EU referendum

[hilts]

The chances of us voting to the leave the EU and then accepting the free movement of people are zero.

I agree Good luck to any party that tried that one

 

[Chippy_boy]

Can you really envisage a scenario where Europe would stop trading with us over people having to show a passport?

I am not meaning to single you out particularly, but I've seen that sort of comment dozens of times on here, and sorry but it *completely* misses the point.

The point is, you don't have an agreement until the parties agree, and in the case of our EU exit negotiations, it means specifically that 20 countries have to agree. If the negotiations are difficult, with both sides demanding things that the other side will not agree to, then there's no agreement. Negotiations in these situations inevitably take forever. The Canadian agreement - which has taken 7 years and counting - is just such an example. Neither side started out saying "let's take 7 years to do this, shall we"! Both sides were keen on reaching an agreement, but because of difficulties agreeing certain things (for example food safety standards), it's taken 7 years.

So it's not a case of the other 27 holding us to ransom or cutting off their noses etc. It's just that we aren't going to be able to reach an agreement for years. The EU's starting point will *definitely* be Schengen, full acceptance of the supremecy of the European Court, free movement of labour, adherence to all EU employment law including the Working Time Directive. It is inevitable that they will want this, because if they do not, then UK firms have an unfair competitive advantage against EU firms that are saddled with these costs and restrictions. Inevitably also, we will not want to agree to any of this. It will be stalement for YEARS. It's absolutely inevitable that this will happen.

 

[hilts]

I am not meaning to single you out particularly, but I've seen that sort of comment dozens of times on here, and sorry but it *completely* misses the point.

The point is, you don't have an agreement until the parties agree, and in the case of our EU exit negotiations, it means specifically that 20 countries have to agree. If the negotiations are difficult, with both sides demanding things that the other side will not agree to, then there's no agreement. Negotiations in these situations inevitably take forever. The Canadian agreement - which has taken 7 years and counting - is just such an example. Neither side started out saying "let's take 7 years to do this, shall we"! Both sides were keen on reaching an agreement, but because of difficulties agreeing certain things (for example food safety standards), it's taken 7 years.

So it's not a case of the other 27 holding us to ransom or cutting off their noses etc. It's just that we aren't going to be able to reach an agreement for years. The EU's starting point will *definitely* be Schengen, full acceptance of the supremecy of the European Court, free movement of labour, adherence to all EU employment law including the Working Time Directive. It is inevitable that they will want this, because if they do not, then UK firms have an unfair competitive advantage against EU firms that are saddled with these costs and restrictions. Inevitably also, we will not want to agree to any of this. It will be stalement for YEARS. It's absolutely inevitable that this will happen.

I get this but it isn't a reason to stay in, you have to look at the wider picture, don't stay in something because leaving will be awkward, the world is a big place and business is very good at taking opportunities I actually think others will leave if we do, you cannot decide a countries long term future by worrying about the next few years. How has short termism done well for us in the past. I want a vision not a band aid

 

[Helmet Cole]

So meanwhile lidl, aldi, Audi and BMW will not be doing business here? Lol.

 

[hilts]

So meanwhile lidl, aldi, Audi and BMW will not be doing business here? Lol.

You know I actually get proper pro Europeans even if I don't agree with them, it's the spineless ones that wind me up, let's just do what we are told and plod on

 

[hgblue]

I am not meaning to single you out particularly, but I've seen that sort of comment dozens of times on here, and sorry but it *completely* misses the point.

The point is, you don't have an agreement until the parties agree, and in the case of our EU exit negotiations, it means specifically that 20 countries have to agree. If the negotiations are difficult, with both sides demanding things that the other side will not agree to, then there's no agreement. Negotiations in these situations inevitably take forever. The Canadian agreement - which has taken 7 years and counting - is just such an example. Neither side started out saying "let's take 7 years to do this, shall we"! Both sides were keen on reaching an agreement, but because of difficulties agreeing certain things (for example food safety standards), it's taken 7 years.

So it's not a case of the other 27 holding us to ransom or cutting off their noses etc. It's just that we aren't going to be able to reach an agreement for years. The EU's starting point will *definitely* be Schengen, full acceptance of the supremecy of the European Court, free movement of labour, adherence to all EU employment law including the Working Time Directive. It is inevitable that they will want this, because if they do not, then UK firms have an unfair competitive advantage against EU firms that are saddled with these costs and restrictions. Inevitably also, we will not want to agree to any of this. It will be stalement for YEARS. It's absolutely inevitable that this will happen.

Why the hell should we leave the EU and then accept all the things about the EU that made us leave in the first place? You make it sound like we're some insignificant trading partner that they can afford to mess about without this having any consequences for them. Once we leave the EU we become their most important export market and pissing off your largest customer would be disastrous for major EU exporters.

 

[Helmet Cole]

The irony is that much of the pro EU rhetoric is based upon us being part of a larger trading block, but at the same time they miss the point that we are part of a global economy of which the EU is but one part. London is not one of the worlds biggest financial and economic centers because of the EU, its because it is a global player.

 

[Mike D]

We really wouldn't though would we.

I'm just making the point that Brexit wouldn't be tickety boo or would mean for the little Englanders stopping all those bloody foreignors coming in. The campaign itself makes me want to vomit listening to another Lynton Crosby orchestrated project fear smear campaign. The outer's are not much better either when you have 2 numb nuts like Grayling and IDS in your ranks its hardly surprising.
If its wasn't so close and so important I would probably not even bother voting.

 

[hilts]

I'm just making the point that Brexit wouldn't be tickety boo or would mean for the little Englanders stopping all those bloody foreignors coming in. The campaign itself makes me want to vomit listening to another Lynton Crosby orchestrated project fear smear campaign. The outer's are not much better either when you have 2 numb nuts like Grayling and IDS in your ranks its hardly surprising.
If its wasn't so close and so important I would probably not even bother voting.

That first sentence says more about your thinking than it does about the outers in fairness. Someone with such a closed mind about the opposing view and their motives can never be debated with.

 

[YPhrunts]

I don't get this argument that the migration from mainland Europe to the UK has put a massive strain on the system. Without it we will have failed to fill many skilled positions in the NHS.

As for the so called benefit claimants, I think this is a myth. 99% of those coming here from Europe are here to work, and many of them work very hard. All those unskilled, low paid jobs our own unemployed can't be bothered to fill are helping British businesses and contributing tax where there wouldn't otherwise be.

For a start we don't have to be members of the EU in order to accept good medical professional workers into the NHS. You make it sound as if we didn't have any foreign doctors, surgeons and nurses before we entered the Common Market. Well I can assure you we did have.

Your second point that benefit claimants are not a problem leaves me puzzled. Isn't that what Cameron was trying to re negotiate in his botched deal a few weeks ago? And that was from a government that supports continued membership. Cameron recognised that we need reform in that area and then botched it so that nobody is really clear what he got in his fudged deal. What we do know is that when he was under the cosh he let Brussels know that 'he ruled nothing out", i.e. we'll take our ball back if we don't get what we want. He didn't...and he didn't. Now it's the fucking end of days if we take our ball back.

 

[purplenose]

I'm just making the point that Brexit wouldn't be tickety boo or would mean for the little Englanders stopping all those bloody foreignors coming in. The campaign itself makes me want to vomit listening to another Lynton Crosby orchestrated project fear smear campaign. The outer's are not much better either when you have 2 numb nuts like Grayling and IDS in your ranks its hardly surprising.
If its wasn't so close and so important I would probably not even bother voting.

"Little Englanders"? The usual cry of racist to anyone who has concerns about the influx of people into our country, a country thats infrastructure is not coping with what we have. People who dont think its right that people can come here and then demand their own totally seperate laws and communities, people who have no interest in integration.

This constant bleating by the inners and the left is a joke.

 

[SWP's back]

The outcome to all this is inevitable and has been for years, what we are really voting on is a federal Europe, it has a common currency,a parliament,trade restrictions and a policy for people to wander around at will once they are on the continent. Step by step we are being dragged to the obvious conclusion. It will get to the point when having separate armed forces,police,parliaments and mp's will seem pointless. We will be that far in that last step will make absolute sense.

Europe will either be one or totally fall apart, the lack of honesty by those involved lead me to the conclusion that they can go and fuck themselves

Forget trade deals or anything like that.

Your argument here sums up most people's wish to leave.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Why the hell should we leave the EU and then accept all the things about the EU that made us leave in the first place? You make it sound like we're some insignificant trading partner that they can afford to mess about without this having any consequences for them. Once we leave the EU we become their most important export market and pissing off your largest customer would be disastrous for major EU exporters.

For god's sake, how many times do we have to go around this loop. The EU is not a single entity. It is 28 states and of the 27 excluding us, 20 of them need to agree the terms of the trade deal. Of the 27, the majority - like 24 or 25 - have nothing to gain from a trade agreement and plenty to lose.

Ask yourself this. When we say to Poland, "we're not allowing your citizens to come to the UK without visa restrictions, points-based, capped migration limits etc", but please will you agree to us having an open trade with you where our UK businesses are free to export to your markets without tarif and without the burden of EU employment laws". Why, why on earth, would they say "OK alright then"? Same for all the eastern EU nations.

Expecting a quick and easy trade negotiation is absolute fantasy and it honestly beggars belief that there's anybody who still clings to this fantasy. EVEN IF all the nations were broadly in support and agreeable, it would take years because the EU is like swimming in treacle at the best of times. But there is no such consensus. It will take YEARS to negotiate a deal. How can it not?

 

[SWP's back]

I'm sure Scottish exit negotiations would be fairly favourable as it is not in our interest to have a failing state north of Hadrian's wall. The fact remains though, that any optimistic prediction for an independent Scottish economy relays on a much higher and steadily increasing oil price. That is a fact. The dire warnings of economic strife post brexit are based on speculation which as yet has no basis in fact. You (and I) have no idea what a post brexit trade deal would look like. Our biggest economic drivers care arms/defense and global finance. Whatever the rights and wrongs of this, it is unlikely to be affected by the EU one way or the other. Our position as a global casino and arms supplier to the poor people of the world is safe.

Excellent post.

 

[west didsblue]

I get this but it isn't a reason to stay in, you have to look at the wider picture, don't stay in something because leaving will be awkward, the world is a big place and business is very good at taking opportunities I actually think others will leave if we do, you cannot decide a countries long term future by worrying about the next few years. How has short termism done well for us in the past. I want a vision not a band aid

You're absolutely right but I am afraid I will be voting based on whether I believe that I personally will be better off in or out of the EU and whether I believe the country as a whole will economically be better or worse off. At the moment I'm yet to be convinced that leaving will benefit us even in the long term. Doesn't mean I agree with every aspect of EU regulation. We probably should take the French attitude and ignore or bend the rules we like the least.

 

[hgblue]

For god's sake, how many times do we have to go around this loop. The EU is not a single entity. It is 28 states and of the 27 excluding us, 20 of them need to agree the terms of the trade deal. Of the 27, the majority - like 24 or 25 - have nothing to gain from a trade agreement and plenty to lose.

Because this completes misses the point that failing to agree a trade deal harms the two main economic drivers of the Eurozone. This will have a knock on effect across the Eurozone which is already in crisis, so failure to ratify a trade deal will very much have a detrimental effect on all. This leaves aside the political ramifications of Germany and France having their wishes over-ruled by the likes of Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithunia. This is totally naive and misses the way the EU works in practice.

 

[stonerblue]

"Little Englanders"? The usual cry of racist to anyone who has concerns about the influx of people into our country, a country thats infrastructure is not coping with what we have. People who dont think its right that people can come here and then demand their own totally seperate laws and communities, people who have no interest in integration.

This constant bleating by the inners and the left is a joke.

says the poster with multiple bleating posts in this thread....

 

[hilts]

You're absolutely right but I am afraid I will be voting based on whether I believe that I personally will be better off in or out of the EU and whether I believe the country as a whole will economically be better or worse off. At the moment I'm yet to be convinced that leaving will benefit us even in the long term. Doesn't mean I agree with every aspect of EU regulation. We probably should take the French attitude and ignore or bend the rules we like the least.

This will ultimately be the view of most if in doubt do nowt, as I said earlier the vote will be to stay in, it will come around again though

 

[west didsblue]

The biggest reason for all the problems within the EU is the common currency. The fact that we're not in it is the single biggest reason why our economy is doing better than theirs, and the fact that we're members of the EU without the Euro dragging us down puts us in an enviable position.

 

[Helmet Cole]

The outcome to all this is inevitable and has been for years, what we are really voting on is a federal Europe, it has a common currency,a parliament,trade restrictions and a policy for people to wander around at will once they are on the continent. Step by step we are being dragged to the obvious conclusion. It will get to the point when having separate armed forces,police,parliaments and mp's will seem pointless. We will be that far in that last step will make absolute sense.

Europe will either be one or totally fall apart, the lack of honesty by those involved lead me to the conclusion that they can go and fuck themselves

Integration of police, armed forces and the defense industry is already very much in motion. Our unhappy friends in the caliphate are already forcing out of necessity integration of police and Intel. The post cold war economic reality is moving us towards more integrated defense projects and sdsr 2020 should see a the principle of a euro armed response under central (probably German) command. Weather this is more or less desirable than our current position as the lapdog of the US is anyone's guess, but to regard the EU as anything but a move towards a single state in all respects is naive.