EU referendum

[Chippy_boy]

It will take years for the UK negotiators to agree on our negotiating position. Trade negotiations involve setting priorities, making compromises. They create winners and losers. The winners keep quiet, the losers make a noise. Especially if the losers are considered to be more worthy than the winners. Whichever Tory PM leads the negotiations will inevitably be accused of favouring bankers over farmers, car workers etc. Favouring London and South East jobs, over jobs in the regions. Once the EU makes it clear that we're not going to retain access to the free market without any of the obligations, it will get very messy very quickly.

I think the most likely outcome is that we would not have an EU trade deal. I can't see any circumstances where the leaders of a successful Out campaign would agree to the UK then being bound by the same terms that compelled us to leave. Equally, I cannot see the EU agreeing to trade deal without most of those conditions. I think these differences would be irreconcilable and we'd basically have to continue without a deal for probably the next decade at least.

Of course that doesn't mean we were unable to trade with the EU, but it would mean that UK goods and services were subject to import duty.

 

[Metal Biker]

That's the best argument for eu membership I've ever read

Actually it's one people find most terrifying and is not what the EU was set up to become.

 

[blueonblue]

"Hello ?, Angela Merkel ?, just wondering what your doing with all those BMWs/Merc/VWs/Audi`s the EU has said you can no longer sell to the British while we take years to negotiate a trade deal"
"Whats that Angela, the companies have refused to fund your party and your country has a big f*cking hole where all that money generated in those sales has disappeared, AND the EU want more money off you to make up the shortfall from the missing UK contributions, oh dear Angela what are you going to do ?"


"Why we will take years to negotiate a trade deal of course", not that I expect to be in power for longer than it takes for the German Electorate to place a big f*ck right off cross on the ballot paper to elect a party who will tell the EU to f*ck off and negotiate a German deal in a couple of weeks."

"OK Thanks Angela, just going to call Italy about Fiat/wine ect, France on Citron/wine/cheese/ect, Spain on Seat/fruit, Holland on Flowers/Cheese/ect, Hmmm, it might be quicker if you could point me in the right direction on anybody who does not want to trade with the UK, No Angela I thought of Portugal but they wants to buy all the fish they can no longer catch in the UK fishing Grounds"

"Oh well never mind I will work it out, good luck for your future career, just remember what other people who faced such problems are saying now , do you want fries with that?"

 

[Chippy_boy]

"Hello ?, Angela Merkel ?, just wondering what your doing with all those BMWs/Merc/VWs/Audi`s the EU has said you can no longer sell to the British while we take years to negotiate a trade deal"
"Whats that Angela, the companies have refused to fund your party and your country has a big f*cking hole where all that money generated in those sales has disappeared, AND the EU want more money off you to make up the shortfall from the missing UK contributions, oh dear Angela what are you going to do ?"


"Why we will take years to negotiate a trade deal of course", not that I expect to be in power for longer than it takes for the German Electorate to place a big f*ck right off cross on the ballot paper to elect a party who will tell the EU to f*ck off and negotiate a German deal in a couple of weeks."

"OK Thanks Angela, just going to call Italy about Fiat/wine ect, France on Citron/wine/cheese/ect, Spain on Seat/fruit, Holland on Flowers/Cheese/ect, Hmmm, it might be quicker if you could point me in the right direction on anybody who does not want to trade with the UK, No Angela I thought of Portugal but they wants to buy all the fish they can no longer catch in the UK fishing Grounds"

"Oh well never mind I will work it out, good luck for your future career, just remember what other people who faced such problems are saying now , do you want fries with that?"

Why don't you just face up to the reality that a trade deal would be enormously complicated and take years or decades? If your argument is that we should leave anyway, then I get that. I can respect that argument. But this silly clinging to a notion that we could negotiate a complex, highly politicised agreement like this in anything less than many years is just bonkers. There's no precedent for anything like what you are implying, and plenty evidence that it would take years and years. Just give it up mate and debate on something where you actually might have a point.

 

[cibaman]

I think the most likely outcome is that we would not have an EU trade deal. I can't see any circumstances where the leaders of a successful Out campaign would agree to the UK then being bound by the same terms that compelled us to leave. Equally, I cannot see the EU agreeing to trade deal without most of those conditions. I think these differences would be irreconcilable and we'd basically have to continue without a deal for probably the next decade at least.

Of course that doesn't mean we were unable to trade with the EU, but it would mean that UK goods and services were subject to import duty.

Doesn't it default to WTO terms? Which, as I understand it, would vary considerably across different business sectors. Some sectors might actually benefit, others would be very badly affected. Overall it might not be that bad, but its the disparity that would create the political furore.

 

[blueonblue]

We dont need a trade deal, if you want to buy anything and somebody wants to sell it then the only thing that matters is price & quality, if the EU wants to hamper its member countries with a price tariff then both British and the rest of the world companies will be jumping with joy.

When there is money to be made a way will be found, where there is money to be lost a way will be found a damn sight quicker, an we wont be the ones facing the biggest loss.

The EU member states will NOT want a trade war they are bound to lose an the big boys all know it, business funds politics so it does as its f*cking well told or there are changes.

 

[cibaman]

"Hello ?, Angela Merkel ?, just wondering what your doing with all those BMWs/Merc/VWs/Audi`s the EU has said you can no longer sell to the British while we take years to negotiate a trade deal"
"Whats that Angela, the companies have refused to fund your party and your country has a big f*cking hole where all that money generated in those sales has disappeared, AND the EU want more money off you to make up the shortfall from the missing UK contributions, oh dear Angela what are you going to do ?"


"Why we will take years to negotiate a trade deal of course", not that I expect to be in power for longer than it takes for the German Electorate to place a big f*ck right off cross on the ballot paper to elect a party who will tell the EU to f*ck off and negotiate a German deal in a couple of weeks."

"OK Thanks Angela, just going to call Italy about Fiat/wine ect, France on Citron/wine/cheese/ect, Spain on Seat/fruit, Holland on Flowers/Cheese/ect, Hmmm, it might be quicker if you could point me in the right direction on anybody who does not want to trade with the UK, No Angela I thought of Portugal but they wants to buy all the fish they can no longer catch in the UK fishing Grounds"

"Oh well never mind I will work it out, good luck for your future career, just remember what other people who faced such problems are saying now , do you want fries with that?"

I thought one of the arguments put forward by Brexiters is that the EU is bad for business? All of that red tape and taxes?

I've never really subscribed to that view, but equally I don't see the evidence that the big business has a disproportionate influence on policy making. Al least no more than big business has anywhere. If BMW and Dutch flower growers are running the show, its not particularly evident.

EU policymaking is usually dominated by political considerations rather than what's best for business.

 

[Chippy_boy]

We dont need a trade deal, if you want to buy anything and somebody wants to sell it then the only thing that matters is price & quality, if the EU wants to hamper its member countries with a price tariff then both British and the rest of the world companies will be jumping with joy.

When there is money to be made a way will be found, where there is money to be lost a way will be found a damn sight quicker, an we wont be the ones facing the biggest loss.

The EU member states will NOT want a trade war they are bound to lose an the big boys all know it, business funds politics so it does as its f*cking well told or there are changes.

So have you changed your tune now from "we'll easily get a trade deal" to "we don't need a trade deal"? The latter argument is at least debateable and to be honest, probably not debated enough.

 

[KenTheLandlord]

We dont need a trade deal, if you want to buy anything and somebody wants to sell it then the only thing that matters is price & quality, if the EU wants to hamper its member countries with a price tariff then both British and the rest of the world companies will be jumping with joy.

When there is money to be made a way will be found, where there is money to be lost a way will be found a damn sight quicker, an we wont be the ones facing the biggest loss.

The EU member states will NOT want a trade war they are bound to lose an the big boys all know it, business funds politics so it does as its f*cking well told or there are changes.

Lets see what the brexit head has to say

 

[Monkfish]

Actually it's one people find most terrifying and is not what the EU was set up to become.

Actually its not what the EU is or become, but if it was the UK and France would not have been able to fuck up Libya. Which 'people' is it you speak about are anxious for our disastrous bombing campaigns of the last 20 years to continue, and which countries are your people anxious to bomb next?