General Election - December 12th, 2019

[Summerbuzz]

If there's one common theme which unites both Brexit and Remain supporter alike - and I can think of no other common theme - it is that both sides are sick to the back teeth of this and want it settled one way or another.

Boris is offering the chance to vote to do just that and your lot are denying people that vote. Take the one thing that really pisses people off more than anything else, and do more of it.

Good luck with that as a strategy to win the next GE.

They'll go for the GE, but there's no way people will let BJ use it to soften the blow of him failing to deliver a no-deal brexit, that parliament previously indicated it would not allow. He's been banking on running the clock down, and a GE at this moment would just be another way of doing so. It was reported as his likely strategy at the time he was selected as leader, because Cummings and other advisers are convinced that the only way they can ever survive is to avoid 'upsetting' a core of very unforgiving leave voters (who only they can mobilise), and any deal or compromise that can be passed will do just that. That leaves the only alternative - no deal - the passing of which was already understood to require a massive amount of obfuscation and a GE.

It's really simple. NI. It was the one outstanding issue within a month of the referendum. No one has come up with a broadly acceptable solution. Hence May trying to keep it all away from parliament - from Chequers, they spent month after month running down the clock. Boris arrives, and the only strategy he has in mind, is running down the clock, and trying to force through No Deal. Everyone's seen through it. As soon as the deadline passes, opposition will agree to a deadline - but until then, he's playing big man, big drama, big controversy, just to hide the fact that he has banked everything on being able to avoid looking utterly powerless to actually address that one problem that always existed, was never realistically adressed, and led the ERG to block May's deal - Northern Ireland and the Backstop.

Cummings organised Leave, and Boris' campaign - that's his domain. My view? If his PM and the Govt went for a rational rediscussion of the issue, negotiations and consensus, he is writing his own P45. He needs the whole thing to remain in conflict, otherwise his one trick - the Facebook voter data/analysis - is worthless until the next election. That's the whole trick. We live in a representative democracy, there's some people who have a way of influencing direct votes, therefore, their only real aim is to keep people voting as often as possible for as long as possible.

 

[Chippy_boy]

You recon most people are particularly desperate to have a General Election in October, rather than for example November ?

I can't say I've met anybody who is that keen.

The more the public see of Boris Johnson as PM, the more will grow to either laugh & ridicule or hate him or both.

You surely can't be serious that any opposition party should seek to let him off the hook early ?

That's not the point. If we don't have an October election, we're not leaving in October. It'll be put back to January or February at least and another 3 or 4 months of this shite. People want it sorted. It doesn't get sorted in November, because by then the leaving date is (say) February.

And it's not a question of "letting him off the hook early", it's a question of whether we should respect the referendum result AT ALL. We've pissed about with this for 3 years, and finally we've got to a point where someone is saying OK - here's what I am proposing - let's have a vote so the public can decide. And Labour are saying "no, we mustn't let the public vote, because we might lose". It looks REALLY bad. If they stick to this line I think you seriously underestimate the damage it's going to do to Labour.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I’m sick of it but not sick of it enough to force through a no deal Brexit by suspending parliament.

No-one is suggesting we do that.

If we have a GE in October, the ONLY way we leave on October 31st without a deal is if the public vote to do so. Labour's actions are saying the public should be prevented from having that choice.

 

[mackenzie]

They'll go for the GE, but there's no way people will let BJ use it to soften the blow of him failing to deliver a no-deal brexit, that parliament previously indicated it would not allow. He's been banking on running the clock down, and a GE at this moment would just be another way of doing so. It was reported as his likely strategy at the time he was selected as leader, because Cummings and other advisers are convinced that the only way they can ever survive is to avoid 'upsetting' a core of very unforgiving leave voters (who only they can mobilise), and any deal or compromise that can be passed will do just that. That leaves the only alternative - no deal - the passing of which was already understood to require a massive amount of obfuscation and a GE.

It's really simple. NI. It was the one outstanding issue within a month of the referendum. No one has come up with a broadly acceptable solution. Hence May trying to keep it all away from parliament - from Chequers, they spent month after month running down the clock. Boris arrives, and the only strategy he has in mind, is running down the clock, and trying to force through No Deal. Everyone's seen through it. As soon as the deadline passes, opposition will agree to a deadline - but until then, he's playing big man, big drama, big controversy, just to hide the fact that he has banked everything on being able to avoid looking utterly powerless to actually address that one problem that always existed, was never realistically adressed, and led the ERG to block May's deal - Northern Ireland and the Backstop.

Cummings organised Leave, and Boris' campaign - that's his domain. My view? If his PM and the Govt went for a rational rediscussion of the issue, negotiations and consensus, he is writing his own P45. He needs the whole thing to remain in conflict, otherwise his one trick - the Facebook voter data/analysis - is worthless until the next election. That's the whole trick. We live in a representative democracy, there's some people who have a way of influencing direct votes, therefore, their only real aim is to keep people voting as often as possible for as long as possible.

Excellent summary imho

 

[Chippy_boy]

They'll go for the GE, but there's no way people will let BJ use it to soften the blow of him failing to deliver a no-deal brexit, that parliament previously indicated it would not allow. He's been banking on running the clock down, and a GE at this moment would just be another way of doing so.

Sorry mate but you're misreading this. The running the clock down strategy is no longer valid. I'll bold this bit because it's important:

We cannot leave without a deal now, and since there is fuck all chance now of the EU giving us a better deal (why should they when they want us either to suck up May's shitty deal, or stay) then that means we cannot leave.

The ONLY way now we get to leave on October 31st is if we have GE in which Boris wins, repeals the "can't leave without a deal" law and then we leave. Unless we have a GE that Boris wins, we cannot now leave on October 31st.

In practice, what this no-deal-no-leave bill has done is cancel Brexit. Unless Boris wins a GE, Brexit is cancelled. The EU want us to stay, or suck up a deal that Parliament won't accept. So we are stuck in the EU forever, unless Boris wins a GE to take us out. Unless something changes, the Remainers have won.

 

[Neville Kneville]

That's not the point. If we don't have an October election, we're not leaving in October. It'll be put back to January or February at least and another 3 or 4 months of this shite. People want it sorted. It doesn't get sorted in November, because by then the leaving date is (say) February.

And it's not a question of "letting him off the hook early", it's a question of whether we should respect the referendum result AT ALL. We've pissed about with this for 3 years, and finally we've got to a point where someone is saying OK - here's what I am proposing - let's have a vote so the public can decide. And Labour are saying "no, we mustn't let the public vote, because we might lose". It looks REALLY bad. If they stick to this line I think you seriously underestimate the damage it's going to do to Labour.

I don't care about damage to Labour.

But I think Johnson & Reece Mogg are doing a fantastic job damaging the Tory party & if I was Corbyn I'd be loving it.

But it's not just about Labour, it's all the opposition parties. They want the bill re no deal passed. They aren't 'pretending' not to trust Johnson with an election date, they clearly despise the **** & see him as someone who is a constant liar. I agree with them 100%. He WILL change the date & leave the EU in October, if he can.

He is also even more useless than I imagined he could possibly be & reports are that not even the people who put him in power actually like him.

It's an absolutely fantastic position for the opposition parties & they would be best served letting the Tories destroy themselves further & letting Johnson squirm before putting a bullet in him.

My hope is that Farage will fuck the Tory vote & there will have to be a coalition Govt involving the Lib Dems etc, after an election, which can reign Corbyn in.

 

[Ban-jani]

No-one is suggesting we do that.

If we have a GE in October, the ONLY way we leave on October 31st without a deal is if the public vote to do so. Labour's actions are saying the public should be prevented from having that choice.

That is exactly what Johnson tried.

Johnson can now set the GE to change the date. This will be a undemocratic and calculated move that will ensure hard leavers vote for him and get him over the line, whilst tossing the country to the dogs in the process.

The opposition aren’t buying it, they can wait 2 months and kill the fucker and his wretched party.

 

[Summerbuzz]

Sorry mate but you're misreading this. The running the clock down strategy is no longer valid. I'll bold this bit because it's important:

We cannot leave without a deal now, and since there is fuck all chance now of the EU giving us a better deal (why should they when they want us either to suck up May's shitty deal, or stay) then that means we cannot leave.

The ONLY way now we get to leave on October 31st is if we have GE in which Boris wins, repeals the "can't leave without a deal" law and then we leave. Unless we have a GE that Boris wins, we cannot now leave on October 31st.

In practice, what this no-deal-no-leave bill has done is cancel Brexit. Unless Boris wins a GE, Brexit is cancelled.

That's what I'm saying - his strategy was to create that impression, and run a general election on that basis. No Boris, no Brexit. But it's a whopper. Brexit certainly ISN'T cancelled. All options remain on the table. He;s just deliberately played himself into an impasse to create a drama and a deadline.

 

[Neville Kneville]

Sorry mate but you're misreading this. The running the clock down strategy is no longer valid. I'll bold this bit because it's important:

We cannot leave without a deal now, and since there is fuck all chance now of the EU giving us a better deal (why should they when they want us either to suck up May's shitty deal, or stay) then that means we cannot leave.

The ONLY way now we get to leave on October 31st is if we have GE in which Boris wins, repeals the "can't leave without a deal" law and then we leave. Unless we have a GE that Boris wins, we cannot now leave on October 31st.

In practice, what this no-deal-no-leave bill has done is cancel Brexit. Unless Boris wins a GE, Brexit is cancelled. The EU want us to stay, or suck up a deal that Parliament won't accept. So we are stuck in the EU forever, unless Boris wins a GE to take us out. Unless something changes, the Remainers have won.

If we had an election on the 18th & BJ won, he could still pull us out on 31st.

That's what this is about simple.

 

[George Hannah]

Will the 21 rebel Tories vote for a single clause, simple majority Oct 15 GE? Parliament is prorogued on Monday and the electorate will then confirm whether No Deal is to be left on the table. A Tory victory will allow them to overturn the new extension and the rebels cannot have any complaints, they did their duty and got a second referendum.