Yes obviously, if a player has a high xG and averages above it then they’ve done very well. That’s not happening right now though.
Nor does he average above his xG since his form fell off over two years ago.
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I like that in the sense I know you to be in the Sterling negative camp but are bringing data to the argument.
If you've not tried it, FBref is more robust for xG than the instant understat algorithm.
Sterling fares very well compared to the other big hitters (and Jesus) for the last 4 seasons- +5.5 from 52.5 npxG as per the table. Sterling was -1 on fbref last season and -1.4 in 20/21. So yes the last 2 have been his poor years but at the moment it's so marginal it's just variance - Kane, Mane, Salah etc suffer the same whilst Son is a freak and Gabby was very poor.
I disagree with you about his form in 21/22. Up to the November international break he had only started 4 out of 11 PL games and 0 out of 4 CL group games. After the international break and up until late in the season his form was generally good. In fact, I go as far to say he contributed more to the PL win than any of the he other 4 in in the front 5 rotation albeit not at previous levels.
My opinion will be torn to shreds by many on here so I'll try and back it up.
1. the best manager in the world picked him more than the others despite the fall-out. Sure, still rotated in the league but got the most minutes of the front 5.
2. his stats were good - using understat (its easier to filter than fbref) here are the top 6 scorers in the league since November. Not bad eh? -1.35 under npxG but fuck me look at Salah and Kane.
3. For a variety of reasons I store lots of football and City data including amongst other things the results of the Bluemoon Man of the Match poll. The results of a broad spread of Bluemoon posters reflects a more positive narrative about his form in 21/22.
Total Votes for the season where registering 10 or more votes in a game and figures in brackets are for MOTM and 2nd place ie Bernie MOTM 9 times and 2nd 5 times:
3456 - Bernardo (9+5)
2892- KDB (8+2)
1655 - Rodri (3+5)
1394 - Sterling (5+3)
1133 - Gabby (2+1)
1105 - Gundog (3+2)
The scores above can mask the shit games. So another way of approaching the data for consistency is looking at the games where a player has 10 or more votes. For the last 75% of the season (when Sterling a regular starter again) there were just 4 players who had managed that more than 10 times. Closest was Cancelo with 9 times.
14- KDB
13- Bernardo
12- Rodri
12 - Sterling
I'm obviously a Sterling fan boy.The positives outweigh the negatives. Unsurprisingly I'm a fan boy of the rest of them who have made big contributions. He has a total respect from me for the brilliant contribution he has made over the last 5 years of our domestic domination. But I'm glad he's gone and he can fuck off with his recent comments but ultimately I don't care about them.