EU referendum

[AlgarveBlu]

Why don't you just face up to the reality that a trade deal would be enormously complicated and take years or decades? If your argument is that we should leave anyway, then I get that. I can respect that argument. But this silly clinging to a notion that we could negotiate a complex, highly politicised agreement like this in anything less than many years is just bonkers. There's no precedent for anything like what you are implying, and plenty evidence that it would take years and years. Just give it up mate and debate on something where you actually might have a point.

I really don't think the EU will be in a position to take years and decades - there is a strong possibility just based on the fact that they go through a minimum of two major crises per year - refunding of Greece is the next obvious one - a lot of the technical issues that take a long time to iron out will already be satisfied by the UK in having met current legislation requirements so the only thing left to decide is how many punitive measures to add on to set an example - Only a fraction of the time that it will take to renegotiate this will be based upon technical matters the majority will be the 'political' element and message to send out to any other countries that have the audacity to consider leaving the 'club'...

 

[Metal Biker]

Actually its not what the EU is or become, but if it was the UK and France would not have been able to fuck up Libya. Which 'people' is it you speak about are anxious for our disastrous bombing campaigns of the last 20 years to continue, and which countries are your people anxious to bomb next?

'We' were thinking maybe Belgium.

 

[hgblue]

Doesn't it default to WTO terms? Which, as I understand it, would vary considerably across different business sectors. Some sectors might actually benefit, others would be very badly affected. Overall it might not be that bad, but its the disparity that would create the political furore.

As I understand it WTO tariffs are 2.4%, which amounts to less than our current net contribution to the EU. America, China and Russia have no trade deal with the EU and I believe they export more than we do to the EU and we're in it. Another total red herring.

 

[smudgedj]

Why don't you just face up to the reality that a trade deal would be enormously complicated and take years or decades? If your argument is that we should leave anyway, then I get that. I can respect that argument. But this silly clinging to a notion that we could negotiate a complex, highly politicised agreement like this in anything less than many years is just bonkers. There's no precedent for anything like what you are implying, and plenty evidence that it would take years and years. Just give it up mate and debate on something where you actually might have a point.

Business investment depends on profits not politics. The EU comes under the WTO. So we trade on WTO terms.

 

[cibaman]

As I understand it WTO tariffs are 2.4%, which amounts to less than our current net contribution to the EU. America, China and Russia have no trade deal with the EU and I believe they export more than we do to the EU and we're in it. Another total red herring.

Yes, overall they're not that high. But they vary considerably across sectors and products. Up to 70% on beef products according to the former head of the WTO. Those businesses that are not impacted will be happy and keep schtum. Its the ones that are significantly affected that will raise hell.

 

[hgblue]

Yes, overall they're not that high. But they vary considerably across sectors and products. Up to 70% on beef products according to the former head of the WTO. Those businesses that are not impacted will be happy and keep schtum. Its the ones that are significantly affected that will raise hell.

The point being that we won't have to pay a membership fee and can choose to protect those industries who have been unfairly affected.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The point being that you've changed your tune from the "of course we'll be able to agree a trade deal" to "we don't need a trade deal".

 

[Helmet Cole]

The point being that you've changed your tune from the "of course we'll be able to agree a trade deal" to "we don't need a trade deal".

Neither of which mean we need to be in.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Neither of which mean we need to be in.

Well the first one is just wrong. The second is more debateable. Some (we can debate how many) Japanese and other businesses which have invested in the UK because it's in the EU, will surely decamp elsewhere if we are no longer in it. So it comes down to whether the loss of revenue and jobs that will result in our more restricted trade with the EU, is more than compensated for by increased trade with other nations. And if it that's true, whether the gains are worth the upheaval and risk. In my judgement, they are probably not. I think we'd be worse off - perhaps significantly worse off - for years and for no real gain other than some romantic idea of "getting our freedom back", which is not for me a compelling argument.

We - you and I - don't have any freedom anyway. We vote for who and what we like and then politicians and policies get dumped on us whether we voted for them or not. I don't really see much advantage in having some English MP or law I don't want instead of an EU one.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

As I understand it WTO tariffs are 2.4%, which amounts to less than our current net contribution to the EU. America, China and Russia have no trade deal with the EU and I believe they export more than we do to the EU and we're in it. Another total red herring.

This is correct and a total red herring. It bores the hell out of me. I get work from inside the Eu and outside and to be honest if I get a call from someone in Mexico or Spain we don't run to the filing cabinet to get the latest trade deal out with that country. We just get on with it.

People go on about the disaster of us not having a trade deal and it takes years to get one with the Eu or the USA. The major economies can't get trade deals agreed with the Eu because the Eu cannot agree anything between themselves as there are so many competing interests. Without all that baggage I imagine we will be able to agree these deals (assuming of course you accept the bollox that they are important in the first place) with most of the countries around the globe , I can predict though of the new trade deals we may need to get which will be the most difficult and take the longest, can't you?