Political relations between UK-EU

[mcfc1632]

It isn't bullshit mate. Its true. I also posted from the get go that the Government needed to treat the thing as a massive change programme with all of the disciplines that brings. They didn't. At every step of the way this has been shambolic in terms of setting initial strategy, planning, design, delivery, implementation, testing. They could have brought in someone with the correct experience to oversee all of that and didn't. Having been on the front line of some of the largest retail banking mergers the UK has seen, the attention to detail to make them a success is mind blowing. The quality of leadership at every stage and level has to be best in class. Brexit got things wrong at every stage.

Anyway, enough, I am looking back instead of forward. Now about those poor bloody Scottish Lobsters....

Thank - you and I will also only look briefly back.

I know that you have extensive experience of managing change programmes. We have discussed previously how the management of Brexit should have been established within a programme structure - with a range of workstreams as appropriate. Whilst some of these would have looked at various sectors - e.g. Financial Services, Agriculture, etc. others would have been focussed on commercial issues (so you would not have had amateur dickheads involved in ferries etc.)

Also, there would have been a major workstream for stakeholder management and communications - so the utter incompetence of dealing with N.I, Wales and Scotland - along with the various sectors and the public - would not have been so obviously conducted on the hoof and characterised as continued incompetence.

I could go on - but there is no need to - the bottom line is that there are established approaches, methods and disciplines for managing major change programmes - and the transition of the UK out of the EU after 40+ years must certainly be seen as a major change programme.

I have roundly criticised the government - since September 2016 - for its incompetence in this area. I assume that the lack of commencing the management of a programme was down to the reluctance of May/Hammond to consider that there would be a 'full Brexit' - but even so - any scale of leaving would have required such management arrangements.

Rank amateurs - and whatever issue(s) emerges in the coming weeks and months - they should/would have all be identified and there delivery/mitigations determined if Brexit had been properly managed.

I having nothing but contempt for the government in this regard - although I place the blame mainly with May/Hammond.

Anyway - Scottish Lobsters - I wonder what used to happen before we joined the EU?

 

[Saddleworth2]

Correct in trying to be all things to all men, it ended up being nothing to anyone.

And now Macarthyite Vic has cunningly outed me as a Communist insurgent, kind of like the forum red under the bed I expect he thinks i am an agent of Putin or some other wild eyed fanatic intent on destroying democracy.

Ha! A full and frank confession you rusky rascal. Guards, take him away ;-)

 

[mcfc1632]

I don't think they are necessarily idiots just misinformed and the victims of propaganda.

Goebbels famously said “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

If you are aware of the above and can keep an open mind when confronted with the propaganda being propagated then most people (hopefully) will see it for what it is, a lie. There are people though who will fall for it and be taken in by it. We have to look no further than what is happening in the USA at the moment to realise that is a lot of truth in Goebbels statement.

I do believe this has come about because of the education system. When you have an Education Minister like Gove who champions rote learning over critical thinking then you will end up with a population who can tell you when, but cannot explain why. It is all very well knowing for instance that on a certain date, a certain event happened, but if you cannot explain why that event happened then knowing the dates becomes superfluous. The same things happened with BREXIT in my opinion, you have a dumbed down populace who know certain things happened but don't know why they happened. This is not just a Pro-Brexit thing either , Pro-Remain was exactly the same, they both used manipulation to distort facts knowing that the lack of critical thinking would mean that there positions went unquestioned as they were related to things that the population did know, but hadn't thought about in depth because they lacked the skill of critical thinking.

When you get a debate like Brexit, the sheer enormity of it means in my opinion it is virtually impossible for a person to be totally across all the angles. They will take parts of the debate that they do know that reinforces there beliefs, they do it without questioning there beliefs because they have been taught in a rote learning fashion that, that is that.

That then leads to the tribalism, people identify with like minds, if that like mind also has a penchant for anti- vax, then that position becomes appealing to the others of like mind because of rote learning, it becomes a fact that goes unquestioned because of the lack of skills to evaluate it with critical thinking.

Of course my view may be wholly wrong and it is far simpler than that because i lack the skills to evaluate what has happened in a critical manner, because i also have my own inbuilt bias and i am not immune to being propagandised. We all have our starting points and its what we come across on the way to our end point that is important, a lot of that though will be confirmation bias. We all like t think our position is correct and will look for evidence that supports our position.

On a different note it is one of the reasons i believe referendum is poor democracy, it is wide open to manipulation due to lack of knowledge. In a representative democracy we elect people to do our thinking for us and should in an ideal world trust that those people have our best interests at heart and have the requisite skills required to make sense of complicated debates. Of course those people though are still as open as any of us to Goebbels premise

Good reply Rascal - but to help - I think that @Didsbury Dave was just seeking to use your previous analysis to confirm his view that: "..... most idiots are pro-Brexit."

Just trying to save you some time and effort in the future;-)

 

[The perfect fumble]

Oh dear, seems our little englander chums are horrified by alien concepts like VAT and import duties.

 

[mcfc1632]

So which is it?
It couldn’t be better or it’s going really badly?

You seem to be hedging your bets just so you can say you were right all along.

It’s a bit pathetic and transparent.

Your desperate need to try and catch me out just makes you make a fool of yourself - as with this post.

If you understood these matters - then you would understand that my two posts are in no way contradictory.

1. I have wanted the UK out of the EU for decades - ergo: I am absolutely fucking delighted with the outcome - and no amount of pettiness can impact that

2. I have managed for the government numerous major change programmes and reviewed scores of others.

I am qualified to comment on how these things should be managed and what is a fuck-up in management arrangements - indeed the government pays me on a regular basis for such advice.

Please come back to me if you want any advice on managing major programmes - but only if you are being genuine - rather than just part of your desire to goad etc.

 

[BobKowalski]

Thank - you and I will also only look briefly back.

Forty years into the time tunnel...

Anyway - Scottish Lobsters - I wonder what used to happen before we joined the EU?

 

[Vic]

honest about their policy re Brexit. Their strategy pissed off both Remain and leave supporters.

What was dishonest? No-one can tell us a strategy that would have got Labour more votes.

 

[mcfc1632]

It would never have worked with such polarised views. Any change program has to bring the people with you and whilst the 17.4 million totally ignored the wishes of the 16.2 million plus those that failed to vote it was never going to happen.

No compromises were ever proposed by leavers, no middle ground, total rejection of any solution ... and as more possibilities were proposed, the stance of the leavers hardened even when they started to realise that things would definitely not get better (and there would be no sunny uplands) and that a hard Brexit would seriously damage the UK and the Union.

Sorry - and I do not mean to turn the thread into a discussion on the best practices of managing change/transformation programmes, but.....

You are missing the point(s) completely with those comments

What you have set out with the 16.2 - 17.4 bit would be just one of the many challenges for one of the workstreams within a change programme to deal with - and probably anywhere the top priorities/risks of the programme in planning to achieve its 'Go-Live'

Your comments I suggest just reflect your denial that Brexit has happened - only IMO

 

[Vic]

Correct in trying to be all things to all men, it ended up being nothing to anyone.

And now Macarthyite Vic has cunningly outed me as a Communist insurgent, kind of like the forum red under the bed I expect he thinks i am an agent of Putin or some other wild eyed fanatic intent on destroying democracy.

Macarthyite? If you say you want to vote for the defunct Communist Party of Great Britain, it's a bit superfluous to ask "Are you now or have you ever been a member of the Communist Party?" You outed yourself.

 

[west didsblue]

Your desperate need to try and catch me out just makes you make a fool of yourself - as with this post.

If you understood these matters - then you would understand that my two posts are in no way contradictory.

1. I have wanted the UK out of the EU for decades - ergo: I am absolutely fucking delighted with the outcome - and no amount of pettiness can impact that

2. I have managed for the government numerous major change programmes and reviewed scores of others.

I am qualified to comment on how these things should be managed and what is a fuck-up in management arrangements - indeed the government pays me on a regular basis for such advice.

Please come back to me if you want any advice on managing major programmes - but only if you are being genuine - rather than just part of your desire to goad etc.

Ok, so you're delighted where we are in spite of the rank amateurish management.

The problem you have failed to identify in spite of your years of experience is that the agreement fundamentally screws over numerous industries for the reasons that are clearly described in Bob's post, including the fishing industry in particular. However well the implementation of Brexit is managed it can't get over the fact that the FTA is utterly flawed in numerous areas which is becoming more and more apparent every day with the difficulties exporters and importers are facing by additional time consuming red tape, and the consequences of the rules of origin regulations. These fundamental problems can't be smoothed over by good management. There are a whole new set of regulations that need to be adhered to which adds cost and time to every transaction, to the point where many businesses are pulling out because it's no longer cost effective.

If I want advice on managing major programmes you would be the last person I would ask based on your clear lack of understanding of what is going on.

 

[stonerblue]

Correct in trying to be all things to all men, it ended up being nothing to anyone.

And now Macarthyite Vic has cunningly outed me as a Communist insurgent, kind of like the forum red under the bed I expect he thinks i am an agent of Putin or some other wild eyed fanatic intent on destroying democracy.

Afternoon Rasc' hope you're well?
I've reead your input on this and am a bit surprised at your take on the EU. i think i can understand the ''business' side of your stance (wealth creation, expansion, growth etc) but the 'people' or socialist aspect of your beef has me confused.
The way i see it regarding the union, and being in it, is much better for 'society' and us citizens. EU cash has been used to directly help me and others where i work as well as giving a hand to lift up blighted areas and communities across the country.
Employment laws and free movement meant anyone could look for work or a new life or just love by exploring the eu countries hassle free. We could mingle with our 'neighbours' and forge new friendships at every level. Sharing cultures naturally and easily can only be a good thing surely? More room to grow and far less chance of aggro between the nations. After all, history tells us it's the 'little man' that gets the shit end of that particular stick.
I've always looked at our (UK) governments as dangerous and untrustworthy, although living through the thatcher years and then blair shitting on us that's no surprise. The EU seemed to actually care about the poor, the workers and general health and well being of people. In this regard i saw them as a 'safety net' against the shit tricks and lies successive uk governments have laid on us.

Probably help if i tell you i think of socialism as a philosophy that aims to govern with equality and 'kindness' and not have profit at any cost as its major goal.

 

[mcfc1632]

Not really to bring the people with you then you satisfy the 25/30 million in the middle, not the 2 million or so at the either edge . Just because those 2 million make the most noise and shout the most they aren’t the common view.
If we’d gone the Norway option then yes the ERG and Daily Express, and I gues some arch remainers would have made noise and shouted about BRINO.
The fact is though impact on most people would have been minimal and most would have just got on with it.
As it is the impact won’t be minimal it will be noticed over time by many and there will be a constant push to re negotiate things, a constant reason to compare our Brexit with N. Ireland’s different Brexit especially.
A Brexit appealing to the vocal fringes can never be a good idea.

Excellent post

I have a lot of agreement with this post - even though it is dealing with a different aspect of 'management arrangements' to what @Saddleworth2 and myself have mentioned and are experienced in.

We are essentially commenting on 'once the scope and intended outcomes/delivery' etc. are established - how a change programme should be managed.

But - you raise an excellent point - because before you get too far into implementation planning you need to decide the outcomes to be delivered.

What May should have done - right up front is an 'options appraisal' and I would guess that of (let's say) 10 options that would have been considered then only 3 or 4 would have been short-listed and none of those would have been the option of No-Deal and perhaps also not the deal that has been achieved.

The BRINO option would have certainly been on the short-list - as would Norway and others that reflect close-alignment. The 'contingency' of Remaining would have been kept alive as well.

And - again you are right - if we had achieved for example @Mëtal Bikër 's desire for an EFTA solution - then the majority of people would have been satisfied and the extremists on both sides would have been left to whinge. There may have been some residual 'rumblings' - but this would have been ignored and the populace would have moved on.

I certainly would have been happy - in fact I would have expressed myself as being delighted. Notwithstanding that I am far more delighted with the actual outcome.

I come from the starting point of never thinking that we would leave - and then (even worse) in 2017-2019 thinking that we were going to end up in May's fucked up unfettered backstop.

I would have taken an EFTA arrangement in an heartbeat back in the dark days

You are indeed - spot on

The entire episode has been a series of fuckups and incompetence due to being driven and affected by self-interest groups.

The end result - what we have now - feels like some perverse game of 'musical chairs' - with this deal being the last one to get a seat - pure luck.

 

[mcfc1632]

Then by that logic, remaining wouldn’t have worked either. I agree though that spending time after th3 referendum on agreeing the type of Brexit might have made things smother but no chance of that when Article 50 was triggered.

You will see that I have just agree wholeheartedly with @blueparrot 's post

The options appraisal that I referred to would have determined the timing of issuing A50 - there is no semblance of professional management discernible in this whole journey - but I bet a lot of money was paid to consultants.

 

[Rascal]

Good reply Rascal - but to help - I think that @Didsbury Dave was just seeking to use your previous analysis to confirm his view that: "..... most idiots are pro-Brexit."

Just trying to save you some time and effort in the future;-)

I think what i was trying to say in a polite and reasoned manner was most people are idiots when it comes to Brexit be that both leave and remain.

It struck me from the start that BREXIT was the ball in a high stakes game of ideological Ping Pong between rival factions aiming to control the amount of capitalist influence in the governance of the nation. It was never really about fish, or blue passports, or controlling borders, or sovereignty, it was always about which faction could gain most influence and we the people were thrown metaphorical fish to argue about whilst the real game was played in circles we are not privy to or ever be likely to be privy to.

Therefore I include myself in the idiot category because I have chewed on as many of the metaphorical fish as anyone else.

 

[Vic]

...

Anyway - Scottish Lobsters - I wonder what used to happen before we joined the EU?

(In the EU) overseas seafood exports from Scotland rose nearly 1000% since 2007.

 

[Ban-jani]

He’s trolling the thread and the forum IMO

He’s been trolling all morning, especially the Trump thread where he was absolutely determined to turn it into an anti Tory thread.

 

[mcfc1632]

Personally I put a lot of blame on Corbyn and the Labour party.They had the opportunity to use the Conservative slim majority to push for a cross party solution, along with tory rebels.That would have achieved a better kind of brexit. Once the election lost that chance then thar chance was lost.

Again - absolutely spot on IMO

I have said that the 'credit' or 'blame' for the actual outcome should be placed in a number of areas - a view that has previously been largely rejected

There were so many opportunities to agree a BRINO or at least a closely aligned deal. Those chances were lost due to the Remain factions deciding to go instead 'all-in' to reverse Brexit.

And it was the Remain factions - people bang on about the ERG - but they were utterly impotent and meaningless - if Corbyn and others had opted for a BRINO deal - they only got any importance in preventing May acting alone

Back between 2016 - Summer 2019 - the chances of this eventual deal being the outcome would have been miniscule - too small to be even considered.

Hindsight they say is a wonderful (and an also uncomfortable) thing. I genuinely do not make that comment in a 'being clever' way - I suggest that there are a few people like Grieve, Soubry and others that will be keeping a low profile.

I would have been happy with an outcome that meant that we were simply (genuinely) clear of the risks of integration - as it is I feel just simply lucky - like I have won a raffle that I did not buy a ticket for

 

[bluethrunthru]

The end result - what we have now - feels like some perverse game of 'pass the parcel' - with this deal being the last one to get a seat - pure luck

think you are mixing up pass the parcel with musical chairs there fella - lol

 

[Vic]

Sorry - and I do not mean to turn the thread into a discussion on the best practices of managing change/transformation programmes, but.....

You are missing the point(s) completely with those comments

What you have set out with the 16.2 - 17.4 bit would be just one of the many challenges for one of the workstreams within a change programme to deal with - and probably anywhere the top priorities/risks of the programme in planning to achieve its 'Go-Live'

Your comments I suggest just reflect your denial that Brexit has happened - only IMO

Just for fun, no waffling - what would your virtual workstream have come up with to "deal with" the 16.2 - 17.4 problem? (Bear in mind that you're unusual and most of the people working on the workstream would have voted Remain. What would be the remit of the workstream? How to reconcile the irreconcilable or produce another stage in the political lies about Brexit?)

I am serious. I don't believe you could even set the parameters for that workstream without having a workstream to set the parameters, especially as from the outset you didn't want the only easy way to do it - BRINO.

 

[mcfc1632]

If they had done that, they’d have maybe gained/retained supporters in the red wall but lost a lot to the LibDems, just off the top of my head we’d have ended up with a hung parliament and probably Parliament being blocked for some time over the issue.

Absolutely - what has occurred could only ever have happened if it was the policy of a government with a thumping majority - and no need to accommodate the view of any other group.

It really is staggering that events unravelled as they did.