Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Sir peace frog]

Just tell them it's futile.

and do not let it pass, erm it carried on, i'm not even sure that was an actual thing, so much bullshit and propaganda flying about

 

[inbetween]

It's the first time in my life where when I go to bed at night, the thought at least passes through my mind that - however unlikely it may be - I might wake up to find that there's been various nuclear strikes. Or even, worst case, that I might not even wake up at all.

Anyone who is not remotely concerned about this, has not been paying attention.

There should be a concern but it's hugely unlikely that nuclear weapons will be used. You have to consider the end goal of their use, for Putin there is no end goal except suicide and then what was the point? You cannot use a nuclear weapon as an offensive weapon, it's impossible because doing so secures your own demise. Putin represents one country with nuclear weapons whereas the west represents many so he basically cannot win and so cannot use them.

Ukraine will become one of two things, it could be a winner for Russia where he takes Ukraine and gets whatever he wants at the cost of all ties with the west. Or, Ukraine becomes his bargaining chip to broker some compromise and what that means is up for debate.

I am betting on the latter however it depends on how it happens. It could end in ceasefire and withdrawal but that would be a huge defeat for Putin. If this carries on though then it's inevitable that Russia will eventually kill off the Ukrainian government and then there is no-one to negotiate with. If that happens then all bets are off really.

Their plan now is probably to push into Kyiv, target the Ukraine government where afterwards they'll withdraw and return to the puppet government tactics whilst negotiating avoiding war with the west. It's how the west responds to this which will define if we end up in WW3 or not....

The most interesting thing is how Russia and Ukraine have met for talks. I'm not surprised at Ukraine turning up (obviously) but Russia turning up is a big indication of their willingness to end this quickly.

 

[SWP's back]

Not meaning to single you out, but replying with a more general point...

I understand everyone wants to see the weedy kid standing up to the school bully and giving him a bloody nose. Of course we want to see Putin turning around and pulling out.

But realistically, this is just not going to happen. Admirable - hugely admirable and courageous though the Ukrainian resistance may be - I honestly think it's futile. The longer it goes on, the more lives are lost, injuries sustained, buildings destroyed.

I am afraid I think there can be only one outcome here (sadly). No matter how well intentioned, I think the west's efforts to prop up the Ukrainian defence are ultimately just making it worse.

Then you’ve not been paying attention to the experts saying that if this war lasts more than ten days then Russia will be fucked as they don’t have the supplies to continue past then and didn’t expect to meet this much resistance.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Stupid question , is the War happening because of the Americans ?

Someone explain

Read this, mate.

‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes

Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back.

www.politico.com

“He’s said, repeatedly, that Russian and European borders have changed many times. And in his speeches, he’s gone after various former Russian and Soviet leaders, he’s gone after Lenin and he’s gone after the communists, because in his view they ruptured the Russian empire, they lost Russian lands in the revolution, and yes, Stalin brought some of them back into the fold again like the Baltic States and some of the lands of Ukraine that had been divided up during World War II, but they were lost again with the dissolution of the USSR. Putin’s view is that borders change, and so the borders of the old Russian imperium are still in play for Moscow to dominate now.”

Here’s a map of the Russian Empire at its greatest extent:


Also, I posted this a few days ago:

It’s not really anything to do with NATO being on his border. He simply wants a disunited and weak West, and a larger more powerful Russia.

For me, his two most important quotes…

“The collapse of the Soviet empire was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”, 2005
(Although not from a Communism point-of-view since he also once said “communism is a blind alley, far away from the mainstream of civilisation" - which I do agree with.)

“The cause of Peter the Great is still alive” (2019)
(Peter the Great founded the Russian Empire and was the man who had the biggest aims for a greatest Russian expanse possible. Putin has a statue of Peter the Great on his desk.)

…tell you everything you need to know.

When you look at the main list of things that he’s gone about to achieve his aims, I think it’s clear that a disunited and weak West, and a larger more powerful Russia is what he wants.

Takeover Russian state TV (in Russia and output around the world), spreading misinformation and Russian propaganda. Get this into countries in the West and you tickle the interests of West hating Westerners who think they’re edgy for watching alternative news output. This might seem small, even insignificant, but it’s the basis for many things. You peak the internet of people who you can exploit to do further damage.

Puppets in power in other countries. Yanukovych in Ukraine and Trump in USA were his puppets. Currently, Lukashenko in Belarus and Orban in Hungary are doing his dirty work in Europe.

Meddling in elections/referendums. Every election in Ukraine going back to 2004 has had Russia’s tentacles all over them. The 2016 and 2020 USA elections saw Russian interference towards the Clinton and Biden presidential drives. Also, Brexit…

He’s spread misinformation into the West across numerous topics, making our societies sceptical of everything and gullible to a lot of it with the amount of it there is. He’s not alone in this as it’s very likely China and North Korea also do this.

Off the back of the misinformation, the online war within the West was started that sees two extremes of an topic forever arguing online, or demonstrating their extremism in protests (Brexit, BLM, MAGA, Qanon, ‘cancel-cultre’, woke v gammon, Covid conspiracies, vaccine conspiracies, NATO’s “threat”/“imperialism” etc.)… If any of us could ever work back through to find the first Tweets, posts, threads, articles, videos etc. online of any issue or argument, you’ll probably link back to some far left or far right or West hating tosser who’s been manipulated, paid, forced, or happy to post their Russian (or Chinese/NKorean) misinformation or extreme argument online. And the disagreements spread like wildfire across comments sections and forums and in every day conversations.

There are likely many more things we’ve never even heard of or would consider, that he’s done.

He used the British public to get Britain to leave and weaken the EU, he’s got Orban who’s said he’s going to weaken the EU further from the inside, he used Trump to try and break up NATO by getting USA to leave it… and every **** everywhere is arguing, falling out, pointing fingers on each extreme of every argument.

He was more than winning in disuniting and weakening the West!

With his expansion of Russia:
He’s been after Georgia for years.
He went into Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in 2014.
He’s gone into all of Ukraine this year which he’s been planning for a long time (and I reposted something earlier that @dave_blue12 posted yesterday with reasons why Ukraine and Ukraine’s land is so important and so enticing for Russia to invade and takeover).
This week, he’s threatened Finland and Sweden of doing the same to them as he’s doing in Ukraine.
Moldova? Romania? Poland?
Kaliningrad part of Russia and can be bridged back to Russia by taking over the Baltic countries.
I think Belarus and maybe even Hungary would be easy to manipulate.
He’s talked heavily about the Russian Empire and Soviet Union lands many times, even this week!

That might answer your question a bit.

Here’s the post from @dave_blue12 that shows how important Ukraine is:

I haven’t checked the veracity of the list but this potentially puts the importance of Ukraine in an entirely different light


Mind blowing stats, worth a read.

We are all watching the news like hawks... And maybe like the rest of us you are wondering why are Russia invading Ukraine.

For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine matter

“
This is why Ukraine matters.

It is the second largest country by area in Europe by area and has a population
of over 40 million - more than Poland.

Minerals:
Ukraine ranks:
⚗1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
⚙2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;

3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)

Ukraine is an important agricultural country: ‍

1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.

Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.

Ukraine is an important industrialised country:

1st in Europe in ammonia production;

Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
☢3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
☄9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
⛓10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

Ukraine matters

That is why its independence is important to the rest of the world

.

Ukraine is also positionally important and gives a land bridge to Crimea.

Also, Putin does not recognise Ukraine’s Christian Orthodoxy and wants to get rid of it.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Then you’ve not been paying attention to the experts saying that if this war lasts more than ten days then Russia will be fucked as they don’t have the supplies to continue past then and didn’t expect to meet this much resistance.

I have, and they are nonsense.

It's academic however, because they aren't holding out for 10 days.

 

[GaudinoMotors]

Wow - I'm in love - who is this in the EU?

 

[andyhinch]

The EU president is giving it large, that boil some piss.

 

[Scottyboi]

and do not let it pass, erm it carried on, i'm not even sure that was an actual thing, so much bullshit and propaganda flying about

The translation is most likely off, but course it was an actual thing wtf you talking about lol.

 

[RobMCFC]

America had 650,000 soldiers in Vietnam at one stage (although only about 40 per cent fighting) and dropped 7.5 million tons of bombs - double the amount dropped on Europe and Asia during World War II.

And still couldn't win.

Yes. That's another great example. The bottom line is that you need the support of the majority of the population to successfully take over a country. I'm sure Putin - or at least his generals - are aware of this.

 

[SWP's back]

What you on about, I ain't a fucking politician or a military general it's just an opinion on a football forum lmao.

Downing arms right now is them surrending as Putin will move into the capital and any chance of continuing to fight back is gone.

You're scared like everyone is and would rather see Ukraine join Russia than risk your current life being impacted.

Haha he’s doing what he did yesterday in thinking that BM has a say in what happens. Yesterday he needed a tampon change on nukes and today he wants Ukraine to throw in the towel so he can sleep better at night.

I’m glad I’m not in a foxhole with him, it sounds like his arse has gone. Luckily, the Ukrainians are made of sterner stuff.