The Title Race 2022/23

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Lot's of debating over home/away records so some stats below for those that love them.

Overall home/away records below. Arsenal play the 5th best team at home in Newcastle and the 4th best team away from home in Brighton. We're playing mid-lower table teams in terms of their respective home and away records so our run in whilst looking tough is easier statistically.

Arsenal - best away record W11 D3 L3 - 2nd best home record W13 D3 L1

Newcastle away (5th best home record W10 D5 L1)
Brighton home (4th best away record W7 D4 L5)
Forest away (12th best home record W6 D6 L5)
Wolves home (18th best away record W2 D5 L10)

City - 2nd best away record W10 D3 L3 - best home form W15 D1 L1

Leeds home (19th best away record W2 D3 L12)
Everton away (18th best home record W5 D3 L9)
Chelsea home (13th best away record W4 D4 L8)
Brighton away (9th best home record W8 D3 L4)
Brentford away (8th best home record W8 D7 L2)

I think beating Leeds will be a real kick in the teeth. It means they can't go top even if they win and I think they'll throw in the towel at St James' Park. If we fail to win it might just give them the boost they need to go and win up there. We'll see.
 
supercity88 said:
Lot's of debating over home/away records so some stats below for those that love them.

Overall home/away records below. Arsenal play the 5th best team at home in Newcastle and the 4th best team away from home in Brighton. We're playing mid-lower table teams in terms of their respective home and away records so our run in whilst looking tough is easier statistically.

Arsenal - best away record W11 D3 L3 - 2nd best home record W13 D3 L1

Newcastle away (5th best home record W10 D5 L1)
Brighton home (4th best away record W7 D4 L5)
Forest away (12th best home record W6 D6 L5)
Wolves home (18th best away record W2 D5 L10)

City - 2nd best away record W10 D3 L3 - best home form W15 D1 L1

Leeds home (19th best away record W2 D3 L12)
Everton away (18th best home record W5 D3 L9)
Chelsea home (13th best away record W4 D4 L8)
Brighton away (9th best home record W8 D3 L4)
Brentford away (8th best home record W8 D7 L2)

I think beating Leeds will be a real kick in the teeth. It means they can't go top even if they win and I think they'll throw in the towel at St James' Park. If we fail to win it might just give them the boost they need to go and win up there. We'll see.
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Those two lines make me nervous, come on City, come on Newcastle
 
I fancy a draw beetween Newcastle and Arsenal, meaning we would be 6 points clear (if we beat Leeds) with 4 games to play. So we could lose 2/4 of our final games and still win the league on GD, assuming Arsenal win all theirs.
 
Bluemanc100 said:
I don’t see that happening… I think the Tarquins will underestimate them and get their arses handed to them
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I doubt any Premier League team would ever underestimate another. Remember Arsenal will have a dozen analysts showing the players hours of footage, stats and data. They'll know everything about Newcastle, so I can't see how Arsenal would be so complacent (especially given the importance of the game) to 'underestimate' them.

Those issues do not exist in sports at such an elite level.

I hope Newcastle do batter them. But it won't be down to complacency from Arsenal. They'll prepare as well for this as any game.
 
jmant10 said:
I fancy a draw beetween Newcastle and Arsenal, meaning we would be 6 points clear (if we beat Leeds) with 4 games to play. So we could lose 2/4 of our final games and still win the league on GD, assuming Arsenal win all theirs.
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3.
 
Inter Me Nan said:
The landscape we have to navigate will be clearer after the weekend.
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If the referee performances of the last few games are any indication, this is the landscaping we’ll have to do.


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In case anybody hasn't worked it out themselves yet, the earliest we can win it is a week on Sunday.
10 days and 4 hours and we could be champions.
 
I reckon this is how it will play out.

City v Leeds: Win — 82 pts
Newcastle v Arse: Lose — 78 pts

Everton v City: Win — 85 pts
Arse v Brighton: Draw — 79 pts

We effectively win it on the 14th (as our GD will be far superior).
 
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