COVID Data Thread

[Healdplace]

^ To be fair to Greater Manchester's figures, we do have around 40% of the North West’s population.

~7m NW population; ~2.8m GM population.

Correct why I always say that the par is around where it is today. And refer often to being above or below par in my posts.

I mean by par relative to population expectations. It has been in the 50% or above recently and was a few weeks ago in the lower 30%s

These changes help show how relatively well GM is doing V the North West and it is pretty well on a par now for the first time in a while. As Omicron arrived first here it seems but is now appearing right across the region.

Hopefully that might mean GM starts to fall first too.

 

[Healdplace]

WEEKLY POP SCORES IN GREATER MANCHESTER

Keep thinking this cannot get any worse. Then it does.

EVERY borough is way over its highest ever numbers. In fact double or treble its worst in most cases!

As of last night:



SALFORD 2077* - was 1149 last week & 393 last month *Highest ever Weekly Pop Score in GM

STOCKPORT 2055 - was 1012 last week & 395 last month The fastest climber over Christmas

TRAFFORD 1985 - was 1197 last week & 443 last month Likely to join the 2K club tonight

MANCHESTER 1933 - was 1152 last week & 310 last month As will Manchester

WIGAN 1798 - was 704 last week & 411 last month Biggest riser in past few days

TAMESIDE 1768 - was 817 last week & 374 last month

BURY 1683 - was 1019 last week & 375 last month

OLDHAM 1564 - was 652 last week & 298 last month

ROCHDALE 1495 - was 744 last week & 393 last month

BOLTON 1399 - was 705 last week & 305 last month 'Best; in GM by far and miles clear now as the lowest Pop Score across the pandemic after being behnd Stockport a week or so ago!

HOW MUCH IS THE FACT THAT BOLTON WAS THE FIRST FOCUS OF THE DELTA WAVE IN APRIL/MAY IN THE UK AND DROVE THE GM RISE UNTIL MID SUMMER A KEY IN WHY IT IS DOING SO WELL NOW WITH OMICRON? AS IT DID WITH DELTA CASES UP TO OMICRON ARRIVING TOO FOR THE AUTUMN? AND WILL THIS DEGREE OF 'IMMUNITY' LAST OR IS IT JUST DELAYING OMICRON TAKING OVER BOLTON TOO IN THE END AFTER THE OTHER NINE BOROUGHS?

 

[Octavian]

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

NB: CASES COVER 48 HOURS NOT JUST YESTERDAY - DEATHS ARE YESTERDAY ONLY

3 deaths - was 10 last week

21,051 cases - highest EVER report even for 2 days - was 7954 for the same TWO days last week.

The testing delays make positivity impossible to compare. But it has been VERY high.

NO HOSPITAL DATA HAS BEEN UPDATED SINCE 22 DECEMBER 'DUE TO THE (VERY LONG!) HOLIDAYS

 

[Healdplace]

FIinally we have some data from England hospital deaths covering the 6 day period 25 - 30 DECEMBER

They have - however - only released them as a single number collating them all.

IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER REGISTRATION OF DEATHS WILL HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY PERIOD WITH EXTRA BANK HOLIDAYS ADDING TO THE USUAL CLOSURES OF REGISTRARS.


TOTAL DEATHS RECORDED OVER THOSE DATES:- 365 WITH 59 NORTH WEST

THE SAME SIX DAYS LAST WEEK TOTALLED 489 WITH 59 NORTH WEST

AND THE WEEK BEFORE 474 WITH 82 NORTH WEST


Hard to judge how these really compare until we see next week as there may be a LOT of catch up deaths not registered over these long holiday breaks. But for now it does not look like there has been a big escalation at least given the cases rising as they have. Though deaths will, of course, lag that data. Henceagain waiting until at least this time next week to see more clearly any pattern.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL 365 DEATHS : OVER THE SIX DAYS OF CHRISTMAS (REPORTED DATA FOR 25 - 30 DEC)


By Region:-

East 49, London 75, Midlands 79, NE & Yorkshire 49, North West 59, South East 34, South West 20



Most by Trust:-

15 Nottingham, 13 Birmingham


North West Trusts:-

8 each in Manchester & Mid Cheshire, 7 in Salford, 6 each in Liverpool & St Helens, 4 in Bolton, 3 each in Morecambe & Tameside, 2 each in Blackpool,Pennine Acute, Warrington & Wirral AND 1 each in East Lancashire, North Lacashire, Southport, Stockport, Wigan & Christie's Manchester.


By Age:-

0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (8), 40 - 59 (45), 60 - 79 (134), 80 PLUS (177)


THE WEEKLY TOTAL FOR THE WEEK 19 - 25 DECEMBER IS 433

THIS IS DOWN FROM 508 THE WEEK BEFORE

BUT CAUTION IS NEEDED AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF LAG FROM HERE DUE TO LATE REPORTING

EVEN SO IT DOES NOT SEEM AS IF DEATHS ARE RISING MUCH IF AT ALL AS WE HEAD INTO MID WINTER

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

9 deaths - was 11 last week

16,857 cases - was 6215 last week

27.1% positivity - was 12.7% last week

810 patients - up 131 on yesterday - was 540 last week

34 ventilated icu - was 36 yesterday & 38 last week

SO 50% WEEKLY RISE IN PATIENTS MUCH AS IN LONDON AND NORTH WEST IN ENGLAND BUT SO FAR (AS THERE TOO) NO SUCH RISE IN ICU VENTILATED BEDS - INDEED THERE WERE FALLS.

THOSE WOULD LAG A BIT BEHIND PATIENT RISES BUT IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH REPORTS OF OMICRON NOT REACHING THE LUNGS IN THE WAY DELTA DID AND OF COURSE WHY DEATHS MAY NOT SKYROCKET EITHER IN A WEEK OR TWO

STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THIS MIGHT BE A HUGE CASES EPIDEMIC BUT NOT ONE THAT TRANSLATES MUCH FURTHER. HOPEFULLY.

 

[Healdplace]

FIRST DATA FROM NORTHERN IRELAND IS AS EXPECTED A LITTLE LESS GOOD THAN IT WAS PRE CHRISTMAS.

HERE ARE THE NOW ALMOST 32,000 CASES OVER THE PAST WEEK - DOUBLE THE 17 K LAST WEEK

AS YOU SEE THE TRENDS CONTINUE.UNDER 20s HAVE PLUMMETED AS SCHOOLS ARE OUT.

THE 20 - 39 AGE GROUP HAS ACCELERATED EVEN MORE AND IS OVER 50% OF THEM ALL. HENCE MANY CATCHING IT BUT RELATIVELY SAFE FROM SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES REGARDLESS OF VARIANT. BUT VERY NOTABLE RISES IN THE OVER 60s - A LITTLE MORE THAN THE DOUBLING THE RISE IN CASES OVER THE WEEK WOULD BRING BY STAYING AT THE SAME PERCENTAGE.

THE OVER 60s HAVE RISEN FROM UNDER 5% TO OVER 7% - RELATIVELY STILL LOW BUT A NOTABLE CHANGE.

UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS A REASON

CARE HOME OUTBREAKS HAVE MORE THAN DOUBLED OVER CHRISTMAS. FROM 44 TO 97

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 deaths - was 1 last week

4701 cases - was 3227 last week - highest ever here

31,643 weekly cases - MOST EVER - was 17,248 last week

97 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 44 LAST WEEK - BIGGEST RISE IN MANY MONTHS

303 patients - was 254 last week

24 ventilated - waa 26 last week

AS IN SCOTLAND AND IN ENGLAND SO FAR PATIENTS GOING UP BUT VENTILATORS EDGING DOWN SO FAR SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF MORE PATIENTS BUT LESS SEVERE ILLNESS BUT TOO EARLY TO BE ABSOLOUTEY SURE AS THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THESE THINGS

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Can see a lot of kids being off school next week!