The Conservative Party

[TinFoilHat]

Can’t ever see the Tories electing a woman, or a non-white as leader…

Starmer just claimed she's the favourite in parliament.

If she was as knowledgeable as arrogant as she comes across she would be a decent leader for them.

 

[Gabriel]

Patel knocked out and Jenrick top of the pops after round one.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Patel knocked out and Jenrick top of the pops after round one.

Difficult to see many Patel votes going to Stride/Tugendhat, so I'd expect Stride to go next on Tuesday.
There doesn't seem much value in tactical voting yet before the conference.

I assume the 3 who didn't vote are those running the vote.

 

[Gabriel]

Difficult to see many Patel votes going to Stride/Tugendhat, so I'd expect Stride to go next on Tuesday.
There doesn't seem much value in tactical voting yet before the conference.

I assume the 3 who didn't vote are those running the vote.

Blackman, chair of the 1922 committee and organiser, was one of the three, but the other two abstainers have not been identified, as far as I can see. Round two on Tuesday next, before the four remaining contenders turn to wooing conference. Irrespective of the eventual winner, with the parliamentary party so divided, they’ll likely be cannibalised and never be put before the general electorate.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Blackman, chair of the 1922 committee and organiser, was one of the three, but the other two abstainers have not been identified, as far as I can see. Round two on Tuesday next, before the four remaining contenders turn to wooing conference. Irrespective of the eventual winner, with the parliamentary party so divided, they’ll likely be cannibalised and never be put before the general electorate.

There would surely be more than just Blackman overseeing? But Sky reckon that Sunak is one.

I agree, that's a terrible split. I think 1 will quit during/at the end of the conference session (Tugendhat probably) leaving 3 others for the final vote - Jenrick, Badenoch and probably Cleverley.

The issue is whether Jenrick/Badenoch will play nice if losing, and that they're both on the right. The 118

 

[Gabriel]

There would surely be more than just Blackman overseeing? But Sky reckon that Sunak is one.

I agree, that's a terrible split. I think 1 will quit during/at the end of the conference session (Tugendhat probably) leaving 3 others for the final vote - Jenrick, Badenoch and probably Cleverley.

The issue is whether Jenrick/Badenoch will play nice if losing, and that they're both on the right. The 118

It will be five leaders in just over eight years, almost all of those spent in power, so it’s difficult to imagine them settling on and fully backing one person now they are in opposition. Brexit has ripped the dressing off and exposed the stitches that held different sides together, but with little hope of returning to power anytime soon, the wound will not be healed and there will be much more bloodletting, starting at conference.

 

[Mike N]

Jesus Christ, the talent puddle is very shallow indeed. What an awful, uninspiring bunch.

Every single one of them has their prints on most of the last 14 years that has left our country on it’s knees.

 

[Vic]

You're dreaming.

May I remind you of this:

Labour polled 9,708,716 votes in the last election.The Conservatives polled 6,828,925. Reform polled 4,117,610.

i.e. The "right" polled 1.2m votes more than Labour. Given just how unpopular the Tories were after 14 years, and considering the high engery prices, higher interest rates, NHS issues etc, this is a staggeringly terrible result for Labour. Only the peculiarities of our first-past-the-post electoral system - which only really works well in a 2-party state - has resulted in such a huge majority for Labour.

But it is a vulnerable huge majority. Apparently a 1% swing from Labour to Tory, loses Labour 50 seats. A 2% swing loese them 100 seats. If the Tories manage to convince just a few of the Reform voters to come back to the Conservatives, then Labour will lose the next election.

Conversely, to give you some hope, if the Tories fail to attract sufficient numbers of Reform voters then the right wing vote will again be split and Labour will win again, as last time.

So it is ESSENTIAL that the Tories pick a right wing, anti-mass-immigration candidate. Jenrick and Badenoch are the only two sensible options.

So the "right" polled more than Labour. The "left", Labour+LibDem+Green+minor "left" parties polled 55%.

As for the last bit, they were ministers in the last high-immigration * Tory government. * And mostly non-white, thanks to Brexit. (But then the Bloviator was all in favour of Brexit because the EU was racist as it favoured freedom of movement only for Europeans, who were mostly white.)

For the sake of the country, I'd rather have a one-nation Tory leader, rather than someone spouting the sort of anti-immigration rhetoric that causes "concerned citizens" to go rioting. (At least they haven't quite got the knack of Braverman's Nazi-isms.) Electorally, I think you underestimate the demographic reality that young people are more happily "multicultural" than the ageing Tory voters. Was the estimate that death costs the Tories 2% of their "natural" voters each year?

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

You're dreaming.

May I remind you of this:

Labour polled 9,708,716 votes in the last election.The Conservatives polled 6,828,925. Reform polled 4,117,610.

i.e. The "right" polled 1.2m votes more than Labour. Given just how unpopular the Tories were after 14 years, and considering the high engery prices, higher interest rates, NHS issues etc, this is a staggeringly terrible result for Labour. Only the peculiarities of our first-past-the-post electoral system - which only really works well in a 2-party state - has resulted in such a huge majority for Labour.

But it is a vulnerable huge majority. Apparently a 1% swing from Labour to Tory, loses Labour 50 seats. A 2% swing loese them 100 seats. If the Tories manage to convince just a few of the Reform voters to come back to the Conservatives, then Labour will lose the next election.

Conversely, to give you some hope, if the Tories fail to attract sufficient numbers of Reform voters then the right wing vote will again be split and Labour will win again, as last time.

So it is ESSENTIAL that the Tories pick a right wing, anti-mass-immigration candidate. Jenrick and Badenoch are the only two sensible options.

Will you be leaving Bradley Stoke when more black and brown people move into the area?

 

[johnnytapia]

The worst type of person - rides on the coat tails of others then pulls the ladder up shouting - "thats them - they are down there - don't let them up they are the ones you need to stop"

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