths

9 with 2 from the NW.

Last week was 9 with 3, wk before 5 with 2 and wk before 11 with 4.

6 of the deaths were on Wednesday = 7 after 2 days

2 of the deaths were on Tuesday = 10 after 3 days

Those two numbers are the highest since 26 May on both dates. And the first double digit death even up to 5 days since that date too.

So there is a slight sign of death numbers edging up a little. To be expected from the rising cases, of course.

The other death today was from last week not the past 7 days.

The two deaths in the NW were one in Bolton and one in Manchester.

Other regions were 2 East, 1 London, 3 Midlands, 1 NE & Yorkshire - 0 in both SE and SW.


The agres of the deaths were:- 4 aged 40 - 59, 3 aged 60 - 79 and 2 over 80.