Mëtal Bikër said:
The simple thing i want to know is this, right now is the United situation comfortable, cause for concern, totally fluffed?
I try to look at it dispassionately but I'd definitely say it's cause for concern at the moment.
The simplest test is not profit and loss but how much cash do they generate. The last two years they've generated around £90m of free cash from their operations (that's their business before interest and capital repayments, purchase of any fixed assets and transfers).
So that's the pot that they have to pay all those other things from. It's like saying what have I got left after paying my mortgage, gas, electric, council tax etc. That's the money you put towards holidays, clothes and other luxuries but also paying off your credit card.
From that (just under) £90m they have to pay something like £43m in interest on their bonds. The rest is therefore available for other uses. The Glazers have to fins some way of paying off their expensive PIK notes, which are racking up interest at 14.25% and may soon be going up to over 16%. These have to be paid back in 2017 at the latest and they need to take at least £40m a year from the rags for the next 6 years to do that, I reckon. The terms of the bond meant they could do that, as well as takig another £6m in directors fees.
So if you add £43m, £40m and £6m, that doesn't leave much change from £90m. So even while their income is high, with regular CL football and 75,000 crowds (they pull in over £3m per matchday) they will struggle to fund big transfers unless they sell players. That assumes the Glazers take out that £40m in full but if they don't then they won't clear the PIK notes which are racking up interest. So they have to make a choice - do they leave money in the club for players or do they clear their PIK notes debt? One or other has to give. And they've made no arrangements to repay the £500m bonds in 2017.
If their income starts dropping and, in the worst case, they lose out on CL money (probably worth over £40m a season to them across all income streams) then all they can do is pay the bond interest. That means no money for players and none for the Glazers. Then they are totally fluffed.