COVID Data Thread

[Healdplace]

New Year & Bank Holiday deaths catch up day it would appear

In essence, yes.

See my post earlier this afternoon about the England hospital deaths as to why they are what the are.

There were several days catch up from England . Always the biggest number when that happens.

The deaths trend IS slightly up though over past 2 weeks as that post earlier also explains. But only very modestly. And not close to reflecting the cases or even the increase in patients over the period.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND REGIONAL CASES

Numbers in the North West way down and a bit puzzling. After 8 of the 10 boroughs over 1000 yesterday only Manchester was today. Not sure what is happenning.


REGION TODAY - UP/DOWN - V SEVEN DAYS AGO





LONDON 22,558 - UP from 21,527 V 22,727 - Back on top and very flat still not really falling at all

SOUTH EAST 20,806 - UP from 18,532 V 19, 849 - Also back over NW and pretty flat over the week




NORTH WEST 19,756 - DOWN from 29,360 V 23,842

North West has very surprising 10K fall to be even well down on last week. Hard to trust these numbers tbh. Might be a big correction tomorrow.


WEST MIDLANDS 18,006 - UP from 13,520 V 12,927 - highest ever total here

EAST 15,142 - DOWN from 15,163 V 16,995 - another down week to week

YORKSHIRE 15,127 - UP from 14,590 V 13,345 - creeping up just as Zoe predicts

EAST MIDLANDS 14,331 - UP from 13,175 V 11,721

SOUTH WEST 10,99 - DOWN from 11, 770 V 10,227

NORTH EAST 9909 - DOWN from 10,252 V 5247

 

[Healdplace]

GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY



TOTAL 7030

DOWN by 5048 from 12,078 yesterday

A very unexpected large drop that puts in question either yesterday's very hgh data or today's numbers they are so far apart. Those 500 Pop Scores looked very suspiciously high just as some tday look suspiciously low and I suspect this is simply the course correction on those way too high numbers and tomorow will see GM back up around 24/25K where it likely was all 3 days but for testing vagaries.

NW Total 19,756

DOWN from 29, 360 yesterday by 9604


GM 35.6% of the NW total today. Well below the 41% of recent days

Week to week NW was down 4196 & Greater Manchester was down by 2545 of that which is 60.7% of that fall. Well over expectation.




NO RECORDS SET TODAY - AFTER 8 OF THE 10 BOROUGHS OVER 1000 YESTERDAY - TODAY JUST MANCHESTER.




MANCHESTER 1229 - DOWN 587 on day & 854 on week - Pop Score 222 (POP 24,526)

WIGAN 934 - DOWN 231 on day & 301 on week - Pop Score 283 (POP 24,583

STOCKPORT 931 - DOWN 299 on day & 256 on week - Pop Score 316 (POP 23,902) fell less than most and topped it with the only Pop Score over 300 today and so top scored. Lost huge numbers back to Bolton too. Will be in the 24K club tomorrow with most of GM.

SALFORD 724 - DOWN 614 on day & 219 on week - Pop Score 276 (POP 25,655) Highest pop score in GM across the pandemic.

TAMESIDE 648 - DOWN 521 on day & UP 551 on week. Pop Score 286 (POP 24,405)

TRAFFORD 612 - DOWN 239 on day & DOWN 210 on week - Pop Score 258 (POP 24,623) Better day here - lowest score in GM but highest ever lowest score!

BOLTON 558 - DOWN 716 on day & 16 on week - Pop Score 193 *- POP 22,919) * Lowest Pop Score in GM both today and across the pandemic - TOOK BACK 123 from Stockport today to go back to 983 ahead! Something was wrong in either Bolton too high or Stockport too low on the numbers over recent days.As those 100 Pop Score gains by SK for 3 days looked well dodgy.

ROCHDALE 483 - DOWN 492 on day & 186 on week. Pop Score 216 (POP 24,414)

OLDHAM 473 - DOWN 712 on day & 291 on week - Pop Score 198. Just enough to enter the 24K club - at just 105 ahead could actually take over from Stockport as the challenger to Bolton for lowest Pop Score across the pandemic as early as tomorrow after not that long ago fighting Rochdale for being the highest! (POP 24,007)

BURY 438 DOWN 627 on day & DOWN 90 on week. Pop Score 230 (POP 24,311)

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland numbers today over past 7 days. 0 - 19 up nearly 100 all the rest down.

Total for week down by 980 to 49,270

 

[Healdplace]

Sorry, had a busy day.

Quick UK numbers: (v last wk in brackets)

SCOTLAND 18 deaths (9) // 11,360 cases (16,857) // 23.1% positivity (27.1%) // 1267 patients (810) // 43 ventilated (34)


N IRELAND 4 deaths (3) // 6877 cases (4701) // 49,270 weekly cases (31,643) // 179 care home outbreaks (97) // 404 patients (303) // 24 ventilated (26)


WALES 6 deaths (3) // 9213 cases (21,051) // 702 patients (509) // 40 ventilated (35)

 

[Healdplace]

UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS TODAY


PATIENTS & VENTILATORS



ENGLAND 16,058 & 762 (Up 399 & Down 7) AND 762 (Down 7)



UK TOTAL 18,431 (up today by 469) AND 869 (Down today by 2)

 

[mackenzie]

GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY



TOTAL 7030

DOWN by 5048 from 12,078 yesterday

A very unexpected large drop that puts in question either yesterday's very hgh data or today's numbers they are so far apart. Those 500 Pop Scores looked very suspiciously high just as some tday look suspiciously low and I suspect this is simply the course correction on those way too high numbers and tomorow will see GM back up around 24/25K where it likely was all 3 days but for testing vagaries.

NW Total 19,756

DOWN from 29, 360 yesterday by 9604


GM 35.6% of the NW total today. Well below the 41% of recent days

Week to week NW was down 4196 & Greater Manchester was down by 2545 of that which is 60.7% of that fall. Well over expectation.




NO RECORDS SET TODAY - AFTER 8 OF THE 10 BOROUGHS OVER 1000 YESTERDAY - TODAY JUST MANCHESTER.




MANCHESTER 1229 - DOWN 587 on day & 854 on week - Pop Score 222 (POP 24,526)

WIGAN 934 - DOWN 231 on day & 301 on week - Pop Score 283 (POP 24,583

STOCKPORT 931 - DOWN 299 on day & 256 on week - Pop Score 316 (POP 23,902) fell less than most and topped it with the only Pop Score over 300 today and so top scored. Lost huge numbers back to Bolton too. Will be in the 24K club tomorrow with most of GM.

SALFORD 724 - DOWN 614 on day & 219 on week - Pop Score 276 (POP 25,655) Highest pop score in GM across the pandemic.

TAMESIDE 648 - DOWN 521 on day & UP 551 on week. Pop Score 286 (POP 24,405)

TRAFFORD 612 - DOWN 239 on day & DOWN 210 on week - Pop Score 258 (POP 24,623) Better day here - lowest score in GM but highest ever lowest score!

BOLTON 558 - DOWN 716 on day & 16 on week - Pop Score 193 *- POP 22,919) * Lowest Pop Score in GM both today and across the pandemic - TOOK BACK 123 from Stockport today to go back to 983 ahead! Something was wrong in either Bolton too high or Stockport too low on the numbers over recent days.As those 100 Pop Score gains by SK for 3 days looked well dodgy.

ROCHDALE 483 - DOWN 492 on day & 186 on week. Pop Score 216 (POP 24,414)

OLDHAM 473 - DOWN 712 on day & 291 on week - Pop Score 198. Just enough to enter the 24K club - at just 105 ahead could actually take over from Stockport as the challenger to Bolton for lowest Pop Score across the pandemic as early as tomorrow after not that long ago fighting Rochdale for being the highest! (POP 24,007)

BURY 438 DOWN 627 on day & DOWN 90 on week. Pop Score 230 (POP 24,311)

Can only speak from my own experience obviously, but my job involves working with the public in Oldham and it has absolutely ripped through the community here in the last week or so.

 

[Healdplace]

Can only speak from my own experience obviously, but my job involves working with the public in Oldham and it has absolutely ripped through the community here in the last week or so.

Thank you. Todays numbers confirm that a bout Oldham. But not alone. GM is Covid central right now. Running a bit behind today as been busy with work. But am catching up.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS TODAY

177 with 40 North West - NO easy comparison but 2 weeks ago was 101 with 15 NW

Hard to know how much is impacted by the distortion created by catch up still over the long holidays. May be next week before we through this impact and can really tell.

But I think there is evidence that deaths are now clearly rising as cases are reaching older patients. Not yet at worrying numbers and certainly nothing like V last January. But noticeable uptick over past 2 weeks.

JAN 1 has 99 deaths at 5 days and the the three days following it are ALL in the 80s already - even 4 Jan after just 2 days on 81. This is the highest day 2 total in a very long time.

4 March was the last time it was higher.

If we are now rising at that stage of the then falling Winter wave we will not peak for another 6 weeks. Let us hope this time Omicron burns through faster.


REGIONS TODAY:- NW was the worst

East 9, London 32, Midlands 33, NE & Yorkshire 26, North West 40, Soith East 23, South West 14

Most by trust:

16 in London North West

NW Trusts:-

10 in Liverpool, 6 each in North Lancashire & Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), 3 each in Bolton & East Lancashire 2 each in Salford & Southport AND 1 each in Blackpool, Chester, Manchester, Mid Cheshire, Morecambe, St Helens, Stockport & Wigan.


By Age:-

20 - 39 (5) 40 - 59 (28), 60 - 79 (74), 80 PLUS (70)

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS


HERE IS THE WEEKLY DAY TO DAY TOTALS AT 5 DAYS FOR THE LATEST WEEK (26 DEC - 01 JAN)


76 - 81 - 101 - 55 - 42 - 57 - 99 = TOTAL OF 511

The previous week total was 433 and the week before 508 - though the first one was low due to Christmas and was likel nearer 480 +

Of the next week which will not be complete yet for another 7 days the total is already at this VERY early stage on 282.

For comoparison the exact same days at this point for that week which eded on 508 total just before Christmas stood at this point on 199 (V that 282) - so unless things change the coming week is on course for at least 600 I would say.That would be the highest in 8 weeks.