How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

Estimates vary, but Brexit has knocked between 3 and 9 per cent off GDP. We have fallen in the rank of exporters from 6th to 14th.

In simple terms, you have a smaller pie, but the same number of people to share it between.

This means either taxes have to rise, or services have to be cut, or both. In reality, both. It may be that this is not all down to Brexit - but something that knocks 3-9% off GDP cannot be good news.

Since the Tories will never penalise the super-wealthy, who own a massively disproportionate share of the UK's wealth and are careful to minimise their tax, it follows as night follows day that most of the burden will fall on ordinary people. And it is! Why do you think people are so angry?

Like it or not, the economy is everything. Wagging a Union Jack about and boasting about how 'independent' we are does not put food on tables, create jobs, or do anything else that is actually useful. Sadly there is not another continent 22 miles away that we can trade with in substitution for the EU.
 
west didsblue said:
Cherry picking the 2021 GDP growth figure is totally misleading. Because our economy suffered more than practically all our peers during the pandemic, it had a much larger drop to recoup. Taking the pre-pandemic figure and comparing it to now provides a much better comparison and on that measure we've done by far the worst, and are the only major economy that has failed to regain (or barely returned to) the pre-pandemic position. Debt ratios are also totally dependent on the type of economy in question (Japan's is double everyone else's for example) and on their own don't tell us much other than by how much they get better or worse. You're absolutely correct about the social and educational factors which will have a longer term impact on the economic health of the country.
Click to expand...
Yeah. I was trying to avoid the pandemic years because the poster himself said that was misleading. Perhaps I fell into a trap of my own making.
Generally, I think people are far too fixated on the direct economic effects of brexit. They don’t like Brexit so they ascribe every short term economic ill to it, but miss the more important stuff.
I could bore for England on the social effects of which education is a major one. So much lost when, say, French students do not come here and ours do not go there: and it’s long term—Macron is an Anglophile and spends his holidays here, for instance. I was glad to see a mea culpa from Varadkar on N.I.— we are near solving that now, interestingly by EU accepting Red and green lanes for uk exports there, which we suggested years ago.
I worked extensively on EU banking regs (ugh!) and I was shocked at some of the cultish attitudes to be found in France, Germany and elsewhere concerning uk not being communitaire enough and the anti American stance. A completed EU standing as a bulwark between US and Russia and being the third great power was an article of faith. It was absolutely necessary for the commission (not the parliament) to become the driver. Putin has knocked that on the head. The future in or out of the EU will be challenging but good. I won’t be around to see it, more’s the pity.
 
BrianW said:
Estimates vary, but Brexit has knocked between 3 and 9 per cent. We have fallen in the rank of exporters from 6th to 14th.

In simple terms, you have a smaller pie, but the same number of people to share it between.

This means either taxes have to rise, or services have to be cut, or both. In reality, both. It may be that this is not all down to Brexit - but something that knocks 3-9% off GDP cannot be good news.

Since the Tories will never penalise the super-wealthy, who own a massively disproportionate share of the UK's wealth and are careful to minimise their tax, it follows as night follows day that most of the burden will fall on ordinary people. And it is! Why do you think people are so angry?

Like it or not, the economy is everything. Wagging a Union Jack about and boasting about how 'independent' we are does not put food on tables, create jobs, or do anything else that is actually useful. Sadly there is not another continent 22 miles away that we can trade with in substitution for the EU.
Click to expand...
The economy is not everything; the rule of law, education, health etc much more important. Ok, the economy pays for these things but if you start there, there is no plan, no purpose. It’s like Cameron who became prime minister without a single idea in his head about what he would do with power. Consequently, he achieved very little, tho’ credit is due for gay marriage laws. You must start with a vision and plan how the economy can deliver it. The economy is our servant, not our master.
Side note: GDP does not tell you the size of the pie. You can have a big GDP and a small pie. Profit per capita, ROCE etc tell you the size of the pie.
 
Last edited:
KS55 said:
The economy is not everything, the rule of law, education, health etc much more important. Ok, the economy pays for these things but if you start there, there is no plan, no purpose. It’s like Cameron who became prime minister without a single idea in his head about what he would do with power. You must start with a vision and plan how the economy can deliver it. The economy is our servant, not our master.
Click to expand...
This is all very well, but as my grandad used to say, you cannot have a Rolls-Royce on pushbike money.

There are some people, I suppose, who would be happy to live like a Carthusian monk, on minimal rations, for the sake of some nebulous 'principle' that they have fixated upon. I am not one of them.

If you want to talk intangibles, what about European culture? We are part of it. We have been for centuries and our medieval kings were more cosmopolitan than any Tory MP of this generation. We are not Americans (God forbid!) or Australians or Indians. We are Europeans and it makes no sense whatever to diverge from other Europeans. No sense whatever.
 
BrianW said:
This is all very well, but as my grandad used to say, you cannot have a Rolls-Royce on pushbike money.

There are some people, I suppose, who would be happy to live like a Carthusian monk, on minimal rations, for the sake of some nebulous 'principle' that they have fixated upon. I am not one of them.

If you want to talk intangibles, what about European culture? We are part of it. We have been for centuries and our medieval kings were more cosmopolitan than any Tory MP of this generation. We are not Americans (God forbid!) or Australians or Indians. We are Europeans and it makes no sense whatever to diverge from other Europeans. No sense whatever.
Click to expand...
I agree. Cultural and social factors are the most important aspect of all this.
The response to your granddad is you have to decide first whether you want a Roller or something else. That is the decision that tells you what sort of country we will be. Do you want to be a society like Scandinavia or like US? That will dictate your economic plan. Compare those societies: US has huge disparity of wealth and plenty of Rollers, Scandinavia has few Rollers but very little disparity. Hardly intangible features.
 
KS55 said:
The economy is not everything; the rule of law, education, health etc much more important. Ok, the economy pays for these things but if you start there, there is no plan, no purpose. It’s like Cameron who became prime minister without a single idea in his head about what he would do with power. Consequently, he achieved very little, tho’ credit is due for gay marriage laws. You must start with a vision and plan how the economy can deliver it. The economy is our servant, not our master.
Side note: GDP does not tell you the size of the pie. You can have a big GDP and a small pie. Profit per capita, ROCE etc tell you the size of the pie.
Click to expand...


Camerons delivery of ''Gay Marriage Laws'' was only the logical extension of Labours enactment of ''Civil Partnerships'' ....nothing new or dramatic.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Emily Matliss was on the other week and said that every day/week/month of the Brexit debate they had many many more economists and businessmen against Brexit than for it but, on every news show, for the sake of ‘balance’ they always had one of each on, which is actually more nonsensical than it sounds…
Click to expand...
FPTP v PR
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.