The Title Race - 2021/22

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Plenty of sides play oddly in the match before a final, some players playing for a starting spot, some trying to avoid injury all a bit nervous.
Leeds taking anything would be great but I would like us to get this title on our performance not rely on others.
Dippers all giddy this morning thanks to spurs not because they managed to squeeze home a win at home against Norwich.
Our game against dippers just got more interesting and I can't wait.
 
Implied probability from betting and data modellers is 76%-to 78%. Feels about right.
As a one-off event, a penalty is about the same. Felt confident with Mahrez yeterday and feel the same about the title.

Last 50 years or so the team winning the title has ALWAYS won most games or has won most games jointly with someone else. Like 2012. If we win more games than Liverpool by the end of the season we win it. Simple as that.If we end up winning the same it will be very tight - GD etc. Feel confident because we are 3 wins ahead of them at the moment.

Assuming games in hand are all won the gap is 3 points, we can drop 3 points to them before the home game and the title is still in our hands. There is a 70%+ probability we win or draw the home game and with a win or draw the title would still be in our hands. (The draw would obviously be the worst option but still in our hands if we then match their results and better GD).

We've got this...
 
Fixtures before we play Liverpool:

City (5)
Everton A
Man Utd H
Palace A
Brighton H
Burnley A

Liverpool (6)
Leeds H
West Ham H
Brighton A
Arsenal A
Man Utd H
Watford H

Their game against Arsenal has been rescheduled so they have an extra game and four of their next six are at home so I'd be pretty satisfied if we can maintain a three point gap until we play them. If we manage to beat them at our place, we'll be six points ahead with just six games remaining and you'd fancy us to see it over the line from there.


Fixtures after we play Liverpool:

City (6)
Wolves A
Watford H
Leeds A
Newcastle H
West Ham A
Villa H

Liverpool (6)
Villa A
Everton H
Newcastle A
Tottenham H
Southampton A
Wolves H

I'd say the run-in is pretty even as we both play teams that'll likely need points to either stay up or get into Europe.
 
David El Mago Silva said:
Fixtures before we play Liverpool:

City (5)
Everton A
Man Utd H
Palace A
Brighton H
Burnley A

Liverpool (6)
Leeds H
West Ham H
Brighton A
Arsenal A
Man Utd H
Watford H

Their game against Arsenal has been rescheduled so they have an extra game and four of their next six are at home so I'd be pretty satisfied if we can maintain a three point gap until we play them. If we manage to beat them at our place, we'll be six points ahead with just six games remaining and you'd fancy us to see it over the line from there.


Fixtures after we play Liverpool:

City (6)
Wolves A
Watford H
Leeds A
Newcastle H
West Ham A
Villa H

Liverpool (6)
Villa A
Everton H
Newcastle A
Tottenham H
Southampton A
Wolves H

I'd say the run-in is pretty even as we both play teams that'll likely need points to either stay up or get into Europe.
Click to expand...
Assuming both ourselves and the scousers progress in the FA Cup (probable looking at the draw), our game against Brighton and theirs against the rags will get moved into the ‘after’ category as the quarter finals are over the weekend when those fixtures are currently scheduled.
 
Alfie Budd said:
Assuming both ourselves and the scousers progress in the FA Cup (probable looking at the draw), our game against Brighton and theirs against the rags will get moved into the ‘after’ category as the quarter finals are over the weekend when those fixtures are currently scheduled.
Click to expand...
Well spotted, I didn't think about that.
 
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