US Politics Thread

BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Betting/polls aside - the race for President in the US appears to be tied. In particular, this race remains impossible to call because it (almost certainly) comes down to a how a handful of voters in a small number of swing states will vote - the rest of America has made up its mind and it's up to these few swing state voters. Who knows how these individuals will vote?

Another problem is that the vote is so close that a last-minute news item, however slight, might make all the difference.

I hope (of course) that Harris wins. And I think she probably holds a slight advantage, even now. But who knows? It could easily go either way.
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Harris will win.
Polls are unreliable as pollsters try to adjust for the underscoring of Republican voters.
Betting markets a poor predictor.
All indications on the ground favour Harris: enthusiasm, turnout to rallies, volunteers knocking on doors.
She is better looking than the orange liar, though he does have the bigger tits.
 
KS55 said:
Harris will win.
Polls are unreliable as pollsters try to adjust for the underscoring of Republican voters.
Betting markets a poor predictor.
All indications on the ground favour Harris: enthusiasm, turnout to rallies, volunteers knocking on doors.
She is better looking than the orange liar, though he does have the bigger tits.
Click to expand...
WIth any luck whatsoever, I won't have the opportunity to post an "I told you so" response (though I wouldn't in any case), 3 weeks or so hence :-).

As far as betting markets go... at some point if the odds get too far out of mathematical expectation, then there's money to be made... a lot of money... which will attract institutional investors with enough capital to right the odds. Thing is, I don't know if such institutional investors are interested in the presidential odds market (occurs only once every 4 years) and it would likely take a ton of money and independent polling analysis to obtain better predictions. So probably it's the average bloke who is betting on gut instinct that controls the odds.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I welcome input from our non-American friends overseas. Even if their opinions are in disagreement with mine.

@Alvin-blue-qhd
With respect, your post contains opinions stated as fact, as well as ambiguous statements, whose meaning is unclear:
1) "Kamala may know nothing about how to rule America" - Opinion stated as fact. And I disagree.
2) " it's the "blinken, yellen and sullivan"s who run the country" - Ambiguous. I'm not sure what you mean, but I think I disagree.
3) "And that's the same with Trump" - Ambiguous/unclear. What's the same with Trump? I've actually no clue what you're attempting to say.

If you, Alvin, wish to clarify your post, I welcome that. Otherwise, your post seems to be another one of the "Trump is the same as Harris/Biden" posts which are obviously false.
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In my country, we have some media contents describes the process of dealing with America. Govenment vs Govenment. It gives me an impression that the way two governments make the decisions looks very similiar. Both sides heavily rely on intelligence agencies, technical personnel, and senior administrative officials. And both of them have the ability to make quick decisions.
I don't know if that should be called "deep state" which seems to be a negative word. But it makes me feel that it really doesn't matter who become the president. Sure different president brings different policy. I think even if Trump wins, there won't be too many big mistakes in US policy.
And Elon Musk gives me some confidences, it won't be too bad~~(He is a super star in my country!)
 
Alvin-blue-qhd said:
In my country, we have some media contents describes the process of dealing with America. Govenment vs Govenment. It gives me an impression that the way two governments make the decisions looks very similiar. Both sides heavily rely on intelligence agencies, technical personnel, and senior administrative officials. And both of them have the ability to make quick decisions.
I don't know if that should be called "deep state" which seems to be a negative word. But it makes me feel that it really doesn't matter who become the president. Sure different president brings different policy. I think even if Trump wins, there won't be too many big mistakes in US policy.
And Elon Musk gives me some confidences, it won't be too bad~~(He is a super star in my country!)
Click to expand...
What a crock of fucking shite those last two sentences are.
 
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