COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Marvin]

Once the lockdown eases without vaccine, to me that says herd immunity is the plan

Zero testing and tracing says so too (all our testing goes towards diagnoses, and front line staff). If you look at what is being done it makes sense if they have an eye on the long term. I think their strategy was valid initially but the evidence from South Korea and the availability of rapid testing should have changed the strategy.

 

[birch villa]

Zero testing and tracing says so too (all our testing goes towards diagnoses, and front line staff). If you look at what is being done it makes sense if they have an eye on the long term. I think their strategy was valid initially but the evidence from South Korea and the availability of rapid testing should have changed the strategy.

Seem to be behind in the testing capacity , hoping this improves quickly this is essential,like you I feel herd immunity is the long term plan at present

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

The Government would have gone for herd immunity if the NHS could have coped.....
Once restrictions are lifted the NHS will have more capacity this time round and the government will allow more to be infected till they call another lockdown.

Agreed flatten the curve just means you squash the spike so the nhs can cope which it seems to be doing a good job of. But when you squash the curve aren’t you just pushing the deaths to the right, so the number of of infections and deaths will come eventually but just be delayed?

I don’t hear much about the 4 stage strategy anymore. I think we are still in the delay phase. Delay being delaying the inevitable transmission in society for a period of time?

 

[jonmcity]

herd immunity without a vaccine is going to kill tens of thousands

 

[Marvin]

The Government would have gone for herd immunity if the NHS could have coped.....
Once restrictions are lifted the NHS will have more capacity this time round and the government will allow more to be infected till they call another lockdown.

They've done well so far if the plan was herd immunity. Shielded the vulnerable and prevented the NHS from being overwhelmed. However, the death rate at this moment is I believe much higher than it would have been tighter social distancing and testing and tracing been implemented. The only way to interrupt the virus transmission is to establish distance around infected people and you do that through social distancing and testing. We've done neither to the maximum.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

herd immunity without a vaccine is going to kill tens of thousands

Telling everyone to stay in their house and close down the entire economy until a vaccine is developed (say 12 to 18 months ) will kill far more.

 

[Marvin]

herd immunity without a vaccine is going to kill tens of thousands

herd immunity without a vaccine is the best solution. It's just a question of how you get it. It is the only solution.

However there will be a vaccine, and then it will be seen to have been the wrong move.

 

[blueparrot]

herd immunity without a vaccine is the best solution. It's just a question of how you get it. It is the only solution.

However there will be a vaccine, and then it will be seen to have been the wrong move.

Thats the point though full lockdown until a vaccine isn’t possible, full herd immunity isn’t possible without too many deaths and nhs overload. A balance between the two until a vaccine is the only choice.

 

[jonmcity]

“For herd immunity to work a large proportion of the population need to be vaccinated.”

Dr Sadarangani is the Sauder Chair in Pediatric Infectious Diseases at the University of British Columbia.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Agreed flatten the curve just means you squash the spike so the nhs can cope which it seems to be doing a good job of. But when you squash the curve aren’t you just pushing the deaths to the right, so the number of of infections and deaths will come eventually but just be delayed?

I don’t hear much about the 4 stage strategy anymore. I think we are still in the delay phase. Delay being delaying the inevitable transmission in society for a period of time?

Personally, I’d guess that we are on the correct path, for the simple reason that until there is a vaccine then COVID is just going to keep on coming in spikes. Consequently the more people subjected to it the better.