Coronavirus (2021) thread

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More kids need to catch it IMO and get immunity for the next variant of concern. September may be too late.

Alternatively, we could vaccinate them, avoid the risks of serious illness associated with COVID infection, and also protect the vulnerable who infected children will expose.
 
Deaths and hospitalisations are seemingly on a very slight incline - essentialy flat.

View from the Actuary community, whose profession depends on assessing such stats:

Admissions are rising sharply again after a few days of slower increases...

...Daily hospital deaths are still very low so the daily numbers are volatile but it’s clear these have been trending up over the last three weeks.


 
Manchester death rate 25% higher than the rest of England?
Hardly surprising with the some of the worst rates of hospital infection control in the UK.

5 of my older relatives have caught infections in Greater Manchester hospitals and 3 died from them.

I had to spend the night in A&E at Manchester RI on Friday. I'm fine, but I was having really weird chest pains so went in to check. I've not been in a hospital for absolutely years, mercifully, and not in even longer as a patient. Probably 15 years, and in trafford general instead. I was absolutely astounded at how bad the place was. They're falling apart. The staff were all great, but the facilities are truly atrocious. I was sat in a dark room with no windows that looked like a corridor with some chairs thrown in, with no ventilation, with a few others for literally about 9 hours without being seen. I was given a piece of paper that said 'immediate ECG' on it, which meant what it said. After half hour an hour of no one seeing to me, I asked someone and they said 'Yeah, the system is knackered, we weren't notified'. They apologised loads and got it done, but I literally would have been left there unless I asked.

I got it thankfully and all was fine, but still had an eight hour wait to go through my blood tests. I sat in that same dark corridor, immensely uncomfortable and tired, beds and equipments being wheeled past me until 6am (got there at 9) waiting to be seen. I was exhausted and felt gross. I said to one of the doctors that I can see why there is so much infection in hospitals and she just sighed and agreed. The place is fucking awful. Old, run down, uncomfortable, badly ventilated, bulbs going, not really that clean, chaos, short-staffed. They deserve so much better, the doctors/nurses. The patients too.
 
I had to spend the night in A&E at Manchester RI on Friday. I'm fine, but I was having really weird chest pains so went in to check. I've not been in a hospital for absolutely years, mercifully, and not in even longer as a patient. Probably 15 years, and in trafford general instead. I was absolutely astounded at how bad the place was. They're falling apart. The staff were all great, but the facilities are truly atrocious. I was sat in a dark room with no windows that looked like a corridor with some chairs thrown in, with no ventilation, with a few others for literally about 9 hours without being seen. I was given a piece of paper that said 'immediate ECG' on it, which meant what it said. After half hour an hour of no one seeing to me, I asked someone and they said 'Yeah, the system is knackered, we weren't notified'. They apologised loads and got it done, but I literally would have been left there unless I asked.

I got it thankfully and all was fine, but still had an eight hour wait to go through my blood tests. I sat in that same dark corridor, immensely uncomfortable and tired, beds and equipments being wheeled past me until 6am (got there at 9) waiting to be seen. I was exhausted and felt gross. I said to one of the doctors that I can see why there is so much infection in hospitals and she just sighed and agreed. The place is fucking awful. Old, run down, uncomfortable, badly ventilated, bulbs going, not really that clean, chaos, short-staffed. They deserve so much better, the doctors/nurses. The patients too.

jeez. That sounds horrible mate. Glad you were all ok.

we took our 1 year old to A+E couple weeks ago, after trying a doctor for 2 days they said take him to A+E (great help)

anyway, the waiting room was horrific.
Boiling hot, stuffy, overcrowded, sick kids and people coughing everywhere (how many infections are being spread in hospital rooms like this)
 
UK currently has more cases than the whole of the EU(!) - note log scale - but countries showing quite a divergent position, I would guess as Delta starts to take hold. Most of Europe is something like 5-6 weeks behind us on vaccinations, but currently vaccinating quite a lot faster than we are. Of course, what proportion of cases countries are picking up may be quite different, so take with a pinch of salt.

Some countries (Spain, Portugal) look to be following us quite rapidly. Likely to follow the a similar track ?

Others (France, Italy) maybe turning up, maybe not, might yet win vaccination vs virus race and avoid a spike like ours?

Then those in the best position (Germany, Poland) who even if Delta starts to drive a case increase, look to be sufficiently ahead of the virus that they'll likely avoid a spike of our magnitude.

1625069811478.png

You can certainly understand why British visitors might not be the most welcome right now.
 
jeez. That sounds horrible mate. Glad you were all ok.

we took our 1 year old to A+E couple weeks ago, after trying a doctor for 2 days they said take him to A+E (great help)

anyway, the waiting room was horrific.
Boiling hot, stuffy, overcrowded, sick kids and people coughing everywhere (how many infections are being spread in hospital rooms like this)

Yep, same. It got worse for me. Two hours in, they wheeled in some old guy absolutely smashed in a wheelchair. I'm not exaggerating here when I say this - about an hour later, he woke up from his sleep, he whipped his cock out and just pissed directly in front of him. Didn't even bother holding himself or anything. Just let it go everywhere all in front of him while he slept. Fucking GRIM. Literally two metres away. Then he fell asleep again with it out. I went and got someone to deal with it. The nurses looked absolutely fed up of it all. Cleaner came ten mins later. So fucking miserable. I asked if there was another waiting room we could move to and all they could do was apologise and say no.
 
Yep, same. It got worse for me. Two hours in, they wheeled in some old guy absolutely smashed in a wheelchair. I'm not exaggerating here when I say this - about an hour later, he woke up from his sleep, he whipped his cock out and just pissed directly in front of him. Didn't even bother holding himself or anything. Just let it go everywhere all in front of him while he slept. Fucking GRIM. Literally two metres away. Then he fell asleep again with it out. I went and got someone to deal with it. The nurses looked absolutely fed up of it all. Cleaner came ten mins later. So fucking miserable. I asked if there was another waiting room we could move to and all they could do was apologise and say no.

Christ almighty
 
re the state of the NHS, the Kings Fund is an independent body that works in this area

Without at all going into the politics as to whether this was a good, bad or indifferent decision:

During the period of austerity that followed the 2008 economic crash, the Department of Health and Social Care budget continued to grow but at a slower pace than in previous years. Budgets rose by 1.4 per cent each year on average (adjusting for inflation) in the 10 years between 2009/10 to 2018/19, compared to the 3.7 per cent average rises since the NHS was established.

The link also shows the impact of COVID on the NHS budget.

 
UK currently has more cases than the whole of the EU(!) - note log scale - but countries showing quite a divergent position, I would guess as Delta starts to take hold. Most of Europe is something like 5-6 weeks behind us on vaccinations, but currently vaccinating quite a lot faster than we are. Of course, what proportion of cases countries are picking up may be quite different, so take with a pinch of salt.

Some countries (Spain, Portugal) look to be following us quite rapidly. Likely to follow the a similar track ?

Others (France, Italy) maybe turning up, maybe not, might yet win vaccination vs virus race and avoid a spike like ours?

Then those in the best position (Germany, Poland) who even if Delta starts to drive a case increase, look to be sufficiently ahead of the virus that they'll likely avoid a spike of our magnitude.

View attachment 20384

You can certainly understand why British visitors might not be the most welcome right now.
There was an article in the Telegraph a couple of days ago detailing how every country in the EU other than Austria was only doing a fraction of the tests we do per head of population and most had much higher positivity rates.

It's not really comparing like for like when looking at case numbers alone.
 
This week's hospital admission numbers are compared to *2 weeks ago*, as never done a comparison last week at all. Just incase there's any confusion these don't correlate to actual patients in hospital which is a higher number but just to the ages of those admitted the past 7 days.

244 total admissions (57 more than 2 weeks ago)

85+: 16 (+10)
75-84: 25 (+12)
65-74: 23 (+8)

45-64: 53(+17)
25-44: 79 (+24)

Under 25s: 48 (+15), includes 15 kids aged 0-4.

Hospital admissions rising amongst every age group.
Be interesting to know how many of the 127 in the age 45 plus category have been double jabbed.
 
It's not really comparing like for like when looking at case numbers alone.

Absolutely, hence "pinch of salt"

*But* for a country like Germany, where, regardless of the precise number, the trend is still down many weeks after our trend started up, and they're vaccinating faster than us and just a short number of weeks behind, it seems very unlikely they'll follow our spike (unless vaccination isn't effective, in which case we're all doomed).

On positivity, here can see those numbers. Similar trends to case numbers, but again, comparing absolute numbers may be very misleading.

Screenshot_20210630-175749_Chrome.jpg
 
Alternatively, we could vaccinate them, avoid the risks of serious illness associated with COVID infection, and also protect the vulnerable who infected children will expose.
Well we could but the experts on the various government science/medical bodies concerned really are not too sure that it is a good idea.
 
Absolutely, hence "pinch of salt"

*But* for a country like Germany, where, regardless of the precise number, the trend is still down many weeks after our trend started up, and they're vaccinating faster than us and just a short number of weeks behind, it seems very unlikely they'll follow our spike (unless vaccination isn't effective, in which case we're all doomed).

On positivity, here can see those numbers. Similar trends to case numbers, but again, comparing absolute numbers may be very misleading.

View attachment 20387
Delta is ready I'll over Europe.
Spain and Portugal certainly have it.
We are taking testing to umber levels - especially in schools.
You could say that Spain and Portugal already have it worse than us.
 
Well we could but the experts on the various government science/medical bodies concerned really are not too sure that it is a good idea.
Do they think letting as many kids catch it as possible is better than vaccinating them?
Not seen that suggested anywhere except from you.
 
jeez. That sounds horrible mate. Glad you were all ok.

we took our 1 year old to A+E couple weeks ago, after trying a doctor for 2 days they said take him to A+E (great help)

anyway, the waiting room was horrific.
Boiling hot, stuffy, overcrowded, sick kids and people coughing everywhere (how many infections are being spread in hospital rooms like this)
My Dad went in 3 years ago to Salford Royal for several weeks and never came out.
I was disgusted at the facilities and the lack of care towards him.
I will never forgive them.
And the government talks about levelling up?
Fucking laughable, Were like a 3rd world country in the North West.
 
My Dad went in 3 years ago to Salford Royal for several weeks and never came out.
I was disgusted at the facilities and the lack of care towards him.
I will never forgive them.
And the government talks about levelling up?
Fucking laughable, Were like a 3rd world country in the North West.

awful bud. Sorry to hear that.
 
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