Healdplace
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 12 May 2013
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Somewhere -not sure which thread - I tried doing this a while ago with a few days delay - and it came out around 0.4 iirc. It is clearly far less virulent than past strains from a combination of reasons - so many have natural immunity from catching it, the vaccine levels are high, the boosters really seem to be working as an effective top up v Omicron, by far the most cases have been in under 40s (the least fully vaccinated but most likely to mix and spread) and very high numbers seem to equate to swift peaks. Though London has been fairly flat for two weeks and is falling but not rapidly. So expect the same in North West and MIdlands the two booming areas right now. With Yorkshire looking to be the next. THough asymptomatic cases may be distorting that as they seem very high this time round.
The big question remains if this will change signifcantly now it is reaching the older generation. There WILL be more hospitalisations and deaths because these are just so much more vulnerable and Covid will trigger underlying conditions. We are already seeing signs of that in the latest numbers now free of Christmas distortion. We just do not yet know how far this will go. Hopefully to nothing like it would have done with a more dangerous variant.
But this is the data that matters right now. If the ventilator numbers rise as age profile changes we should be concerned as so far that has been critical to patients being released early and not many needing icu means higher daily patient arrivals can be tolerated by reduced staff as lots are still going out. But that is in younger ages. The test comes now as it spreads to the older ages who may stay more than days.
Nobody out there seems to be looking into the care home situation. In Northern Ireland where they post data daily on this the outbreaks have quadrupled since Christmas from 44 to 179. Presumably family meeting over Christmas is a factor.
IF this is happening in the other three nations with what will be bigger numbers as NI is the smallest of the four UK nations then we will hear about it and it will impact things a lot. I am surptrised so little attention is given to what will clearly drive hospital and death numbers very quickly if these outbreak cases shift upward as in N Ireland.
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