COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Status
Not open for further replies.
MillionMilesAway said:
Possibly true, and certainly not consciously, for obvious reasons.
Click to expand...
I’ve been ridiculously good at inveigling my way into things, especially in relation to nightclub guest lists (down the years) and busy restaurants on a Saturday night (pre-‘lockdown’) - it’s a genuine art - so I don’t take kindly to being compared to a virus! :-)
 
Newman Noggs said:
That's reassuring, thanks Chippy.

Just out of interest, do you believe that the first person to catch Covid19 in the UK got it on 5th March ?

If not, since you evidently know these things, how long before that did it arrive ? A day ? A week ? A month ? 2 months ?
Click to expand...
I seem to recall the first British people to bring it to the UK was a group of skiers who had shared a chalet in France. One of them had been in Singapore where he caught it and then the people who shared the chalet caught it off him. They all returned to the UK, the South Coast iirc, where they spread it to others. Not sure of the exact timeline but before the 5th March we were looking at going skiing that week had already decided to call it off due to some cases being announced in Austria and France, the two places we had been looking at.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
The timeline in there suggests differently.
COVID-19 cases in the United Kingdom (
)
Deaths Confirmed cases
Date
Cases (% rise)
Deaths (% rise)
2020-01-31




2(n.a.)
2020-02-01




2
2020-02-02




2
2020-02-03




2
2020-02-04




2
2020-02-05




2
2020-02-06




3(50%)
2020-02-07




3
2020-02-08




3
2020-02-09




4(33%)
2020-02-10




8(100%)
2020-02-11




8
2020-02-12




8
2020-02-13




9(13%)
2020-02-14




9
2020-02-15




9
2020-02-16




9
2020-02-17




9
2020-02-18




9
2020-02-19




9
2020-02-20




9
2020-02-21




9
2020-02-22




9
2020-02-23




9
2020-02-24




13(44%)
2020-02-25




13
2020-02-26




13
2020-02-27




13
2020-02-28




19(46%)
2020-02-29




23(21%)
2020-03-01




35(52%)
2020-03-02




40(14%)
2020-03-03




51(28%)
2020-03-04



85(67%)
2020-03-05



114(34%) 1(n.a.)
2020-03-06


160(40%) 2(100%)
2020-03-07


206(29%) 2
2020-03-08


271(32%) 3(50%)
2020-03-09


321(18%) 5(67%)
2020-03-10


373(16%) 6(20%)
2020-03-11


456(22%) 8(33%)
2020-03-12


590(29%) 8
2020-03-13


797(35%) 10(25%)
2020-03-14


1,061(33%) 21(110%)
2020-03-15


1,391(31%) 35(67%)
2020-03-16


1,543(11%) 55(57%)
2020-03-17


1,950(26%) 71(29%)
2020-03-18


2,626(35%) 103(45%)
2020-03-19


3,269(24%) 144(40%)
2020-03-20


3,983(22%) 177(23%)
2020-03-21


5,018(27%) 233(32%)
2020-03-22


5,683(13%) 281(21%)
2020-03-23



6,650(17%) 335(19%)
2020-03-24



8,077(21%) 422(26%)
2020-03-25



9,529(18%) 578(37%)
2020-03-26



11,658(22%) 759(31%)
2020-03-27



14,543(25%) 1,019(34%)
2020-03-28



17,089(18%) 1,228(21%)
2020-03-29



19,522(14%) 1,408(15%)
2020-03-30



22,141(13%) 1,789(27%)
2020-03-31



25,150(14%) 2,352(31%)
2020-04-01



29,474(17%) 2,921(24%)
2020-04-02



33,718(14%) 3,605(23%)
2020-04-03



38,168(13%) 4,313(20%)
2020-04-04



41,892(9.8%) 4,932(14%)
2020-04-05



47,806(14%) 5,373(8.9%)
2020-04-06



51,608(8.0%) 6,159(15%)
2020-04-07



55,242(7.0%) 7,097(15%)
2020-04-08



60,733(9.9%) 7,978(12%)
2020-04-09



65,077(7.2%) 8,958(12%)
2020-04-10



70,272(8.0%) 9,875(10%)
2020-04-11



78,991(12%[ii]) 10,612(7.5%)
2020-04-12
Click to expand...
Unless I too am reading that wrong that puts the first confirmed cases 31 January. So assuming they had incubated and shown symptoms a few days before testing. So that puts them catching it and spreading it to approx 26th Jan. So did these cases catch it abroad or in the UK were they known to each other, guess we don’t know that.
 
blueparrot said:
Unless I too am reading that wrong that puts the first confirmed cases 31 January. So assuming they had incubated and shown symptoms a few days before testing. So that puts them catching it and spreading it to approx 26th Jan. So did these cases catch it abroad or in the UK were they known to each other, guess we don’t know that.
Click to expand...
From Wikipedia.
Late January 2020 – first cases
On 22 January, following a confirmed case of COVID-19 in the United States the previous day, in a man returning to Washington from Wuhan, China, where there were 440 confirmed cases at the time, the DHSC and PHE raised the risk level from "very low" to "low". As a result, Heathrow Airport received additional clinical support and tightened surveillance of the three direct flights that it received from Wuhan every week; each were to be met by a Port Health team with Mandarin and Cantonese language support. In addition, all airports in the UK were to make written guidance available for unwell travellers.[37][38] Simultaneously, efforts to trace 2,000 people who had flown into the UK from Wuhan over the previous 14 days were made.[39]

On 31 January, two members of a family of Chinese nationals staying in a hotel in York, one of whom studied at the University of York, became the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK. Upon confirmation, they were transferred from Hull University Teaching Hospital to a specialist isolation facility, a designated High Consequence Infectious Diseases Unit in Newcastle upon Tyne.[4][40] The index case for the UK, a 50-year-old female who had travelled from Hubei province and entered the UK on 23 January, had developed fever and fatigue after three days. Her close household contact, a 23-year-old student who had travelled from Hubei province on 6 January, developed symptoms on 28 January.[41]

On the same day, an evacuation flight from Wuhan landed at RAF Brize Norton and the passengers, none of whom were showing symptoms, were taken to quarantine, in a staff residential block at Arrowe Park Hospital on the Wirral.[42] There had previously been contention over whether the government should assist the repatriation of UK passport holders from the most affected areas in China, or restrict travel from affected regions altogether.[43][44] Some British nationals in Wuhan had been informed that they could be evacuated but any spouses or children with mainland Chinese passports could not.[45] This was later overturned, but the delay meant that some people missed the flight.[42]
 
MillionMilesAway said:
First, I would be staggered if there was a working vaccine ready for mass use before this time next year.

RNAs are chains of subunits. RNA viruses are such that they inveigle their way into body cells, and get themselves replicated by the cell's own machinery.
A lot of vaccines are similar to the main virus, but with a few changes such that the RNA doesn't do anything bad (or at least gives a very minor dose, in some cases) when it's replicated.
What the vaccine still has to do is provoke the immune response of the body to a pathogen, creating the antibodies that fight it off (one mechanism is that the antibody binds around a part of the virus, and prevent it doing anything).

For RNA vaccines, making it then is probably not that difficult, as machines will make it automatically. However, you're still looking at months before there's mass dosage. I can't see mass immunisation being an automatic plan, unless Covid-19 keeps coming back.

There are other immunisation principles which could be followed - anything that provokes the immune response would work, and that doesn't necessarily have to be an RNA vaccine (I expect it would be a main aim though).
Click to expand...
Depends what you mean by mass use. There are plenty of reports of companies planning on timelines which commence with immunisation in September. That doesn't mean they will be met of course. There's a report involving Oxford Uni on the BBC live feed at the moment

"A coronavirus vaccine could be available for the general public by September, according to a professor of vaccinology at Oxford University. Professor Sarah Gilbert told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that clinical trials of the vaccine would "be starting quite soon" and that production processes need to be set in motion quickly. "We need to start manufacturing large amounts of the vaccine," she said. "It is not uncommon for companies to start manufacturing a new vaccine before they really know for certain it works..."
 
Thing is, people are debating about whether they’ve had it earlier this year based on certain symptoms (which is entirely understandable btw) but the truth is that there will be far more people posting on this thread who’ve got it now and aren’t displaying any symptoms.

Some of them might even now be debating whether they had it in January (which they didn’t) when they have it now.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.