COVID Data Thread

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Anything we can do....

US is the first nation to record over ONE MILLION cases on one day - 1,080,211

Glad I am not working out THOSE numbers!

Wonder how many were in Evanston, Illinois where I (briefly) lived long ago.

Population about 6 times as big as ours suggests they’re not far from where we are. Their ICU admissions are a massive outlier though, which looks a bit odd.

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

10 deaths - was 2 last week

21,279 cases - was 5929 last week

26% positivity - was 16% last week

531 patients (latest as of Saturday) - was 454 last week

33 ventilated (as of Saturday) - was 32 last week

Cases rocketting up, patients rising moderately, but ventilators not by much.

Same pattern as rest of UK

 

[shemnel]

The BBC has a feature on real problems in Nth Lancashire and Cumbria hospitals due to record case numbers.

It refers to data in December as they use the 5 day old numbers. Claiming 2000 cases a day in Cumbria.

So I looked at the data and they have certainly gone up but not I think as badly as they have in other places like Stockport (that the media totally ignored for weeks when it was at record highs) and currenty both Bolton and Wigan that have accelerated a lot in past few days as Sockport has levelled off.

Just pre Christmas Cumbria had 500 cases. On Christmas Eve 900. It then rose daily 1300, 1500, 1800 to top out at 2200. But has fallen back since to 1300. So yes it is up but I would not have thought unusually so.

Using cases like this is not really the way to go now anyhow - especially depending on older figures as it misses the current trend in a very fast moving wave.

I will be very surprised if almost everywhere in the North West is not showing a similar pattern to the above. Most of Greater Manchester and Merseyside certainly has.

What it does flag up though is small rural areas with limited hospital capacity are likely to be the ones under the most strain as they often are isolated by some distance from other health areas of any size that could share the load.

We will be seeing a lot of that as this wave spreads. Lincolnshire was flagged up the other day as in crisis. There will be others coming.

The main trust you refer to, which has been on the BBC and a lot on local news, is the Morecambe Bay Trust, which is Lancaster, Kendal & Barrow.

Just anecdotally, I have a minor day surgery operation in one of those hospitals on Monday, and it has not been cancelled (yet). In fact i was only put forward for surgery for the first time in early December, had to fight them not to have it the same week, arranged it for mid Jan and had it brought forward to the 10th Jan only a few days ago. I was told there is zero waiting list for minor orthopedic procedures at the moment (in that trust). The load on hospitals is not uniform within the hospital, the trust, the region or the country!

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

THESE COVER 5 DAYS OVER THE HOLIDAYS 1 - 5 JANUARY


TOTAL: - 372 WITH 66 FROM NORTH WEST.

NOT REALLY POSSIBLE TO COMPARE WITH LAST WEEK AS THERE WERE ZERO REPORTS ON 25 & 26 DEC AND A BIG CATCH UP NUMBER (317) ON 30 DEC OUTSIDE THE COMPARISON PERIOD.

BUT IT WAS 196 PLUS WHATEVER SHARE OF THAT 317 WOULD HAVE IN A NORMAL WEEK BEEN REPORTED EARLIER.

AN EASIER COMPARISON IS FOR THE 5 DAYS IN THE TWO 'NORMAL' WEEKS BEFORE

THESE WERE (18 - 22 DEC) AND (11 - 15 DEC)

THOSE NUMBERS WERE 388 WITH 54 NORTH WEST & 378 WITH 60 NORTH WEST


As you can see THE most notable thing is deaths being pretty flat but with the contribution from the North West going up.

There is certainly no dramatic rise in deaths visible since Omicron arrived. Though 28 December does have 101 deaths and was at that point at 5 days - though how much that was impacted by catch up and abnormal reporting patterns (as it is still 101 now three days on) is tough to call.


The last few days though do show the hint of an increase and all the as yet uncompleted totals for Jan 1 onward ARE above last week a little.

So I suspect a rise in coming weeks is inevitable and just how much of one is the only question when cases filter through. As of now it is not dramatic. But that could change.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS IN DETAIL ACROSS ALL DATES :- 1 - 5 JANUARY


By Region:

East 42, London 75. Midlands 61, NE & Yorkshire 43, North West 66, South East 59, South West 26


Most by trust:

13 Barking, Mid & South Essex 12


NORTH WEST TRUSTS:-

11 in Manchester, 10 in Liverpool, 9 in Wigan, 7 in Bolton, 6 in Mid Cheshire. 4 each in Salford & Warrington, 3 in Tameside, 2 each in East Lancashire, Morecambe, Pennine Acute, St Helens & Stockport AND 1 each in Southport & Wirral


By Age:-

0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (13), 40 - 59 (37), 60 - 79 (141), 80 PLUS (180)

 

[kaz7]

The figure for the week ending 31 December was up from 2.3 million in the week to 23 December. It marked the highest number since comparable figures began in autumn 2020.

COVID-19: Estimated 3.7 million people in UK had coronavirus in week ending 31 December, says ONS

An estimated one in 15 people in England had COVID in the week up to 31 December - the equivalent to 3,270,800 people. In Scotland and Wales, an estimated one in 20 people had the virus, while in Northern Ireland the figure was one in 25.

news.sky.com

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

5 deaths - was 3 last week

16,103 cases - was 15,849 last week

26,9% positivity - was 28.9% last week

1223 patients - was 1147 yesterday & 679 last week

42 ventilated icu - was 42 yesterday & 36 last week


Local experts suggesting there are signs the cases in Scotland may be peaking.

Patients near dobled in a week but ventilated up by 16% only - much as we have seen in England.

 

[Healdplace]

334 all settings deaths

316 in England - was 38 last week - but VERY misleading as explained in the England Hospital data earlier - 5 days data is included. So not a straight comparison

Hope the media notice

194,747 cases

150,232 in England - up 1507 on yesterday's 148,725 & up 11,945 on last week's 138,287

Certainly not jumping up a lot now. We my be approaching the ceiling hopefully.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND CASES BY AGE TODAY FROM THE 50,250 OVER PAST 7 DAYS

THE OVER 60s ARE CREEPING UP AND THE OVER 80s HAVE QUADRUPLED OVER CHRISTMAS.

THE REASON IS OBVIOUS AS I HAVE BEEN POSTING HERE OVER PAST FEW DAYS> THE CARE HOME OUTBREAK IS RAPIDLY SPREADING - PRESUMABLY FROM FAMILY VISITS OVER THE PAST FORTNIGHT.

STILL THE LOWEST TWO GROUPS BUT AS A PERCENTAGE ARE WELL UP ON WHERE THEY WERE - FROM BELOW 5% to APPROACHING 9% IN TWO WEEKS.

THE GENERATIONL MIXING OF THE HOLIDAYS WAS ALWAYS GOING TO TEST HOW OMICRON BEHAVES IN THE OLDER MORE VULNERABLE AGES. HOPEFULLY IT HOLDS UP BUT WE ARE ABOUT TO FIND OUT FOR SURE.

AND IS THIS SAME PATTERN HAPPENING IN THE OTHER THREE NATIONS TOO - As WE ONLY HAVE NI PROVIDING GOOD DATA ON THIS DAY TO DAY?

 

[BlueAnorak]

New Year & Bank Holiday deaths catch up day it would appear