COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[BlueAnorak]

I would be surprised if they didn't have the data going back 100+ years.

Death certificates in were brought in 1837 and centrally recorded, so there should be 183 years worth of monthly death statistics to draw upon, and not...10.

Indeed. When I worked at the GRO in Souhport, some of the early yearly reports made fascinating reading.

 

[domalino]

Don’t forget we didn’t go to Bergamo, we played in Milan but obviously the Bergamese were a the game and Milan is in Lombardy.

But yes, interesting, that. It’s intriguing that they don’t know what was causing the “strange” pneumonia. Surely any survivors could confirm what symptoms they had before they got pneumonia?

The story is bullshit.

The Italians have identified the patient zero who caused the pandemic in Bergamo. They can (and have) look at the RNA of the virus from each sample tested and work out a family tree of infections.

It took about a month for that 1st infection to bring Lombardy to its knees and have the world seeing pictures of bodies piled up in the streets. It simply is not possible that people had it in Bergamo in early November.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

They are even posting the analysis of tested coronavirus samples online, so you can see where countries got infected, how it spread across the globe all traced back up the evolutionary tree to Wuhan.

 

[Gabriel]

Think it would be more of a question for the care homes and their doctors. Doubt any hospital has refused to take care home residents because at this stage we have a lot of capacity and have no need to.
A lot of these people in care homes would be very frail though and decisions could have been made they were too frail for a ventilator and kept in familiar surroundings rather than the intense stress ventilation causes. I don’t know though it will all come out later.

Similarly, there'll be families looking at people over 100 being applauded out of hospitals, and they'll be thinking of their loved ones who were younger and who died in care homes or at home: what If? It's a human tragedy but one from which we must learn.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

 

[BlueAnorak]

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/strange-pneumonia-seen-in-lombardy-in-november/

interesting - confirms what many suspected. know several blues who came back poorly from Bergamo.

I wonder if China are just about to blame Italy?

 

[blueparrot]

Similarly, there'll be families looking at people over 100 being applauded out of hospitals, and they'll be thinking of their loved ones who were younger and who died in care homes or at home: what If? It's a human tragedy but one from which we must learn.

I understand that and agree. I’d just be very surprised in most cases when care home residents fall ill there isn’t a conversation that involved relatives about sending that patient to hospital. I’d be even more surprised if any hospital refused admission to a patient sent to them. Unless it all happens much quicker than I think it does.

 

[SWP's back]

The figure used early on of 1 death being about 1000 cases gives similar figures. Don’t know how they came up with the ratio though.

Nah. That’s the same 0.1% ratio as Flu. We’d not be in lockdown for that.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I think it’s time Andy Burnham did his own briefing on one of the 18:30 North West Tonight slots this week to really send a message to us.

Greater Manchester has looked absolutely awful over the last couple of weeks. Especially when WMP releases much smaller figures over three weeks than we had in just one weekend.

I see from today’s BBC 17:00 briefing graphs, that our region (NW) is currently on the largest/steepest rise in cases and deaths at the moment!

Sounds like a good idea. I saw Andy on breakfast TV this morning and overall he was good. However, Andy could only give the example of a brewery providing hand sanitizer as the contribution of local industry to tackling the virus whilst the Mayor of Birmingham can reel off good work from Land Rover and Cadbury’s etc. He could have mentioned us and Trafford Tinpots!!

 

[blueparrot]

Nah. That’s the same 0.1% ratio as Flu. We’d not be in lockdown for that.

We might if the whole country got flu at the same time. Anyhow I have no idea not sure anyone does yet, I don't know where the figure came from just it was was used early on in the press conferences and that it gives a similar figure to that German 16% thing, which I also know little about.

 

[SWP's back]

We might if the whole country got flu at the same time. Anyhow I have no idea not sure anyone does yet, I don't know where the figure came from just it was was used early on in the press conferences and that it gives a similar figure to that German 16% thing, which I also know little about.

In the early press conferences they were optimistically talking about 1%. No one in an official capacity have been talking about 0.1%.

I’ll say again, we wouldn’t lock down for that. The models that made the Govt act suggested 250,000 would die without the lockdown. You can’t get to 250,000 on a 0.1% death rate.