General Election - 4th July 2024

[The Future’s Blue!]

Not sure that it will. Botched deal with the EU/Brexit, pandemic, war in Ukraine, 3 PM’s - one cosplaying a lettuce - mad schemes, zero governing competence and diseases in the water supply and all in the last five years.

Labour will have to top that and then some to lose a 170 majority in one term. Reduced, yes but not flipped.

Just think about it, they allowed our waters to possibly kill us!

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

Lots of talk, only one outcome.

Labour displace Conservatives.

Job done.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

That's not actually true.

Only a third of reform voters would have voted Tory. Farage admitted as much before the election, when he said there wouldn't be any pacts, and one reason was that he couldn't "deliver" the Reform vote to the Tories, in the same way that he could the Brexit party vote.

Almost as many Reform voters, said they'd vote Labour/Lib Dem and Green, if no Reform candidate.

If you reallocate them to where they said they'd vote, then, even without tactical voting, Labour still get a majority over 150. If you add in tactical voting, then Labour could potentially have got an even bigger majority without Reform.

Not based in the numerous reports I have seen which have clearly said that Farage split the Tory Vote. And not Labour and LDs, many on here have said the same.

 

[bluenova]

Not based in the numerous reports I have seen which have clearly said that Farage split the Tory Vote. And not Labour and LDs, many on here have said the same.

Sorry if it came across as a bit blunt. I think a lot of people assumed Reform voters would vote Tory, but here's the polling from after the election asking for Reform voters' choices if they weren't standing (I'd already posted them so didn't want to put them again just a few pages later).

Labour would have still got a huge landslide based on these figures.



These figures would translate into approx 38% Labour, 30% Tory, 14% Lib Dem, 8% Green. Given the spread of the Labour vote, and the tactical voting we saw, Labour would have still got a landslide.

It tallies with all the polling over the last few years. At the last election, Brexit voters were BIG fans of Johnson, and had a very favourable view of the Tory party. Voters moving to Reform over the last couple of years, have been polled numerous times, and their views of Sunak and the Tories were awful - similar to the rest of the population.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Sorry if it came across as a bit blunt. I think a lot of people assumed Reform voters would vote Tory, but here's the polling from after the election asking for Reform voters' choices if they weren't standing (I'd already posted them so didn't want to put them again just a few pages later).

Labour would have still got a huge landslide based on these figures.



These figures would translate into approx 38% Labour, 30% Tory, 14% Lib Dem, 8% Green. Given the spread of the Labour vote, and the tactical voting we saw, Labour would have still got a landslide.

It tallies with all the polling over the last few years. At the last election, Brexit voters were BIG fans of Johnson, and had a very favourable view of the Tory party. Voters moving to Reform over the last couple of years, have been polled numerous times, and their views of Sunak and the Tories were awful - similar to the rest of the population.

Fair enough, so where did the votes go then. Labour has a landslide with half a million less votes than Corbyn in 2019. Is this down to voter apathy and a low turnout?

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Sorry if it came across as a bit blunt. I think a lot of people assumed Reform voters would vote Tory, but here's the polling from after the election asking for Reform voters' choices if they weren't standing (I'd already posted them so didn't want to put them again just a few pages later).

Labour would have still got a huge landslide based on these figures.



These figures would translate into approx 38% Labour, 30% Tory, 14% Lib Dem, 8% Green. Given the spread of the Labour vote, and the tactical voting we saw, Labour would have still got a landslide.

It tallies with all the polling over the last few years. At the last election, Brexit voters were BIG fans of Johnson, and had a very favourable view of the Tory party. Voters moving to Reform over the last couple of years, have been polled numerous times, and their views of Sunak and the Tories were awful - similar to the rest of the population.

Labour managed to increase their number of votes from the last GE by 1.7%

 

[bluenova]

Fair enough, so where did the votes go then. Labour has a landslide with half a million less votes than Corbyn in 2019. Is this down to voter apathy and a low turnout?

A number of reasons - we probably won't know till a full analysis is done, but it appears to be:

- Low turnout. Partly because the result was "known", and a few % due to the new ID rules.
- People hated the Tories, so their vote was low. You get tipping points with FPTP, and once you get into the 20s, it's MUCH harder to win seats.
- Labour targeted Tory seats, which held down the Labour vote in seats they already held (they've been briefing for the last two yeas that this was the plan), but spread their vote more efficiently. After the last election there was talk that Labour would need a bigger swing than Blair got just to get a majority of 1. That's because in 2019 their vote was concentrated in places they were always going to win.
-Labour made sure they were 'acceptable' to centrist Tories, and Lib Dems. So the Tories were relaxed about switching, not voting, or voting for someone else, and Lib Dems were happy to vote tactically - making that targeting even more ruthless.

There is a huge amount more churn between elections than there used to be. So what seems obvious - Tories down, Reform up, can be a much more complex story. While many 2019 Tories went to Reform, those voters didn't 'belong' to the Tories, and may not have been Tories before 2019. As the polling shows, had Reform not stood, they'd have mostly gone elsewhere or not voted.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

A number of reasons - we probably won't know till a full analysis is done, but it appears to be:

- Low turnout. Partly because the result was "known", and a few % due to the new ID rules.
- People hated the Tories, so their vote was low. You get tipping points with FPTP, and once you get into the 20s, it's MUCH harder to win seats.
- Labour targeted Tory seats, which held down the Labour vote in seats they already held (they've been briefing for the last two yeas that this was the plan), but spread their vote more efficiently. After the last election there was talk that Labour would need a bigger swing than Blair got just to get a majority of 1. That's because in 2019 their vote was concentrated in places they were always going to win.
-Labour made sure they were 'acceptable' to centrist Tories, and Lib Dems. So the Tories were relaxed about switching, not voting, or voting for someone else, and Lib Dems were happy to vote tactically - making that targeting even more ruthless.

There is a huge amount more churn between elections than there used to be. So what seems obvious - Tories down, Reform up, can be a much more complex story. While many 2019 Tories went to Reform, those voters didn't 'belong' to the Tories, and may not have been Tories before 2019. As the polling shows, had Reform not stood, they'd have mostly gone elsewhere or not voted.

To back that up, my constituency had a fall in turnout from nearly 69 to 60. Curiously, this seems to have been only 3000 votes total drop.
Labour vote was down by 9500 ish.
Greens got a lot of votes - over 9000 total - and came second, but still an 18k majority for Labour.

I think an additional point is that there will have been an effect of the position on Gaza (certainly here, the Greens vote looks like a protest against Labour).

Figures from wikipedia.

 

[bluethrunthru]

I assume all those PR converts were outraged when Cameron won an outright majority in 2015 on 36% of the vote and any UKIP supporters were posting angry Tweets when when at its peak UKIP got more votes that Reform Ltd did the other day and got no MP's elected?

No - I thought not ......

 

[M18CTID]

Yes but 66% voted otherwise.

If we can’t even get the voting system right, the rest of it has absolutely no chance.

But FPTP has always been the way in this country. I wouldn’t call that not right but at the same time I recognise the arguments for PR.

Funny that I’ve seen so many Reform voters suddenly start demanding PR though when previously they never once advocated it!