This is what I came up with last week:
I think villa are just about more of a threat than liverpool and spurs, assuming that pool and spurs don't win their games against the top four. villa could easily win 6 more games.
but right now it's still in our hands. at this stage we've just got to keep the points ticking over. 4 from the next two games (fulham A, everton H) is the next step.
then it's Wigan H, Burnley A, Birmingham H. if we took nine, I think draws against utd, villa, spurs and a win on the final day would be enough. six is the minimum, but then we'd probably have to beat villa, maybe spurs too.