Keir Starmer

[TinFoilHat]

 

[Chippy_boy]

For the rest of voters <immigration> doesn’t really matter so much. Although someone needs to tell the Tory leadership hopefuls it’s not as big an issue as they think it is.

I am not sure I agree with that. It's always coming out as high on priority lists when the general population is polled. Whether that is because they are brainwashed, or because they experience real issues, who knows but perception is everything.

But the other reason I am not sure I agree is not because of the issue itself but because of the impact upon votes. For as long as the vote on the right is split, Labour will remain in power. Somehow, the right has gone to find a unified platform that people on the right can vote for. IMO that necessitates the Tories moving to accommodate Reform voters. If they do not, then people will continue to vote Reform whilst there is no realistic possibility of Reform forming a government. So all they are doing is keeping Labour in power. Admittedly, I think a lot of people will defect from Labour to deform, especially after Starmer has given them 2 fingers and called many of them racist thugs. But not enough to enable Reform to become the next government, of course.

For the Tories, this really is serious. They could be in opposition for the next 20 years (or forever) if they cannot get this right. They could turn into the next Libdems, out of power for the next decades.

 

[paulchapo]

I am not sure I agree with that. It's always coming out as high on priority lists when the general population is polled. Whether that is because they are brainwashed, or because they experience real issues, who knows but perception is everything.

But the other reason I am not sure I agree is not because of the issue itself but because of the impact upon votes. For as long as the vote on the right is split, Labour will remain in power. Somehow, the right has gone to find a unified platform that people on the right can vote for. IMO that necessitates the Tories moving to accommodate Reform voters. If they do not, then people will continue to vote Reform whilst there is no realistic possibility of Reform forming a government. So all they are doing is keeping Labour in power. Admittedly, I think a lot of people will defect from Labour to deform, especially after Starmer has given them 2 fingers and called many of them racist thugs. But not enough to enable Reform to become the next government, of course.

For the Tories, this really is serious. They could be in opposition for the next 20 years (or forever) if they cannot get this right. They could turn into the next Libdems, out of power for the next decades.

Not if Labour carry on like they started. Usually there is a honeymoon period when a new party is elected. Labour have pissed off almost everybody except train drivers and junior doctors.

 

[BrianW]

The Tories are in a cleft stick.

Position themselves 'left' (by Tory standards) and they lose the Reform types.

Position themselves 'right' and all the sophisticated, educated Tory voters who hate Brexit will go Lib-Dem.

So they can't win.

The fundamental problem with Johnson's voting coalition was that it covered conflicting views.

a) Traditional types, often ex-Labour, mainly working class, mainly northerners, who are xenophobic but want more public spending, especially on them.

b) Traditional types, usually long-term Tories, mainly middle class, mainly southerners, who are (frankly) more sophisticated. Not intolerant of race or sexual inclination, they would like lower taxes for people who 'work hard'. (Them.) Brexit not a real selling point.

These two visions are completely incompatible in the long term and can only be held together by fudging. Johnson was, of course, very good at fudging. His successors were less so.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

The Tories are in a cleft stick.

Position themselves 'left' (by Tory standards) and they lose the Reform types.

Position themselves 'right' and all the sophisticated, educated Tory voters who hate Brexit will go Lib-Dem.

So they can't win.

The fundamental problem with Johnson's voting coalition was that it covered conflicting views.

a) Traditional types, often ex-Labour, mainly working class, mainly northerners, who are xenophobic but want more public spending, especially on them.

b) Traditional types, usually long-term Tories, mainly middle class, mainly southerners, who are (frankly) more sophisticated. Not intolerant of race or sexual inclination, they would like lower taxes for people who 'work hard'. (Them.) Brexit not a real selling point.

These two visions are completely incompatible in the long term and can only be held together by fudging. Johnson was, of course, very good at fudging. His successors were less so.

On top of this, their talent pool is severely diminished. Are there any of the new Tory MPs that are showing that they are potential ministers or leaders?

You only have to look at their leadership contest to see they are currently scraping the bottom of the barrel.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I really like her.

 

[Eccles Blue]

Who is that interviewer, she is an interrupter not interviewer!!!

 

[johnny crossan]

The Tories are in a cleft stick.

Position themselves 'left' (by Tory standards) and they lose the Reform types.

Position themselves 'right' and all the sophisticated, educated Tory voters who hate Brexit will go Lib-Dem.

So they can't win.

The fundamental problem with Johnson's voting coalition was that it covered conflicting views.

a) Traditional types, often ex-Labour, mainly working class, mainly northerners, who are xenophobic but want more public spending, especially on them.

b) Traditional types, usually long-term Tories, mainly middle class, mainly southerners, who are (frankly) more sophisticated. Not intolerant of race or sexual inclination, they would like lower taxes for people who 'work hard'. (Them.) Brexit not a real selling point.

These two visions are completely incompatible in the long term and can only be held together by fudging. Johnson was, of course, very good at fudging. His successors were less so.

A similar problem confronts Starmer, his fudge needs to be even stickier though if Labour are going to retain power.

 

[johnny crossan]

Who is that interviewer, she is an interrupter not interviewer!!!

Its the Sky News presenter from Wigan, Kay Burley.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The Tories are in a cleft stick.

Position themselves 'left' (by Tory standards) and they lose the Reform types.

Position themselves 'right' and all the sophisticated, educated Tory voters who hate Brexit will go Lib-Dem.

So they can't win.

The fundamental problem with Johnson's voting coalition was that it covered conflicting views.

a) Traditional types, often ex-Labour, mainly working class, mainly northerners, who are xenophobic but want more public spending, especially on them.

b) Traditional types, usually long-term Tories, mainly middle class, mainly southerners, who are (frankly) more sophisticated. Not intolerant of race or sexual inclination, they would like lower taxes for people who 'work hard'. (Them.) Brexit not a real selling point.

These two visions are completely incompatible in the long term and can only be held together by fudging. Johnson was, of course, very good at fudging. His successors were less so.

You raise a good point about losing votes to the Lib Dems if they buddy up to Reform.

However, I am not sure that is such a big problem as you make out. First of all the pro-Brexit faction is ever diminishing. Not because people have inherently changed their minds, or because it been such a great success, but because it's done, it's history and IMO there are not many people who would actually vote to change it back. The debate has moved on. It ripped the Tory party apart, but now it's barely discussed.

Peronally I also think Brexit has not been as bad as a lot of Remainers - myself included - suggested that it would be. So yes, they might lose a few votes, but not a huge proportion I would think.

They may at the same time win back a lot of people who are traditional Tories but who could not be arsed to vote. A lot of people don't regard the current Tory party as being remotely Tory. They (and i) are not at all happy with taxes as high as they are, and government interference as pervasive as it is. A return to more "Thatcherite" values would get some people back to the polling station. I wonder how many Tories did not vote for Reform because they felt it would be a waste of time, but could not bring themselves to vote Conservative?