COVID Data Thread

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS TODAY

177 with 40 North West - NO easy comparison but 2 weeks ago was 101 with 15 NW

Hard to know how much is impacted by the distortion created by catch up still over the long holidays. May be next week before we through this impact and can really tell.

But I think there is evidence that deaths are now clearly rising as cases are reaching older patients. Not yet at worrying numbers and certainly nothing like V last January. But noticeable uptick over past 2 weeks.

JAN 1 has 99 deaths at 5 days and the the three days following it are ALL in the 80s already - even 4 Jan after just 2 days on 81. This is the highest day 2 total in a very long time.

4 March was the last time it was higher.

If we are now rising at that stage of the then falling Winter wave we will not peak for another 6 weeks. Let us hope this time Omicron burns through faster.


REGIONS TODAY:- NW was the worst

East 9, London 32, Midlands 33, NE & Yorkshire 26, North West 40, Soith East 23, South West 14

Most by trust:

16 in London North West

NW Trusts:-

10 in Liverpool, 6 each in North Lancashire & Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), 3 each in Bolton & East Lancashire 2 each in Salford & Southport AND 1 each in Blackpool, Chester, Manchester, Mid Cheshire, Morecambe, St Helens, Stockport & Wigan.


By Age:-

20 - 39 (5) 40 - 59 (28), 60 - 79 (74), 80 PLUS (70)

You may not have the answer to this but what is the age profile of people dying now when compared to last year? Has it changed at all?

Just been looking at my town, Warrington.

5000 cases last week. In Summer last year it got as low as single figures!

 

[mackenzie]

Thanks for all your hard work Healdplace. Great info.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND REGIONAL CASES

Numbers back up today but not to their heights of two days ago,


REGION TODAY - UP/DOWN - V SEVEN DAYS AGO



NORTH WEST 25, 971 - UP from 19,756 V 23,952

North West jumps back up 6K which is the correction I supected we would see today as mentioned yesterday. But fairly flat V last week rather like London has been for more than a week after its big climb up - two weeks ago it was 14,759


LONDON 21,854 - DOWN from 22,558 V 24,320 - Still up and down a bit but not falling much and only slowly - two weeks ago it was 26,307

SOUTH EAST 19,946 - DOWN from 20,806 V 21,058 - slowly falling - two weeks ago was 16,618


WEST MIDLANDS 18,305 - UP from 18,006 V 15,967 - two weeks ago was 9921

YORKSHIRE 15,699 - UP from 15,127 V 12,553 - two weeks ago was 5947

EAST 15,245 - UP from 15,142 V 16,792 - two weeks ago was 13,091

EAST MIDLANDS 12,308 - DOWN from 14,331 V 12,411 - two weeks ago was 7944

SOUTH WEST 12,784 - UP from 10,993 V 10,570 - two weeks ago was 8058

NORTH EAST 9997 - UP from 9909 V 6251 - two weeks ago was 2795

 

[Healdplace]

You may not have the answer to this but what is the age profile of people dying now when compared to last year? Has it changed at all?

Just been looking at my town, Warrington.

5000 cases last week. In Summer last year it got as low as single figures!

If you look at the England hospital deaths in here every afternoon I post that days total by the age bands given.

It has not changed a huge amount in terms of the split - tiny numbers with the under 40s, modest numbers 40 - 59 and much higher over 60.

That patterm is the impact of Covid on co morbidities obviously more likely to exist the older you are.

So not likely to change.

Hwever, the size of the numbers have changed so the large older age numbers have fallen the most as the vaccines have had most impact here.

But in reality it is just less of the same pattern and likely to always be that way.

 

[Healdplace]

GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY



TOTAL 9180

UP by 2150 from 7030 yesterday


NW Total 25,971

UP by 6215 from 19, 756 yesterday


GM 35.3% of the NW total today. Down from 35.6% yesterday - both well down from over 40% last week.

The epicentre of the NW outbreak which for much of Christmas centred on GM has started to shift as North Lancashire, East Lancashire. Merseyside, the Fylde coast and Cheshire have all seen rises.

Week to week GM has actually fallen by 413 whilst the NW has risen by 2019 Showing that the last two days where GM had surprising falls may be real and is a redistribution of cases over a now wider area.

The GM fall week to week is from 40% to 35.3% of the total.

MIght change again but that is how it looks right now.





MANCHESTER 1541 - UP 312 on day & DOWN 542 on week - Pop Score 277 (POP 24,803)

WIGAN 1178 - UP 244 on day & DOWN 96 on week - Pop Score 356 Will join the 25 K club tomorrow. (POP 24,939)

SALFORD 950 - UP 226 on day & DOWN 62 on week - Pop Score 362 and takes it into the 26 K club - first in GM and after just 48 hours in the 25 K club! (POP 26,017) HighestPop Score across the pandemic

ROCHDALE 877 - UP 394 on day & UP 86 on week. Pop Score 393 * (POP 24,807) * Highest pop score in GM today

OLDHAM 853 - UP 380 on day & UP 122 on week - Pop Score 360. (POP 24,367)

STOCKPORT 813 - DOWN 128 on day & 277 on week - Pop Score 276* to enter the 24K club. The only borough to fall both on the day and week to week gaining more points back on Bolton. And amazingly 276 is the LOWEST Pop Score today by 1 from Manchester. First time in Stockport in a while. (POP 24,178)

BOLTON 811 - UP 253 on day & UP 47 on week - Pop Score 282 to enter the 23 K club as the only occupant (POP 23,201) * Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - But lost 6 to Stockport today to go back to 'just' 977 ahead!

TAMESIDE 803 - UP 155 on day & DOWN 31 on week. Pop Score 353 (POP 24,758)

TRAFFORD 755 - UP 143 on day & EXACTLY THE SAME AS LAST WEEK will enter the 25K club tomorrow - Pop Score 317 (POP 24,940)

BURY 599 UP 161 on day & UP 11 on week. Pop Score 314 (POP 24,625)

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

21 deaths - was 11 last week - more signs of these rising

7915 cases - was 10,393 - but also more signs of a slowing of cases

29% positivity - was 36% last week - which shows it is not just fewer tests but a real fall

702 patients - was 531 last week

40 ventilated - was 33 last week - Need to see how this develops as the hospital numbers are both rising

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Headline:- Unfortunately it now seems clear deaths ARE rising quite signifcantly and I think Christmas lag cannot easily now be considered why. The last few days have seen a VERY sigificant increase. And deaths have escalted to noticeably higher levels and are now at the point they last were day to day on 4 March. I was hoping this was holiday registration lag. But the longer it goes on the less likely that seems.

161 with 32 from the NW - Last week 118 with 21 NW and week before 106 with 22 NW

By Region:-

East 28, London 36, Midlands 28, NE & Yorkshire 14, North West 32, South East 13, South West 10


Most by trust:

Mid & South Essex 9


NW Trusts:

8 in Manchester, 4 in Liverpool, 3 each in Chester, St Helens & Southport, 2 each in Mid Cheshire & Salford AND 1 each in Blackpool, East Cheshire, East Lancashire, Morecambe, Stockport & the Wirral. There was also 1 in Christie's Manchester.

By Age:

20 - 39 (2),40 - 59 (15), 60 - 79 (60), 80 PLUS (84)


THE MAIN REASON FOR CONCERN ARE THE VERY HIGH NUMBERS IN THE PAST WEEK WHICH ARE CREEPING WELL ABOVE ANY WEEK FOR MONTHS

Jan 5 - two days ago -is already at 92 deaths - the highest in over 10 months at that point.

Jan 4 - three days ago - is at 108 - even worse and the highest at that point since 25 February 2021 - the tail end of last winters huge wave.

There had been no 100 or over deaths below the 5th day since early November 2021 up until 28 December and there are now 3 already and with 5 Jan as shown above so hgh after 1 day that will probably become the highest yet.

These are mostly deaths probably from the lower numbers up to 2 weeks ago and before Omicron dominated and the older ages started catching that over Christmas.

SO WE DO NOT KNOW IF THESE ARE MAINLY DELTA DEATHS IN OLDER PEOPLE EXACERBATED BY WINTER AND OMICRON's RECENT DOMINANCE AND LOWER THREAT WILL LESSEN RATHER THAM INCREASE THEM. BUT WE WILL SOON FIND OUT

WE NEED TO WATCH THE DEATH NUMBERS VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

15 deaths - was 13 last week

14,486 cases - was 11,962 last week

21.7% positivity - was 22.6% last week - THIS IS GOOD NEWS - MANY MORE TESTS WERE DONE TODAY HENCE THE FALL WITH HIGHER CASES

1323 patients - was 1267 yesterday & 859 last week - More than a 50% rise in patients in 7 days is one way of looking at it.

Another is a net 464 added from over 108,000 cases in those 7 days. About 0.4% hospitalised and 99.6% not.

48 ventilated - was 43 yesterday & 36 last week

However, this may be starting to show a rise in these numbers if more older patients are catching Omicron now. Hopefully not.

The scottish care home data would be very significant given what is happening here in Northern Ireland (sww below). As these are where the most vulnerable are likely to be.

HERE IS THE LATEST ON THIS FROM SCOTLAND

• as at 5 January 2022, 251 (24%) adult care homes had a current case of suspected COVID-19
• in the week 27 December 2021 to 2 January 2022 there were 612 new confirmed positive COVID‑19 cases among care home residents and 1,098 among care home staff
• as of 2 January 2022, there have been 13,017 confirmed cases of COVID-19 amongst residents and 10,168 amongst staff of care homes for all ages since 9 March 2020
  
  NOTE THE KEY HERE - 10% of ALL STAFF CASES WITH COVID ACRSS THE ENTIRE PANDEMIC IN CARE HOMES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST WEEK!!! AND 5% OF ALL CARE HOME RESIDENTS TOO.
  
  

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

0 deaths - was 1 last week

6444 cases - was 7215 last week

47,723 weekly cases - was 49,270 yesterday & 35,107 last week - slowing a bit here

190 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 179 YESTERDAY & 112 LAST WEEK - STILL GOING UP WORRYINGLY GIVEN THE SCOTLAND DATA ABOVE TOO

402 patients - was 404 yesterday & 391 last week

26 ventilated - was 24 yesterday & 25 last week

But this is so far holding up very well considering.

So all in all things look to be doing OK but we need to watch how those care home residents react to Omicron.

 

[Healdplace]

HERE IS THE LATEST TREE GRAPH OF THE PAST WEEK CASES IN NORTHERN IRELAND.

YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THE IMPACT OF THE CARE HOME OUTBREAK RISES AS THE OVER 80s ARE STARTING TO GROW

AT !.1% IT WAS ABOUT A THIRD OF THAT LEVEL JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS. STILL HAPPILY LOW BUT IN A CARE HOME OMICRON WILL SPREAD LIKE FURY I FEAR

AND THE OVER 60s - WHICH WERE AT UNDER 5% BEFORE OMICRON PRE CHRISTMAS ARE NOW 9%.

THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW THE LEVEL IT WAS AT IN THE JANUARY 2021 WAVE. PRE VACC(NES. UNDER HALF. BUT IT HAS RISEN MARKEDLY IN JUST THE COUPLE OF WEEKS HOLIDAY PERIOD