In Scotland it appears that over the last couple of weeks cases have been falling in the under 25's and increasing in the over 45's which may be why hospital cases are rising whilst the overall number of cases has been fairly level.
COVID Data Thread
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Healdplace
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Thank you - much the same is happening in Northern Ireland if you follw my reports here over the past week or so. I have been posting the rather steady increase in the split over recent weeks which has gone from 44% school age V 6% over 60 to less than half the school age numbers now and over double the over 60s now. But the over 60s are still smallish numbers in total.
However, the biggest rise in Northern Ireland is in the middle ages 20 - 59. Notably at the higher end of that.
Possibly these are the age groups most opening up as we get back to normal. So more prone to catching it.
Hospital numbers in Scotland and N Ireland are rising a bit BUT crucially ventilated icu are staying very low.
blue b4 the moon
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Just seen this whilst looking at global figures ...
Healdplace
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The above is based on a few day old data as always.But is in effect the POP scores that I refer to so often when I used to post lots of data here daily for the ten GM boroughs if you recall - the only difference being they use several day old data to be precisely accurate given how the cases come in over several days from testing labs and I update them day to day as they go. Though that impact is less now than it used to be.
But they are often much the same just the ones I post a little more quick at seeing changing trends and where a problem might be brewing before it has alreadybrewed,
I willtonight post the GM numbers one more time. It will likely not be very different from the above (as is not the one from last night as I have kept that up to date but just not posted - but it will be from today not last weekend.
Stockport - as I have mentioned for weeks in here when I was posting the data - has been the biggest issue in GM throughout Omicron and it is a very interesting question to wonder why. They have the best vaccination numbers in GM easily and have since day one and DID pre Omicron have the best cummultive Pop Score across the entire pandemic. Thes two going hand in hand making sense.
But Omicron changed that too and Bolton took the lead and in the next couple of days Oldham will ovettake Stockport and be the one chasing Bolton - though both Oldham and Stockport are well behind Bolton and unlikely to catch it unless things change a lot.
Recall that Bolton was the first place in the UK to have the previous variant and was the national focus of the Summer wave. It DID go wild with Omicro like the rest of GM but it fell moee quickly and has gone from worst in the 10 boroughs under the last variant to being easily the best under Omicron.
Though in the past week Oldhm has suddenly got muc better from higher levels and is catching up as you see Oldham & Bolton are swapping places as top of the weekly Pop Score chart - but Bolton is well ahead of Oldham on the overall numbers across the entire pandemic. Indeed Oldham is still JUST behind Stockport on those.
Stockport having had the best numbers up until Omicron must play the same way and involve potential levels of infection by new variants I would imagine.
I also suspect the high school age population was a factor. There is a lot in Stockport and their lead in being immunised mattered less as most were unvaccinated. Hence the sudden rise that they are only alowly getting under control.
People kept posting things like - who cares about Stockprt being some numbers ahead or behind X, Y or Z.
So I stopped doing it as they obviously did not understand the reasoning - ut as you see it is a key guide to the dynamics of how outbreaks are growing and spreading and why places flare or d not flare as cases ebb and flow.
But they are often much the same just the ones I post a little more quick at seeing changing trends and where a problem might be brewing before it has alreadybrewed,
I willtonight post the GM numbers one more time. It will likely not be very different from the above (as is not the one from last night as I have kept that up to date but just not posted - but it will be from today not last weekend.
Stockport - as I have mentioned for weeks in here when I was posting the data - has been the biggest issue in GM throughout Omicron and it is a very interesting question to wonder why. They have the best vaccination numbers in GM easily and have since day one and DID pre Omicron have the best cummultive Pop Score across the entire pandemic. Thes two going hand in hand making sense.
But Omicron changed that too and Bolton took the lead and in the next couple of days Oldham will ovettake Stockport and be the one chasing Bolton - though both Oldham and Stockport are well behind Bolton and unlikely to catch it unless things change a lot.
Recall that Bolton was the first place in the UK to have the previous variant and was the national focus of the Summer wave. It DID go wild with Omicro like the rest of GM but it fell moee quickly and has gone from worst in the 10 boroughs under the last variant to being easily the best under Omicron.
Though in the past week Oldhm has suddenly got muc better from higher levels and is catching up as you see Oldham & Bolton are swapping places as top of the weekly Pop Score chart - but Bolton is well ahead of Oldham on the overall numbers across the entire pandemic. Indeed Oldham is still JUST behind Stockport on those.
Stockport having had the best numbers up until Omicron must play the same way and involve potential levels of infection by new variants I would imagine.
I also suspect the high school age population was a factor. There is a lot in Stockport and their lead in being immunised mattered less as most were unvaccinated. Hence the sudden rise that they are only alowly getting under control.
People kept posting things like - who cares about Stockprt being some numbers ahead or behind X, Y or Z.
So I stopped doing it as they obviously did not understand the reasoning - ut as you see it is a key guide to the dynamics of how outbreaks are growing and spreading and why places flare or d not flare as cases ebb and flow.
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Healdplace
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Stockport last night almost had more cases than Manchester (136 - up week to week from 123) V (in Manchester) 168 - down from 229 last week.
Every other GM borough was under 100, Indeed Salford on just 82 was the next highest. Rochdale on 39 the lowest
GM as a whole right now has flattened in total case numbers per day but is still down week to week - last night 851 V 1088 last Monday. GM has been under 1000 a day for 5 straight days now. After at the heght of Omicron being over 12,000!
Preston actually has the worst numbers in the UK as of last night on Zoe - a gigantic Zoe score of 155,796. I have never seen one anywhere higher.
By comparison Manchester is the worst in GM (and rising) on 44,534.
Stockport on Zoe has fallen like a brick in recent weeks but now stalled as have most of GM (a few others like Manchester are rising in past few days since we have opened up)
Stockport is 21,565 on Zoe right now. Only Bolton, Oldham & Rochdale are lower. Bolton has the lowest GM numbers on Zoe in GM on 13,719.
These are similar patterns with the Pop Scores order, understandably of course - though Stockport sticks out as the exception - doing well on Zoe and worst of all ten on overall cases. So more cases reported va Zoe must be getting picked up by official testing in Stockport than elsewhere I assume. Suggesting it is age range testing that is a factor here.
Zoe uses more real time reporting of ongoing cases whereas Pop Scores are basically just a tally of positive tests in recent days. That can change the pictire bit too. As can age range testing altering as is clearly occurring with most children having had Omicron and a few more testing positive now being in older age ranges - this being a UK wde patterm emering in past week or two.
So these numbers are offering differing measures but Zoe can anticipate what will hapen in real data beng more real time than the Gov UK data that creates the chart posted above.
But the two things to really recall is more testing = more cases - so numbers are higher than they were when we were not testing everyone often - and this is now inevitably going to drop off meaning fewer cases whether there actually are fewer or not.
AND - as importantly - cases mean far less now anyway - the hospital data - the only thing I keep posting daily - is key - especially the icu ventilator numbers - as however many cases there are in GM is of much less importance now than how many translate into hospital stays - for how long - and how many of those get ventilated and may die.
ALL of those metrics have shifted massively in the pas few weeks so it is indeed true that there is no point in posting daily how many cases are in Stockport today or who is doing slightly better or worse.
Aside for the gudance it gives as noted above.
Anyhow the current GM 10 borough Pop Scores are below V last week and 4 weeks ago.
I will not post these daily as I have not been doing as they have less moment than they usd to do and can infer some areas are doing well or badly when it is not that simple any more.
THE key stat in the chart posted above is the comparison between even the highest in GM V the England average total.
GM right now in the Zoe ongoing cases data - along with the North West - is one of the best regions out of the 12 in UK - 9th out of the 12 and 7th out of the 9 in England. Only North East & Yorkshire are lower, THAT is what really matters
Every other GM borough was under 100, Indeed Salford on just 82 was the next highest. Rochdale on 39 the lowest
GM as a whole right now has flattened in total case numbers per day but is still down week to week - last night 851 V 1088 last Monday. GM has been under 1000 a day for 5 straight days now. After at the heght of Omicron being over 12,000!
Preston actually has the worst numbers in the UK as of last night on Zoe - a gigantic Zoe score of 155,796. I have never seen one anywhere higher.
By comparison Manchester is the worst in GM (and rising) on 44,534.
Stockport on Zoe has fallen like a brick in recent weeks but now stalled as have most of GM (a few others like Manchester are rising in past few days since we have opened up)
Stockport is 21,565 on Zoe right now. Only Bolton, Oldham & Rochdale are lower. Bolton has the lowest GM numbers on Zoe in GM on 13,719.
These are similar patterns with the Pop Scores order, understandably of course - though Stockport sticks out as the exception - doing well on Zoe and worst of all ten on overall cases. So more cases reported va Zoe must be getting picked up by official testing in Stockport than elsewhere I assume. Suggesting it is age range testing that is a factor here.
Zoe uses more real time reporting of ongoing cases whereas Pop Scores are basically just a tally of positive tests in recent days. That can change the pictire bit too. As can age range testing altering as is clearly occurring with most children having had Omicron and a few more testing positive now being in older age ranges - this being a UK wde patterm emering in past week or two.
So these numbers are offering differing measures but Zoe can anticipate what will hapen in real data beng more real time than the Gov UK data that creates the chart posted above.
But the two things to really recall is more testing = more cases - so numbers are higher than they were when we were not testing everyone often - and this is now inevitably going to drop off meaning fewer cases whether there actually are fewer or not.
AND - as importantly - cases mean far less now anyway - the hospital data - the only thing I keep posting daily - is key - especially the icu ventilator numbers - as however many cases there are in GM is of much less importance now than how many translate into hospital stays - for how long - and how many of those get ventilated and may die.
ALL of those metrics have shifted massively in the pas few weeks so it is indeed true that there is no point in posting daily how many cases are in Stockport today or who is doing slightly better or worse.
Aside for the gudance it gives as noted above.
Anyhow the current GM 10 borough Pop Scores are below V last week and 4 weeks ago.
I will not post these daily as I have not been doing as they have less moment than they usd to do and can infer some areas are doing well or badly when it is not that simple any more.
THE key stat in the chart posted above is the comparison between even the highest in GM V the England average total.
GM right now in the Zoe ongoing cases data - along with the North West - is one of the best regions out of the 12 in UK - 9th out of the 12 and 7th out of the 9 in England. Only North East & Yorkshire are lower, THAT is what really matters
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Healdplace
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164 all settings deaths - was 199 last week
Wales had 5 V 8 last week, N Ireland 4 V 5 last week & Scotland 15 V 16 last week
140 England only - was 170 last week
116 in England hospitals 12 of them in the North West - was 122 with 19 NW last week
39,656 cases - was 41.130 yeserday & 54,218 last week
Wales had 903 V 1124 last week, N Ireland 2294 V 2889 last week & Scotland 6756 V 7449 last week
29,703 in England - was 30,080 yeserday & 42,756 last week
Wales had 5 V 8 last week, N Ireland 4 V 5 last week & Scotland 15 V 16 last week
140 England only - was 170 last week
116 in England hospitals 12 of them in the North West - was 122 with 19 NW last week
39,656 cases - was 41.130 yeserday & 54,218 last week
Wales had 903 V 1124 last week, N Ireland 2294 V 2889 last week & Scotland 6756 V 7449 last week
29,703 in England - was 30,080 yeserday & 42,756 last week
Healdplace
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England Hospital Numbers
Happily another Wednesday fall but more modest than last week
Admissions (Monday)
These topped 1000 for first time in 5 days and unsurprising as Monday is always the biggest day for adding patients - but numbres are down week to week.
1030 V 1132 previous week & 1234 week before then.
North West - was like all the big regions down on last week 153 V 163 last week & 194 week before
Patients (today)
8868
That is a fall on yesterday of 80 from 8948 V last week 9804 - which saw a fall of 215
So a bit of a slowdown but still a week to week fall of 936.
East down 23 to 889, London down 33 to 1776, Midlands down 19 to 1657, NE & Yorkshire down 37 to 1361, South East IS the only one to go UP - 47 to 1188, South West down just 1 to 696
AND North West down only 14 to 1301 (V 1437 last Wednesday when it fell 50)
Ventilators (today)
278 - down 6 V 326 last week when it ROSE by 3 on the day
East down 1 to 31, London down 3 to 98, Midlands UP 2 to 36, NE & Yorkshire down 1 to 41,
South East UP 3 to 24 , South West stays at 16
AND North West - down 6 - the most today to 32 (V 41 last week)
THIS IS THE LOWEST NUMBER ON VENTILATORS IN THE NORTH WEST SINCE 4 JUNE
Happily another Wednesday fall but more modest than last week
Admissions (Monday)
These topped 1000 for first time in 5 days and unsurprising as Monday is always the biggest day for adding patients - but numbres are down week to week.
1030 V 1132 previous week & 1234 week before then.
North West - was like all the big regions down on last week 153 V 163 last week & 194 week before
Patients (today)
8868
That is a fall on yesterday of 80 from 8948 V last week 9804 - which saw a fall of 215
So a bit of a slowdown but still a week to week fall of 936.
East down 23 to 889, London down 33 to 1776, Midlands down 19 to 1657, NE & Yorkshire down 37 to 1361, South East IS the only one to go UP - 47 to 1188, South West down just 1 to 696
AND North West down only 14 to 1301 (V 1437 last Wednesday when it fell 50)
Ventilators (today)
278 - down 6 V 326 last week when it ROSE by 3 on the day
East down 1 to 31, London down 3 to 98, Midlands UP 2 to 36, NE & Yorkshire down 1 to 41,
South East UP 3 to 24 , South West stays at 16
AND North West - down 6 - the most today to 32 (V 41 last week)
THIS IS THE LOWEST NUMBER ON VENTILATORS IN THE NORTH WEST SINCE 4 JUNE
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Healdplace
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Latest UK hospuital numbers
UK 11.034 patients & 306 ventilated
This day last year there were:- 16,855 patients & 2273 on ventilators
Not hard to see why we are in so much better shape 12 months on
Patients about 65% of last year - Ventilated (as in most serious) -just 13%
UK 11.034 patients & 306 ventilated
This day last year there were:- 16,855 patients & 2273 on ventilators
Not hard to see why we are in so much better shape 12 months on
Patients about 65% of last year - Ventilated (as in most serious) -just 13%
roubaixtuesday
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I think with the end of testing coming and the change in attitudes already being seen, testing figures are probably starting to be misleading as ascertainment drops.
So probably time to look at the ONS weekly survey, which has survived treasury attempts to sit it down, as the only reliable indicator now.
ONS out today continues to show a drop, maybe a little less, perhaps related to BA2 taking over.
So probably time to look at the ONS weekly survey, which has survived treasury attempts to sit it down, as the only reliable indicator now.
ONS out today continues to show a drop, maybe a little less, perhaps related to BA2 taking over.
Healdplace
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BA 2 is still uncertain is it not?
We know it is more infectious. Which is a scary thought in of itself given the step up BA 1 Omicron was. But nowhere near as much more infective as BA 1 was over what it replaced.
As I understand there are small indications you can get both versions though as this is as yet so new numbers are small. But no data that it impacts the efficacy of the vaccine or is naturally more dangerous.
Though in lab tests on unvaccinated animals it has created more serious illness. Not sure if that is v BA 1 or v previous variants,
I guess the new normal will involve awaiting the Zeta variant that is way way more infectious as you can get it if you live in the same postcode as someone who does and hope that stays as treatable as what we have.
Kind of like we will be playing the lottery every week for a few years hoping our numbers never come up.
Though I am sure at some point a broader spread vaccine will be created to try to anticipate what comes next.As at the speed these highly infectious variants go there will be quite possibly no time to react to them and vaccinate widely before the next one is in your face.
Hopefully repeated exposure and multipe vaccinations will edge us towards a kind of herd immunity even if that is literally not possible in the same way as you cannot against the multiple variants creating the common cold - gven how Covid allows such variety and reinfection.
I am sure you will correc me if I have misunderstood anything.
We know it is more infectious. Which is a scary thought in of itself given the step up BA 1 Omicron was. But nowhere near as much more infective as BA 1 was over what it replaced.
As I understand there are small indications you can get both versions though as this is as yet so new numbers are small. But no data that it impacts the efficacy of the vaccine or is naturally more dangerous.
Though in lab tests on unvaccinated animals it has created more serious illness. Not sure if that is v BA 1 or v previous variants,
I guess the new normal will involve awaiting the Zeta variant that is way way more infectious as you can get it if you live in the same postcode as someone who does and hope that stays as treatable as what we have.
Kind of like we will be playing the lottery every week for a few years hoping our numbers never come up.
Though I am sure at some point a broader spread vaccine will be created to try to anticipate what comes next.As at the speed these highly infectious variants go there will be quite possibly no time to react to them and vaccinate widely before the next one is in your face.
Hopefully repeated exposure and multipe vaccinations will edge us towards a kind of herd immunity even if that is literally not possible in the same way as you cannot against the multiple variants creating the common cold - gven how Covid allows such variety and reinfection.
I am sure you will correc me if I have misunderstood anything.