west didsblue
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 2 Oct 2011
- Messages
- 32,309
Three things wrong with that analysis. Plenty of ‘traditional Labour voters’ voted Reform so if they weren’t there, their votes wouldn’t all necessarily have gone to the Tories.Make ZERO mistake. There's two reasons Starmer won, and won a 170 seat majority at that.
1. Because people were truly pissed off and especially, bored with 14 years of Tory government and wanted a change, and
2. Because the right vote was split down the middle between Tory and Reform, whereas the left vote was not. Had there been a unified party on the right, Starmer might not even be PM right now, which given (1) is TRULY remarkable.
He is the most unpopular Labour leader to ever win a GE, and surely this will be his last and only stab at it.
Secondly, in terms of the popular vote Labour, Lib Dem and Green are all ‘left’ to most people and Labour still won in spite of the ‘left’ vote being split three ways.
Thirdly there was a lot of tactical voting where people voted for the party most likely to beat the Tories, hence the 72 Lib Dem MPs. That suppressed the Labour vote in those constituencies.
So that’s 3 mistakes as far as I can see.