Russian invasion of Ukraine

BlueAnorak said:
Poland has involved article 4 in the NATO charter:

news.sky.com

Ukraine war latest: EU warned it's 'money today or blood tomorrow' as it faces crucial defence decision

EU leaders are meeting for pivotal talks on the bloc's efforts to fund Ukraine's defence after Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow was bracing for another year of war. Meanwhile, three people have been killed in Ukrainian drone attacks on a Russian port. Follow the latest here.
news.sky.com news.sky.com


Basically the Atlantic Council is convened and all nations discuss what happened last night...
Click to expand...
 
A Russian Catastrophe has been unfolding in the Donbas - Russia took resources away from other front to build up a force mass of 100,000 to drive onto Dobropillia... Alas for Putin...

euromaidanpress.com

Frontline report: Ukrainian hackers turn Russian security cameras into targeting systems for missile strikes - Euromaidan Press

Ukrainian forces discovered massive Russian troop concentrations by infiltrating security camera networks near key bases, then launched preemptive strikes that destroyed entire convoys before they reached the battlefield.
euromaidanpress.com euromaidanpress.com
 
BlueAnorak said:
A Russian Catastrophe has been unfolding in the Donbas - Russia took resources away from other front to build up a force mass of 100,000 to drive onto Dobropillia... Alas for Putin...

euromaidanpress.com

Frontline report: Ukrainian hackers turn Russian security cameras into targeting systems for missile strikes - Euromaidan Press

Ukrainian forces discovered massive Russian troop concentrations by infiltrating security camera networks near key bases, then launched preemptive strikes that destroyed entire convoys before they reached the battlefield.
euromaidanpress.com euromaidanpress.com
Click to expand...
Good and let’s hope more and more die, nowhere seems to be safe now.
 
Yigal Levin, Ukrainian military expert:

A very realistic next scenario could be this: during exercises, Russian soldiers “get lost,” wander into some border village, and stay there.

Whether it’s Poland, Lithuania, or Finland — doesn’t matter.

Maybe they “lost” a soldier during maneuvers and now they have to search for him, maybe equipment broke down, maybe some soldiers got injured, or maybe, you know, “Ukrainian EW.”

That’s exactly how they’d present it to NATO. But there are plenty of other scenarios — it’s not hard to come up with more.

What would NATO do in this case? Strike a platoon or company of soldiers in a border village?

What if they really got lost? What if they really are injured? What if someone genuinely went missing?

Striking “lost” and injured soldiers would be a direct act of war and aggression.

So what would NATO actually do?

Russia wouldn’t care about those soldiers, and Putin knows how to take a step back: when the Turks shot down his warplane, he swallowed it.

When, during another Israeli strike on Syria, Syrian air defenses missed and shot down a Russian plane, killing Russian officers, he swallowed it again.

That’s how Putin acts when struck: he retreats.

He’s a security service man — trained not to charge head-on.

But if you don’t hit him, if you don’t hit the Russians, they become emboldened — that’s a well-known truth.

So they won’t mind losing a platoon of “strays,” even if NATO strikes them.

When Turkey shot down his jet, he said: “Are the Turks helping ISIS terrorists?”

Here, he’ll say: “So now you’re helping the Kyiv regime not only with weapons and money but also with direct strikes?”

And we circle back to the question: what would NATO say then?

As I see it, there’s only one way out — an iron wall.

No trade with Russia (France recently bought energy from Russia), even at your own expense.

No talk of freezes or “the day after” — as if NATO soldiers will be sipping coffee in sunny Kyiv while the front is frozen.

For example, Russia conducts exercises at the border?

Fine, no problem: issue an official warning — anyone crossing the border with weapons, whether intentionally or by mistake, will be struck.

And also officially state: this isn’t an act of war, we’re not interested in Russian territory, we won’t strike inside Russia, but the border is a closed zone — anyone crossing it, by land, water, or air, will be hit.

Remember, Russia always operates in “grey zones”: private military companies, “little green men,” mercenaries, “strays,” “accidental” incursions or overflights, and so on.

The only effective response to this “grey zones” is absolute clarity and strict protocols: for action A (even if it’s ambiguous and may not be A at all), reaction B follows immediately, regardless of how clear A is.

Relations with Russia can only be like this — an iron wall.

Anything else is a trap and playing by the Kremlin’s rules.
 
Whatever we think of Putin, he's got the better of Trump largely by saying not much and not agreeing to anything. He's literally sat there, bided his time and done whatever he's wanted to do - ditto Netanyahu. There's clearly no such thing as the court of international opinion any more, while we saw yesterday in Doha what Israel thinks of diplomacy. Similarly the ICC and the UN are now as good as defunct, perfunctory at best.

Trump sounding off every day and making threats has literally achieved nothing but embarrassment. He's painted himself into a corner time and time again while the only people he's actually gone in hard on are his own people - Americans in Democratic cities!

His pitiful performance in Alaska a few weeks ago was effectively his death knell. It will just take longer for some to see it than others. My guess is that Putin has seen it as a weakness and has since been feted by the leaders of China, India and North Korea. Who knows what was said or what guarantees he was given there but last night's attack on Poland shows how emboldened Putin suddenly is.

It's certainly a game-changer and while we head into an uncertain future - almost certainly without America - it will be interesting to see who steps up and who doesn't. Interestingly, Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski told Hungary’s Putin-admiring prime minister Viktor Orbán to get off the fence today; it was time someone did. The gloves really are off!
 
CTID1977 said:
A very realistic next scenario could be this: during exercises, Russian soldiers “get lost,” wander into some border village, and stay there.

Whether it’s Poland, Lithuania, or Finland — doesn’t matter.
Click to expand...
These exercises will be very closely monitored from very close by, so I very much doubt they will get into Poland or any other of the Baltic states.

A bigger worry is that they are a cover for another incursion into Ukraine from the north.
 
BTH said:
Whatever we think of Putin, he's got the better of Trump largely by saying not much and not agreeing to anything. He's literally sat there, bided his time and done whatever he's wanted to do - ditto Netanyahu. There's clearly no such thing as the court of international opinion any more, while we saw yesterday in Doha what Israel thinks of diplomacy. Similarly the ICC and the UN are now as good as defunct, perfunctory at best.

Trump sounding off every day and making threats has literally achieved nothing but embarrassment. He's painted himself into a corner time and time again while the only people he's actually gone in hard on are his own people - Americans in Democratic cities!

His pitiful performance in Alaska a few weeks ago was effectively his death knell. It will just take longer for some to see it than others. My guess is that Putin has seen it as a weakness and has since been feted by the leaders of China, India and North Korea. Who knows what was said or what guarantees he was given there but last night's attack on Poland shows how emboldened Putin suddenly is.

It's certainly a game-changer and while we head into an uncertain future - almost certainly without America - it will be interesting to see who steps up and who doesn't. Interestingly, Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski told Hungary’s Putin-admiring prime minister Viktor Orbán to get off the fence today; it was time someone did. The gloves really are off!
Click to expand...
I reckon in China last week Putin got the nod to do this, China will then whilst the west is busy take Taiwan, India will carry on buying Russian oil and NKorea will just supply more lambs to the slaughter. Sadly I think we are entering the start of a major conflict/s unless someone takes Putin out or Trump dies because only the usa can put a stop to this. Trump will not back NATO, just like WW2 they supplied us stuff but until Pearl Harbor stayed out of it, this could go the same way. No one is attacking USA mainland so he will chicken out, China will take Taiwan and he will do nothing there either.
 
BTH said:
Whatever we think of Putin, he's got the better of Trump largely by saying not much and not agreeing to anything. He's literally sat there, bided his time and done whatever he's wanted to do - ditto Netanyahu. There's clearly no such thing as the court of international opinion any more, while we saw yesterday in Doha what Israel thinks of diplomacy. Similarly the ICC and the UN are now as good as defunct, perfunctory at best.
Click to expand...
The setup of the UN has long been defunct where direct conflict between the east and west is concerned.

It might be useful for eduction, or health, or even keeping peace between some nations like Cyprus (Greece) and Turkey, who had peace agreements, but it'll never get agreement in conflicts like this.
 
Blue Maverick said:
I reckon in China last week Putin got the nod to do this, China will then whilst the west is busy take Taiwan, India will carry on buying Russian oil and NKorea will just supply more lambs to the slaughter. Sadly I think we are entering the start of a major conflict/s unless someone takes Putin out or Trump dies because only the usa can put a stop to this. Trump will not back NATO, just like WW2 they supplied us stuff but until Pearl Harbor stayed out of it, this could go the same way. No one is attacking USA mainland so he will chicken out, China will take Taiwan and he will do nothing there either.
Click to expand...
He’ll say he’s not happy about it
 
CTID1977 said:
Yigal Levin, Ukrainian military expert:

A very realistic next scenario could be this: during exercises, Russian soldiers “get lost,” wander into some border village, and stay there.

Whether it’s Poland, Lithuania, or Finland — doesn’t matter.

Maybe they “lost” a soldier during maneuvers and now they have to search for him, maybe equipment broke down, maybe some soldiers got injured, or maybe, you know, “Ukrainian EW.”

That’s exactly how they’d present it to NATO. But there are plenty of other scenarios — it’s not hard to come up with more.

What would NATO do in this case? Strike a platoon or company of soldiers in a border village?

What if they really got lost? What if they really are injured? What if someone genuinely went missing?

Striking “lost” and injured soldiers would be a direct act of war and aggression.

So what would NATO actually do?

Russia wouldn’t care about those soldiers, and Putin knows how to take a step back: when the Turks shot down his warplane, he swallowed it.

When, during another Israeli strike on Syria, Syrian air defenses missed and shot down a Russian plane, killing Russian officers, he swallowed it again.

That’s how Putin acts when struck: he retreats.

He’s a security service man — trained not to charge head-on.

But if you don’t hit him, if you don’t hit the Russians, they become emboldened — that’s a well-known truth.

So they won’t mind losing a platoon of “strays,” even if NATO strikes them.

When Turkey shot down his jet, he said: “Are the Turks helping ISIS terrorists?”

Here, he’ll say: “So now you’re helping the Kyiv regime not only with weapons and money but also with direct strikes?”

And we circle back to the question: what would NATO say then?

As I see it, there’s only one way out — an iron wall.

No trade with Russia (France recently bought energy from Russia), even at your own expense.

No talk of freezes or “the day after” — as if NATO soldiers will be sipping coffee in sunny Kyiv while the front is frozen.

For example, Russia conducts exercises at the border?

Fine, no problem: issue an official warning — anyone crossing the border with weapons, whether intentionally or by mistake, will be struck.

And also officially state: this isn’t an act of war, we’re not interested in Russian territory, we won’t strike inside Russia, but the border is a closed zone — anyone crossing it, by land, water, or air, will be hit.

Remember, Russia always operates in “grey zones”: private military companies, “little green men,” mercenaries, “strays,” “accidental” incursions or overflights, and so on.

The only effective response to this “grey zones” is absolute clarity and strict protocols: for action A (even if it’s ambiguous and may not be A at all), reaction B follows immediately, regardless of how clear A is.

Relations with Russia can only be like this — an iron wall.

Anything else is a trap and playing by the Kremlin’s rules.
Click to expand...
 
TinFoilHat said:
Poland: Russia just invaded our territory!

NATO: It was more of an incursion so doesn't trigger article 5. Sorry...
Click to expand...
Is sending a drone to kill someone any different from sending 2 KGB officers to murder someone using nerve agent?

We did nothing then (despite what some on here say) we, and the rest of Europe, will do nothing now.

Edit: @BlueAnorak has already mentioned it
 
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