General Election - 4th July 2024

Who will you be voting for in the General Election?

  • Labour

    Votes: 266 56.8%
  • Conservative

    Votes: 12 2.6%
  • Liberal Democrat

    Votes: 40 8.5%
  • Reform

    Votes: 71 15.2%
  • Green Party

    Votes: 28 6.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 51 10.9%

  • Total voters
    468
That’s my assumption. YouGov are apparently trying a new methodology which may capture tactical voting. Or it’s an outlier. One to keep an eye on.

It's supposed to replicate their MRP in some way, without actually being an MRP.

Around 40 on election day would still be high for Labour - it could be the first real four party election, where they all poll 10%+.

Blair got 43, but in a 3 party election.
May got 42, but that was pretty much a two party vote, as the LDs were still low due to the coalition, and so close to the Brexit vote, there wasn't any UKIP/Brexit.
Johnson got 43, but the LDs were still low, and the Brexit party of course stood down in Tory seats.
 

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