COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Prepare yourselves, they likely won't be letting us out for a while yet. Yesterday we were told we were two weeks away from peak. Mind you, people were quite recently speculating that the peak would arrive in the first week in April.

The three most likely scenarios that have been envisaged;

1. Deaths drop to below, say, 100 a day. This is likely months away.
2. We have a handle on transmission. The NHS app, or passports. The latter depends on reliable antibody testing being widely available - well into May for any substantial quantities to be available, last I heard.
3. We have a handle on treatment. The most qualified person I've heard on the subject said a reliable vaccine is likely 18 months.

Anything else would appear to be inviting huge risk, and will likely just not happen, NHS heads and others would likely resign if they thought we weren't being careful, and the whole political situation just falls apart them.

Labour and others are likely to pester them about the exit strategy precisely because it's a no-win for the Govt. They want to signal it'll all be ok, but we really have nothing - nada - in place at this stage, except for some stuff like letting young people loose, the risk of which is greater, the sooner it is... therefore, we're waiting on testing and serious reduction in deaths. If we do peak in two weeks, that would leave the beginning of May looking very much like today, and no-one will take that risk without heavy duty safeguards which would seemingly rely on a massive, massive step forward in testing. Which is scheduled for the month of May. Therefore, June. Sorry kids.
 
blueparrot said:
No it isn’t.You think lockdown in any countries goes on until a vaccine, probably next winter, is sustainable anywhere in the world?
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I'm just going off what Van-Tam said, he's the professor, I guess he knows and pretty much said that a couple of days ago. Where do you think the virus goes after the first wave? It'll still be there, lurking.
 
 
Gelsons Dad said:
On easing the restrictions.
Think about what that question fundamentally means. It means increasing the spread of the virus and therefore increasing the rate at which people die.

Ask yourself if you would do that?

Before even considering it you need:
Cure. by this I mean either preventative cure i.e. Vaccine or acquired immunity or a medicine to control the severity of the infection. (it needs to be strong enough to stop the vulnerable dying). These are both months or even years away.

or

A compiling argument that an increase in death rate is less damaging than the long term impact of staying in lockdown. This has to consider short term social effects i.e. people going stir crazy, medium term mental health i.e. people becoming overwhelmed by depression (the press are mostly accelerating this right now) and long term i.e. increased mortality due to the upcoming financial recession.

So get yourself a pencil and pad, make two columns headed Pro and Con and draw your own conclusion.

Whoever makes the decision to ease the "non pharmaceutical interventions" as they are properly called i.e. lock down measures, has to live with every extra death that occurs either way.

Go ahead, play god, and slag off the Government while you do it.
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The questions are very repetative but the coming out of lockdown is what the public want to know,not sure if anyone is slagging off the plan or lack there of
 
Brendan110_0 said:
I'm just going off what Van-Tam said, he's the professor, I guess he knows and pretty much said that a couple of days ago. Where do you think the virus goes after the first wave? It'll still be there, lurking.
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Of course it will still be there, it will be about managing the spread as best we can using some restrictions until a vaccine. It may even need another lockdown. What we can’t afford to do economically, health mental and physical, nor socially, is stay in lockdown until it goes away or we have a vaccine.
 
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