EU referendum

[KenTheLandlord]

YouGov interactive map of th current state of polling.

https://yougov.co.uk/yougov-8545/

Manchester happens to be one of the most eurosceptic areas of the country.

It's europhile and ranks 160.
That would make much more sense due to higher diversity of peoples living here.

 

[TonyM]

I'm still undecided but increasingly concerned about the idea of the Brexiters taking over the government of the country. I'm convinced that the first 5-10 years post Brexit would be bad news, don't believe that it would be a seamingless transition, with one bound being free from the EU yoke but still enjoying all of the trading benefits. However over the longer term, 20 years or so, we might be better off out of a completely dysfunctional structure.

The problem for me is that, if the Brexiters win, the first 5-10 years could be so bad that the UK doesn't recover. I have no love for Cameron, Osborne and co, but the idea of Johnson and the other Brexiters taking control of the Tory party seems to me to be quite scary. Particularly at a time when we do not have an effective opposition. If they do win all of their focus will be on the continuing battle with the EU over the terms of the exit. Which seems increasingly to becoming fixated on the issue of immigration. Would they have the time to run the economy NHS, education etc? I certainly don't think they would have the competence.

I think the first 5-10 years could be very positive with people sensing that it's one for all and all for one. I'm picturing a real effort to address issues internally and attract tourists and investment to the country. Britain is a trendy place due to music and sport. I could see both being used to pull people together and to ensure that it's not a crazy nationalistic image but a friendly communal one.

The only fear is the crazies who'd try to crash the party.

 

[stonerblue]

I think the first 5-10 years could be very positive with people sensing that it's one for all and all for one. I'm picturing a real effort to address issues internally and attract tourists and investment to the country. Britain is a trendy place due to music and sport. I could see both being used to pull people together and to ensure that it's not a crazy nationalistic image but a friendly communal one.

The only fear is the crazies who'd try to crash the party.

fuck me Tony, that's a stretch of the imagination...

 

[TonyM]

fuck me Tony, that's a stretch of the imagination...

not if everyone just had a hug. One big long friendly gentle caring warm hugfest.

 

[EalingBlue2]

I think it's absolutely inevitable whether the vote is yes or no that there will be a realisation in 5 years time that the same problems and issues remain and that nothing has been solved. There will be a realisation that long term decline from being a leading world power, ageing populations, the necessity of immigration are/were problems in or out of Europe that needed solutions a decade ago but that politicians chose the home other factors as all they care about is the next election not the long term good of the country

 

[grunge]

It's europhile and ranks 160.
That would make much more sense due to higher diversity of peoples living here.

Doh! That'll be my fat fingers looking at the map on a small screen, it's Warrington that's majorly eurosceptic.

 

[KenTheLandlord]

Doh! That'll be my fat fingers looking at the map on a small screen, it's Warrington that's majorly eurosceptic.

No worries pal.

 

[YPhrunts]

As I said in my earlier posts, the main problem I forsee is the Common Agricultural Policy. It's money being paid by us to Brussels and is then being redirected into the pockets of the rich. And Paul Dacre is just a small fish in a very big pond.

http://www.theguardian.com/media/20...r-paul-dacre-received-88000-eu-subsidies-2014

 

[blueonblue]

The EU is one big cash grab for the benefit of the few and always has been, it has imposed itself as a middle man and stolen/redirected Billions if not Trillions over the years while producing nothing.

 

[roaminblue]

It isn't that I don't care about trade, it's that I simply don't believe the predictions of economic disaster we're hearing. Here's the thing, every statistic I've seen bandied about by the pro EU side strikes me as being highly dubious. 3 million jobs depend on our membership of the EU. Oh really? What does that statistic actually mean? If we leave the EU we will no longer trade with the EU? A country does not have to have a trade agreement with the EU to trade with the EU. In fact the EUs largest international trading partners were China, the US and Russia, none of which have a trade agreement with the EU. We also have a massive trade deficit with the EU and the idea that they would jeopordise these crucial exports to the UK at a time when the Eurozone is in crisis is laughable. Actually less than 15% of our economy and falling, is accounted for by UK exports to the EU, yet 100% of our economy is subject to EU regulation. In terms of trade an EU exit would allow us to reactivate our seat on the WTO, and release our businesses from the burden of EU regulation. All of our trade agreements are currently negotiated by the EU taking into account the interests of 28 seperate and disparate nations, an exit would allow us to negotiate our own trade deals with the best interests of this nation at their heart. But we would lose our ability to influence the EU I hear you cry. Well since records began in 1996 we have tried to block proposals from the EU commission on 72 occasions. Care to hazard a guess how many times we've been successful? Answer starts with a Z and ends with an O.

So, most of your post here was about trade, yet it you appear to be pretty quick to dismiss it. I guess I just don't understand your angle. I discussed a few of your points in my first post. Go back and re read it. Not because I think I have all the answers, but rather I think the trade side of the argument is hugely skewed from the out campaign (deficit, game theory etc. In particular). The analysis in my original post discusses why it doesn't have to be a sharp decrease in any single countries exports for them to hurt us. For most, its a negligible increase. Factor in their desire to develop their own competencies in certain areas and the punishment doesn't even have to be a loss leader to htme.

As for 3m jobs, maybe it is dubious, but what is the counter argument? None? 1m? I'd be interested to see the assessment (genuine question, as I haven't seen one yet - not saying it doesn't exist).

We can talk all day about regulation, I've yet to see any evidence that the EU is any more bureaucratic or any less undemocratic than our own government. By your own admission, we have the ability to block/veto proposals, and your statistic is a handy soundbite, but it fits an agenda right? How many proposals, trade or otherwise, have we had reformed, blocked etc? Its definitely not zero, and maybe, just maybe, a more engaged set of MEPs would be able to have a more engaged debate within the EU. Even Johnson, with his tea bag example at his car crash treasury select committee, didn't have the right facts.

Anyway, I'm glad at least you do engage in conversation, its an interesting discussion that I don't really have the energy to continue right now, but compared to some of the propoganda filled nonsense that has been on this thread, its good form :-)