Too cynical? No, you're WAAAAAAYYYYYY too cynical. Seriously, you and a load of people on here who have a real chip on their shoulder about all these evil politicians out to get them. Honestly, it's quite sad. Maybe you personally don't fall into that camp, but you are too cynical imho.
And you're just playing with words. I didn't say predicting and calculatting are the TRUTH. I said in the absense of the truth, it's the best we've got. None of the respecting economists are "guessing". That implies throwing darts at the wall, or looking at tea leaves and even you must recognise they are not doing that. They are *working it out* as best they can given the data, given previous experiences of other situations.
To dismiss all this as "well it might be right, or it might be wrong" and therefore suggest it's 50-50 either way is just pure bollocks, simply to try to defend an indefensible position.